BRUSSELS - A recent request by the highest military commander of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for the authority to draw up full defense
plans for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, could lead to a serious rift in the
alliance as it wars over how to deal with Russia.
The move comes just two months after Russia's invasion of Georgia, and at a
time when Russia constitutes the only conceivable military threat for the three
Baltic members.
When Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the alliance in 2004, Afghanistan and
terrorism were NATO's top concerns, whereas Russia was seen as an aspiring
strategic partner.
The alliance therefore did not draw up "contingency plans" or full
defense strategies for the three Baltic states, a shortcoming which now looks
like an anachronism after the events in Georgia exposed NATO's soft underbelly.
Recognizing this, NATO's top commander, General James Craddock, has written to
the allies seeking approval to draw up the necessary plans. But getting the
go-ahead may prove less than straightforward, as NATO sources say Germany and
France have informally opposed Craddock's request.
The issue of contingency planning is extremely sensitive within NATO, not least
because the plans are classified. NATO spokesman James Appathurai told Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty on October 7 that he is not allowed to publicly
discuss contingency, and reiterated the alliance's standard pledge to defend
all of its members from all threats.
"What I can say is that NATO has had an extremely robust, flexible system in
place for 59 years, with hundreds of planners at [NATO headquarters] and
elsewhere to develop the necessary plans for the defense of this alliance in
any type of situation," Appathurai said.
Most exposed allies
Since their accession to NATO, the Baltic countries have made no secret of
their disappointment at the absence of concrete plans to defend them against
the Russian threat.
NATO officials privately concede that the three Baltic nations are the most
exposed among all 26 allies. Although none of the eastern European allies have
full contingency plans drawn up for their defense, some amount of planning has
been done for all - except Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Ronald D Asmus, a former senior US diplomat closely involved in NATO's
post-Cold War expansion, noted in the Wall Street Journal Europe on August 18
that the alliance "unilaterally refrained from such steps partly as a
confidence-building step toward Russia." Asmus now says NATO should reconsider.
All formal defense planning - "for a specific area against a specific threat,"
as one NATO official put it - requires the unanimous backing of all allies. In
the parlance of the alliance, it is a political decision.
The United States and Britain has strongly back contingency plans for the
Baltic countries. A senior US official said in Brussels on October 7 that NATO
must carry on with its "day-to-day" activities - including contingency
planning.
London's Daily Telegraph, which first broke the story, said Craddock recommends
Estonia, with its large Russian-speaking minority and increasingly fraught
relationship with Moscow, be the first Baltic beneficiary of a NATO military
risk-assessment study.
But many continental European allies, led by France and Germany, feel any such
move would threaten open confrontation with Russia.
This divergence of views threatens the alliance with a serious rift. After the
conflict in Georgia, many analysts see US and European interests parting ways
when it comes to Russia, and Germany in particular seems to conclude it cannot
afford to alienate Moscow.
Berlin's reasons are complex, stretching from Germany's dependence on Russian
energy to strategic balance of power calculations. Chancellor Angela Merkel on
October 3 publicly ruled out quick NATO Membership Action Plans (MAPs) for
Georgia and Ukraine, saying at a joint press conference with Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev in St Petersburg that the two countries' immediate integration
with NATO is not in German interests. NATO foreign ministers are scheduled to
debate the issue in December.
Baltic countries meanwhile fear that the trend towards accommodating Russia
could materially affect their security, and that political considerations could
begin to erode NATO's commitment to mutual defense.
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