Azeris baffled by Turkmen legal threat By Kenan Guluzade
BAKU - Political experts are baffled by a Turkmen announcement that it will
take Azerbaijan to court over their maritime boundary, saying the decision does
not seem to make political, business or legal sense.
European plans to diversify gas supply, by building the Nabucco pipeline from
the Caspian region to Austria, could be under threat from the unexpected
Turkmen claim, which would disrupt development of Caspian oil and gas fields
and interrupt two years of improving relations between Baku and Ashgabat.
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhamedov said just a month ago his country
was keen to join the Nabucco project, but the legal challenge could harm the
route by blocking production
from fields on or near the Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan maritime border.
The first sign of trouble began on July 24 when Berdimukhamedov announced he
would be appealing to an international arbitration court over ownership of two
fields that are being exploited by a British Petroleum-led Azerbaijani
consortium, and a third field that is not being worked at present.
The appeal goes to the heart of a problem that has plagued the five Caspian
states since the end of the Soviet Union, which is that they have failed to
agree on how the sea should be divided up. Should it be considered a lake - and
exploited equally - or a sea - and exploited in segments that correspond to the
coastlines of the states that border it?
Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which face each other across the landlocked body
of water, cannot even agree on where the halfway point is between them, which
means they cannot agree on which segments belong to which state.
"The delimitation of the floor and resources of the Caspian between
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan must be conducted without consideration of the
influence of the Apsheron peninsula and the Chilov island, which are 'special
circumstances' under international maritime law and, correspondingly, must not
be taken into account when resolving the medial line," said the Turkmen foreign
ministry on August 4.
Azerbaijan responded uncompromisingly.
"We are ready to defend the interests of Azerbaijan with all acceptable
methods, including diplomatically," said Khalaf Khalafov, a deputy foreign
minister. "As for legal procedures, then in a situation when they are required,
we are prepared to examine them."
He said, however, that Azerbaijan was confident that it had a claim to the
fields in question. "We have conducted all necessary investigations for the
justification of our position and our rights," he said.
Observers were baffled by the action of Turkmenistan, which since the death of
unorthodox Turkmen president-for-life Saparmurat Niazov in 2006 had appeared to
be becoming friendlier towards the government in Azerbaijan. Berdimukhamedov
even visited Baku in May last year and opened an embassy there, and the two
countries had begun to discuss jointly exploiting the field that lies closest
to their maritime boundary.
The new spat may be connected to the development of the Nabucco pipeline, which
would allow European countries to diversify away from their current reliance on
Russia for gas supplies. The prime ministers of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria,
Hungary and Austria signed an agreement on the pipeline last month, meaning it
is closer to realization.
That may have given Turkmenistan more confidence in its ability to wring
concessions from its potential customers, since the pipeline would probably
need Turkmen gas to be shipped under the Caspian to achieve the volumes it
needs.
"It would be hard to realize Nabucco without Turkmenistan. Without resolving
the argument about the status of the Caspian is it not possible to build the
trans-Caspian pipeline, which would take Turkmen gas to the European market
avoiding Russia," said Boyukaga Agayev, an expert on the South Caucasus.
But since building Nabucco would apparently be in Turkmenistan's interests,
other analysts have speculated that perhaps it is being pressured by either
Iran or Russia to slow the project down. Or perhaps it is deliberately slowing
the project so as to win a better price for its gas.
"You can't rule out that this is Ashgabat acting unilaterally. Turkmenistan
raised the question of sending energy resources to Europe and now is opening a
new field for maneuvers when it comes to negotiations over the cost of gas, and
the volumes being dispatches," Agayev said.
Other experts doubted the Turkmen decision to take the case to the arbitration
court would resolve anything, since Azerbaijan would have to agree to be bound
by its decision. It was not clear which arbitration court Berdimukhamedov was
referring to - there are several, most run by chambers of commerce - but
whichever one it was, it will not have any enforcement mechanism.
"There is only one court in the world that resolves territorial disputes
between states, and this is the United Nations' International Court of
Justice," said Rustam Mammadov, a political analyst who specializes in Caspian
issues. "That means Turkmenistan has to appeal to that institution. However,
neither Azerbaijan nor Turkmenistan accept the court's jurisdiction. And even
if Ashgabat unilaterally recognized the jurisdiction of this institution, the
case can't be examined without Azerbaijan's approval."
Kenan Guluzade is editor-in-chief of the Analitika.az web site and an
expert from the South Caucasus think-tank.
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