Summit may reshape Caspian bloc
By News Briefing Central Asia
A summit of Caspian states this weekend could foreshadow the emergence of a new
regional economic grouping, according to Central Asia commentators.
On September 11-13, the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan will meet in the Kazakh city of Aktau, on the shores of the Caspian
Sea. The fifth country with a Caspian coastline, Iran, will not be represented.
Kazakhstan's ambassador to Azerbaijan, Serik Primbetov, told a press conference
in Baku that the four presidents will discuss border issues and regional
cooperation, the Caspian Energy website reported.
Analysts say that one of the main topics for discussion is likely to
be Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's proposal to set up the Caspian
Economic Cooperation Organization.
He first floated the idea last October, but after some initial interest, no
further progress was made. Medvedev revived the plan at a meeting on Caspian
issues in early August.
Experts say one of the Kremlin's motives for creating a regional bloc is to
forestall plans by Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to export oil and gas to the
West without it going through Russia.
Azerbaijan already has export pipelines to Turkey, while Turkmenistan, on the
other side of the Caspian, is keen to diversify its export routes, which at
present are restricted almost entirely to Russia.
Developing alternative routes, especially ones involving pipelines under the
Caspian, face a major and longstanding obstacle - the unresolved legal status
of the sea.
Azerbaijan, Russia, and Kazakhstan favor a demarcation method where national
sectors are sliced off along a median line; this would confirm their ownership
of oil and gas reserves to which they already lay claim. Iran wants an equal
division so that it does not lose out to the others, while Turkmenistan favours
a solution that would take into account how close to each country's shoreline
the various oil and gas reserves are located.
Discussions on Caspian demarcation have been under way for 12 years. According
to some analysts. Moscow believes it could break the deadlock by forging a
Caspian bloc.
"What would happen if Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan - backed by the United States
and Europe - reached a bilateral agreement defining the legal status of the
Caspian? Russia would not be happy about that," said Rovshan Ibrahimov, head of
the international relations department at the Qavqaz University in Baku.
"Establishment a regional bloc would create mechanisms for obstructing this
from happening."
Ibrahimov believes the proposed Caspian grouping is a real possibility, and the
lack of agreement on the Caspian's status is no obstacle.
The new grouping could also allow Moscow to rebuild ties with Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan, both of which have been reluctant participants in other
Russian-led initiatives and groupings.
Annadurdy Khajiyev, a Turkmen economic analyst based in Bulgaria, believes the
Kremlin could use the new bloc to veto new pipelines running across or even
near the sea, by requiring approval from all Caspian states beforehand.
An energy expert in Ashgabat, meanwhile, believes Russia is focused on winning
over Turkmenistan so that all four former Soviet littoral states present a
united front against Iran and attempt to overcome its intransigent position on
Caspian demarcation.
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Azerbaijan already has export pipelines to Turkey, while Turkmenistan, on the
other side of the Caspian, is keen to diversify its export routes, which at
present are restricted almost entirely to Russia.
