China gets assertive as US ties grow By Jing-dong Yuan
MONTEREY, California - Chinese President Hu Jintao and US President Barack
Obama met last Wednesday on the sidelines of the Group of 20 financial summit
in London. It was their first meeting since Obama took office two months ago
and hence attracted a lot of attention.
Attention it deserves. It was not just a meeting to get acquainted but one that
both gives an indication of where bilateral relations stand and sets the road
map for the future.
Overall Sino-US relations remain stable thanks to both countries' efforts in
promoting dialogue and consultation, developing mechanisms for managing
disputes and cooperating in areas where Beijing and Washington have common
interests. While the
former George W Bush administration's many foreign policy decisions were
controversial, its China policy has enabled the Obama administration to focus
on strengthening bilateral cooperation in dealing with global economic
challenges.
Indeed, as China's economic power continues to grow - albeit at a lower rate
than previously - so does its potential influence in crafting solutions to help
the world economy recover. Potential, that is, as Beijing still wavers between
assuming a more proactive and prominent position on the global economic stage
and keeping a cautious, low-profile posture.
But a more confident assertiveness is nonetheless emerging, expressed in
Premier Wen Jiabao's concerns over how the Obama administration's recovery
plans could affect China's huge holdings of US debts, and in Chinese central
banker Zhou Xiaochuan's proposal to replace the dollar with an international
reserve currency.
It does not mean that China is poised to challenge America's dominant position
in the global economy, downsized as it is. But it does suggest that Beijing is
becoming more active in expressing its concerns, making its voice heard, and
demanding - tentatively, that is - that its core interests be protected.
Not surprisingly, the Hu-Obama meeting focused largely on these economic
challenges, the roles that the two countries can play and areas in which they
can cooperate to head off a global recession and get the economy back on track.
Both countries are implementing the announced stimulus packages. The
adjustments they are making - China promoting greater domestic demand in
consumption and the US restoring confidence in credit and lending, as well as
better savings rates over time - could make important contributions to the
recovery and stability of the global economy.
One important element of the bilateral relationship both sides are now
emphasizing is its comprehensive nature that includes consultation on regional
and global issues and covers a whole range of economic, military and
geostrategic areas.
On the economic front, the countries should carefully manage, monitor and
implement their stimulus plans, avoid protectionist tendencies and continue to
address the ongoing disputes over currency evaluation, market access, trade
imbalances and liberalization of trade in sectors that continue to be subject
to stringent controls.
Energy security, climate change and environmental protection are areas in which
the two countries have good reasons to cooperate. The Bush administration
started the process of consultation on these issues through the Strategic
Economic Dialogue and the Obama administration indicates it will continue and
expand cooperation in these areas.
The Hu-Obama meeting also reiterated the importance of bilateral consultation
and cooperation on regional and global security issues, including the North
Korean and Iranian nuclear programs, anti-terrorism and proliferation of
nuclear weapons. Obama's emphasis on multilateral diplomacy in dealing with
international and regional security challenges and his willingness to endorse
multilateralism as the more appropriate way of building trust among states is
an encouraging departure from the practices of the previous administration.
Despite the overall positive assessments by both leaders of the current status
of bilateral relations and their commitments to moving them to a higher level,
there remain areas of significant differences, mutual suspicions and deep
distrust on both sides. And the process of handling these potentially
destabilizing issues remains inadequate, if not completely lacking.
The recent encounter between Chinese ships and the US intelligence-gathering
vessel in the South China Sea, and the newly released Pentagon report on
Chinese military power remind us that the long-term stability of Sino-US
relations could be negatively affected due to misunderstanding, misperception
and misgivings that could lead to miscalculation and therefore mismanagement of
the bilateral relationship.
Thus it is particularly unfortunate that the two countries have yet to
implement bilateral strategic and military-to-military dialogue that addresses
nuclear activities, defense modernization, power projection and maritime
security issues. The newly revamped US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue
announced at the Hu-Obama meeting is a good step to elevate the level and
comprehensiveness of bilateral consultation. But the fact the process in effect
will reduce the frequency of such high-level meetings from the previous three
times a year to only one at a time when such consultation and its regularity is
much desired raises serious concerns.
And defense is ostensibly left out of this high-level process. To be sure,
there are Defense Consultative Talks at the under secretary of defense/deputy
chief-of-staff level and a military maritime consultative meeting in place, but
these also suffer from infrequency and a lack of significant progress over the
past decade. A number of attempts, including one on the strategic nuclear issue
as proposed by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates last year, have yet to be
fully and officially launched. Nor have rules on maritime engagement been
delineated, despite the potential risk of incidents due to the growing
encounters between the two countries' navies in the South China Sea.
The Hu-Obama meeting announced the upcoming visit of the US chief of naval
operation to China and perhaps a reciprocal visit by senior Chinese military
leaders, but much more is needed to strengthen bilateral military-to-military
contacts from high-level visits and exchanges of military officers to port
calls and better communication and understanding between the world's most
powerful and largest militaries.
Obama has a lot on his plate as he confronts both domestic and international
economic and security challenges and renews America's leadership that is based
on mutual respect and multilateral diplomacy. But he could seize the moment to
deepen the US-China relationship in the military as well as the strategic and
economic spheres. Hopefully, the goodwill and commitments expressed at last
Wednesday's meeting will be sustained in the months and years to come.
Dr Jing-dong Yuan is director of East Asia Non-proliferation Program at
the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies, and an associate
professor of International Policy Studies at the Monterey Institute of
International Studies.
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