Page 1 of 2 China struggles for space entrepreneurs
By Peter J Brown
An intensive review of the United States National Aeronautics and Space
Administration's (NASA's) future plans - for manned spaceflight programs in
particular - is coming to a close. A summary report including several
recommendations by the Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee has just
been released. The authors say that NASA can still return US astronauts to the
moon in the not too distant future, and even retain its vision to push ahead
with a manned NASA spaceflight to Mars, but at a considerably slower pace and
only if sufficient funds are approved by the US Congress.
Many in China are watching this situation closely, because this time they sense
that the pressure is really on both in terms of
when NASA programs are going to evolve, and how NASA's objectives are going to
be achieved.
The Review Committee simply states that NASA's budget needs a boost of,
"approximately $3 billion per year above the FY 2010 guidance in total
resources". It also places considerable emphasis both on the need for a
multinational exploration framework which is already in motion, and on a much
stronger commercial space role.
"First, space exploration has become a global enterprise. Many nations have
aspirations in space, and the combined annual budgets of their space programs
are comparable to NASA's. If the United States is willing to lead a global
program of exploration, sharing both the burden and benefit of space
exploration in a meaningful way, significant benefits could follow. Actively
engaging international partners in a manner adapted to today’s multi-polar
world could strengthen geopolitical relationships, leverage global resources,
and enhance the exploration enterprise," said the Review Committee.
"Second, there is now a burgeoning commercial space industry. If we craft the
space architecture to provide opportunities to this industry, there is the
potential - not without risk - that the costs to the government would be
reduced. Finally, we are also more experienced than in 1961, and able to build
on that experience as we design an exploration program. If, after designing
cleverly, building alliances with partners, and engaging commercial providers,
the nation cannot afford to fund the effort to pursue the goals it would like
to embrace, it should accept the disappointment of setting lesser goals."
The ranks of current and former NASA employees and administrative personnel are
completely divided over NASA's future. The Review Committee's recommendations
are under attack by far too many critics. All of this is infighting is setting
the stage for gridlock at a time when NASA must make many important decisions.
How much longer the US Space Shuttle as well as the International Space Station
(ISS) should remain in service has to be resolved. NASA has only a few
remaining Space Shuttle flights scheduled to carry passengers and cargo up to
the ISS, and then the Shuttle will be taken out of service by late 2011 if not
earlier.
In terms of launch vehicle options, the new NASA Constellation program
consisting of Ares 1 and Ares 5 rockets, and an Orion space capsule which is
designed to carry crews to the ISS is just entering its test phase. An
important Ares 1 rocket engine test was successfully conducted just days ago,
but serious doubts about the susceptibility of the overall Ares 1 design to
severe vibrations during the initial launch phase persist.
NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden response to the summary was quickly posted on
the Internet. He reminded everyone that, "it would be premature for anyone at
NASA to draw conclusions from the committee's work … Ultimately, of course, the
president will make the final decision."
The US Congress has much to say about the report, too, and hearings get
underway this week before the House Committee on Science and Technology, and
the Senate Space and Science Subcommittee.
Unlike the forces driving what many perceive as China's military-dominated
space program, NASA's vast workforce means that key political allies will lend
support especially in big states like California, Florida and Texas. NASA also
knows that Congress is very concerned about the availability of experienced
manpower, and about anything that might compromise, erode or threaten the
valuable skill sets and the core technological know-how which NASA has acquired
and cultivated diligently over the past few decades.
China and the US differ greatly in terms of workforce mobility and choices. The
US space commerce sector is recruiting talented and skilled personnel, whereas
China offers no such opportunities outside its government-supported space
sector. Granted, the combination of relatively small companies, tough economic
times and the highly specialized nature of the work involved means that choices
in the US may be limited, but these opportunities exist.
Consider Steve Cook, who until the end of August had been serving as NASA's
manager of the Ares projects. Cook's departure at almost the same time as the
release of the Review Committee's summary report, left many wondering if Cook
was simply bailing out because the Ares program is in serious trouble, or that
Cook might be dissatisfied with some other aspect of his job at NASA. Cook has
said that he envisioned his career unfolding first in the public sector - at
NASA - and then during its second half in the private sector. He now works for
Alabama-based Dynetics as director of space technologies.
The decision by the Review Committee to elevate the status of the US space
commerce ventures comes at a time when many critics say that the private space
sector's capabilities are largely inflated and unproven.
Gaining experience quickly and becoming more widely accepted is one thing, but
flying safely and performing routine missions successfully - and reliably - is
another thing entirely.
Critics are uncomfortable and even irritated by the way in which NASA is once
being driven to saddle up with this new generation of privately-developed space
vehicles - quite prematurely in their eyes. Saying that things will fall into
place over the next decade is a sheer exercise in unbridled optimism, critics
say.
Optimistic or not, China's enormous aerospace workforce does not enjoy the same
sort the flexibility that their counterparts in the US and Europe do. However,
at the same time, Chinese space workers or engineers work for the most part on
programs that are not given much media coverage, and they are not accustomed to
reading adverse reports that are available the media, unlike NASA team members.
In March, for example, a report on NASA programs by the US Governmental
Accountability Office (GAO) examined more than a dozen NASA missions and found
that delays averaging not quite a year were frequent, and that many if not most
of these NASA missions came with a final price tag over 10% of their estimated
budgets.
NASA lost its Orbiting Carbon Observatory earlier this year, and NASA's Mars
Science Laboratory (MSL) is now two years behind schedule and sporting a price
tag $700 million higher than planned - MSL's slightly less than 50% cost
increase is surpassed only by the price tag of one other NASA satellite which
increased more than 50%.
As troubling as this might seem, GAO never received any information whatsoever
from NASA concerning almost one-third of the NASA programs that GAO wanted to
assess for its report. In China, despite the reports of widespread corruption
at the local level, such agency reluctance or resistance seems unlikely. As for
negative news media accounts about space program-related problems, these rarely
if ever surface in China, and certainly not in such detail.
Another huge difference is that the China National Space Administration (CNSA)
and the China Great Wall Industries Corp. - the overseer of all Chinese
satellite exports and perhaps the closest thing that China has to a space
commerce venture - are not compelled to lobby the Central Committee or other
key holders of high office in Beijing.
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