TAIPEI - Despite more than a year of unprecedented warming relations between
Taiwan and mainland China, Beijing's continuing military build-up and Taiwan's
purchase of more arms from the United States indicate that direct flights,
gifts of pandas, a flood of mainland tourists to Taiwan and soon a free-trade
agreement between the two sides have yet to ease military tensions across the
strait.
The potential for war between the two long-time rivals - a flashpoint in the
region - still very much exists, as indicated in Taiwan's views of the military
situation highlighted in the island's recently released defense report.
The report issued by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense last week said the
number of China's missiles targeted at the island
now amount to 1,500. This is up from an estimated 800 a year or two ago. In
terms of short-range missiles, there are 1,300 aimed at the island that lies
just 160 kilometers (100 miles) away at the closest point.
The report said that China's continuing arms build-up has tipped the military
balance in the Taiwan Strait.
It warned that unless the missiles are removed, it would be difficult to
establish military trust between the two sides.
In an interview with Reuters recently and in a news conference earlier this
year, Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou said the same thing. "They should remove
the 1,000 missiles targeted at Taiwan. The reason is simple: We certainly don't
want to negotiate a peace agreement under the threat of attack," Ma told
reporters at the news conference in May.
Since Ma came into office in May 2008, focusing on reducing decades-long
tensions and strengthening economic ties with Taiwan's biggest trade partner -
mainland China - relations have dramatically improved. Flights, ships and
postal deliveries can go directly from one side to another without detouring
through a third territory. About 1,000 Chinese tourists are allowed into the
island each day, up from a trickle in the past. Taiwan has also opened up 100
sectors to Chinese investment. And by early next year, the two sides hope to
sign a free-trade agreement that will interlink the two already closely
connected economies more than ever.
But China has not lost sight of its goal of eventually reunifying with Taiwan,
which has been ruled separately since the Kuomintang (KMT) or Nationalists lost
a civil war to the Mao Zedong's communist forces and retreated to the island in
1949. Beijing still considers the island a province that must eventually be
reunified with the mainland.
Advisers to the current Taiwanese government and analysts said while the two
sides are boosting trade ties, with bilateral trade worth US$130 billion a
year, it doesn't change the dispute they have over Taiwan's sovereignty.
"There's no linkage between economic arrangement and removal of missiles in
China's eyes. In their policy, the economic policy can be separated from the
military issue," said Arthur Ding, a research fellow at National Cheng-chi
University's Institute of International Relations. “The removal of missiles and
signing of a [peace] treaty will all depend on how Taiwan's status will be
defined in the future."
Unification may not be so urgent for Beijing at this stage because it has so
many domestic issues to deal with, but it is still a long-term goal as Taiwan
is still very important to China from a strategic point of view, Ding said.
"If Taiwan is not friendly toward China and aligns with the United States, it
will become an obstacle for them, because Taiwan is right next door," said
Ding.
Nonetheless, the main trend between the two sides is to work toward peace,
analysts said.
Under the previous generation of Chinese leaders, Beijing had frequently vowed
to bring Taiwan under its rule, by force if necessary, and had threatened to
attack if Taiwan dragged its feet on unifying.
The current leadership in China has been much softer on reunification rhetoric,
focusing on preventing formal Taiwan independence instead. It seems to have
gone out of its way to try to win over Taiwanese people - by sending tens of
thousands of tourists there each month, purchasing Taiwan's farm produce,
providing disaster relief in the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot and agreeing to
sign a free-trade pact with Taipei.
Sun Yang-ming, vice president of the Cross-Strait Interflow Prospect
Foundation, a policy think-tank to the Taiwanese government, said the military
situation described in the defense report and the desire of the government to
improve ties are two different things.
"The report points out a fact objectively - that Beijing's military power is
steadily increasing; that's a reality. But we still want to maintain
cross-strait relations at a very stable level," Sun said.
He points to what sounds like a sea change in Ma's administration's approach to
China relations, compared to the previous administrations' approach, which
basically favored formal Taiwan independence.
Instead of trying to maintain a military balance between Taiwan and China,
Taiwan's current government is focusing on becoming a strategic partner of the
United States instead, so as to always have Washington's military might behind
the sensitive issue of Taiwan's sovereignty.
"We don't want to maintain the balance of power - it's not possible at all for
Taiwan to do this. We have to link ourselves to the United States, so that it's
not China versus Taiwan, but China versus Taiwan linked with the US," said Sun.
It would be too sensitive and unrealistic for Taipei and Washington to form a
formal military alliance, but Taiwan can still convince the US of its
importance as a regional strategic partner, Sun said.
"So Taiwan will try to align its policies in the region with that of the US by
supporting US policy, being a friend to the United States, Japan and South
Korea," Sun said.
Despite this, it doesn't mean Taiwan will spend less on acquiring arms to
defend itself.
Five months after Ma came to power, Taiwan purchased its biggest arms package
from the United States since 1979, Sun noted.
"The atmosphere has changed a lot, but the real situation hasn't really
changed, so we need to go through the economic situation first, and then go to
political talks. In political talks, then we can ask China to withdraw the
missiles," said Sun.
There's no doubt however, that the situation has changed significantly in the
past year and a half. "It's quite clear the tensions between the two sides have
been greatly reduced," said Ma.
Reflecting this, the defense report notes for the first time that Taiwan would
like to establish a mechanism of building mutual trust between the two sides'
militaries.
Despite the continuing arms buildup, establishing long-term peace is very much
on the minds of China's and Taiwan's current leaders, analysts said. Neither
side wants to go to war and both know well the consequences of military
conflict, especially as their economies are becoming more closely linked, with
around a million Taiwanese living and working in the mainland, five million who
travel between the two sides each year, and more than 130,000 Taiwanese
companies that have invested in China. The signing of the free-trade agreement,
which will allow each side to trade tariff-free and gain greater investment
access to each other's markets, will make the two economies even more
interlinked.
The two sides are already mulling a meeting between Ma and Chinese President Hu
Jintao. That would be the first time for the supreme leaders from both sides to
meet, which would certainly be a historic event.
If Ma and Hu meet, it is possible tensions could be further reduced and that a
breakthrough could occur in the political and military arena. Both men are
known for being practical and for their willingness to get around sticky
obstacles including terminology issues and titles, such as addressing Ma as
"president", which China would object to.
"Beijing really wants to enter into political talks with Taiwan. Now that Ma
has become KMT chairman, he will be able to negotiate directly with China,"
said Sun, referring to the fact that Ma was elected chairman of the KMT this
year, enabling him to meet Hu on a party-to-party basis, rather than the more
difficult president-to-president basis.
But Sun said it is unlikely that Ma would go to mainland China during his first
term, which ends in 2012.
"The opposition Democratic Progressive Party leaders believe he will try to
meet with Hu, but he has rejected this," said Sun. "The timing is too
sensitive. If he goes now, the US and Japan will think it's very strange,
because it's not necessary to discuss politics with China yet."
But Chinese President Hu will be eager for Ma to visit early in Ma's second
term, if he would be reelected in 2012. Hu is due to step down as China's
president in early 2013, just a year later, and he is mindful of the legacy he
will leave behind.
So far, the fourth-generation Chinese leader is not known for any major
accomplishments, compared to his predecessors.
Mao, though a tyrannical dictator, is still credited with winning the war
against the KMT to found the People's Republic, and building up China's
defensive capabilities to ward off any foreign invasions.
Deng Xiaoping, the second-generation leader, is credited with launching reform
and opening in the early 1990s that has helped transform China into the major
economic powerhouse it is today.
Jiang Zemin, while not particularly well-liked, nonetheless oversaw the
handover of Hong Kong and Macao to Chinese rule, China's smooth entry into the
World Trade Organization which further boosted China's economy and set it in
sync with the world's. During Jiang's term, China also won the bid to host the
2008 Summer Olympic Games, which shone a generally positive international
spotlight on the country like never before.
While Hu has kept China's economy growing at a relatively healthy pace, he has
been unable to resolve any of China's most touchy issues - Taiwan or even Tibet
and Xinjiang. Taiwan aside, tensions in Tibet and Xinjiang actually worsened
under his reign.
"[If] any Chinese leader, including Hu Jintao, [can] set up a framework for
resolving cross-strait problems, then there will be no problem in his legacy,"
said Sun. "During his term, he wants to set up such a framework."
So far, there has been no landmark agreement despite more than a year of good
cross-strait relations since Ma came into office in 2008. Hu doesn't want to
miss this good opportunity.
"The atmosphere is very good," said Sun.
As for what Ma wants, his singular goal now seems a practical one - to sign the
economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) with China - a free trade-like
agreement which will allow Taiwan to export goods and services to China
tariff-free, as well as to enjoy more access to China's market. Ma believes
this is crucial to keep Taiwan a competitive trade partner in the region as
China will sign similar agreements with the region's countries.
Given the controversial nature of the agreement - with opposition party leaders
telling the public it could threaten Taiwan's industries and jobs by allowing a
flood of cheaper Chinese products to enter Taiwan - the last thing Ma wants to
do now is to meet with Hu.
But a meeting is more possible if he succeeds in signing the agreement with
China by early 2010 as he hopes to.
Even after the agreement is signed though, and even if the two leaders meet,
there will not likely be a peace treaty between the two sides any time soon,
analysts said.
"The treaty and removal of missiles will probably not happen so fast," said
Ding.
Still, even if a treaty is a long ways off, a political breakthrough could
happen quickly, analysts said.
"I believe the withdrawal of missiles could happen sometime next year. After
the ECFA is signed, very quickly we'll get into political talks and in that
we'll ask Beijing to remove arms," Sun said.
Cindy Sui is a freelance journalist based in Taipei.
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