China hedges emissions pledge
By Antoaneta Bezlova
BEIJING - China, although pledging to break away from its highly polluting
economic path, has managed to avoid compromise on what it believes is its
national agenda.
Speaking on Tuesday at the United Nations summit on climate change, Chinese
President Hu Jintao promised that his country - the world's largest greenhouse
gases emitter - will cut its emissions "notably" by 2020, and he drew applause
for setting new standards as a developing powerhouse committed to curbing its
pollution. But he did not pledge to make these carbon emissions cuts mandatory.
What is more, he tied the planned changes to a "notable" decrease in carbon
intensity - or the amount of emissions per unit of economic output by 2020 - of
China's economy, meaning the
overall level of emissions could still grow even if the amount per unit was
less.
Ahead of the UN summit, Chinese experts had predicted Beijing would use a new
tack compared with its uncompromising stance in the past, which rejected any
commitments on cutting emissions.
China agrees that action on climate change is needed but insists that
accumulated emissions in the atmosphere are the historical responsibility of
developed nations, who should be the ones to shoulder the bigger part of the
work by pledging investment to poorer countries and committing to mandatory
cuts. So far, Beijing has refused to agree to cap its own fast-growing
emissions.
The possibility of a new conciliatory approach from Beijing was outlined by Sha
Zukang, a senior Chinese diplomat and the UN undersecretary general for
economic and social affairs last week.
"China is likely to take a step back at this summit in order to advance later,"
he said in an interview with China Business News.
The UN summit is regarded as preparatory for the crucial meeting in Copenhagen
in December, when world leaders are expected to forge a new agreement to
replace the Kyoto protocol to combat climate change.
As the clock for agreeing a deal that works for everyone is ticking, developing
powerhouses like China and India have come under increasing pressure to commit
to changes in the way they navigate their economies.
China is the largest emitter, followed by the United States. Together they
account for about 40% of the world's total emissions, split almost evenly
between them.
"The pressure on China to take action has become even more intense since the
election of Japan's new Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama," Gao Heng, senior
researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese
Academy of Social Sciences, told Inter Press Service. "Tokyo has pledged
action, and Beijing can't be seen sitting idle."
Japan, which generates more than 4% of the world's greenhouse gases, has
promised a 25% cut in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2020.
Hatoyama said his country was also ready to contribute money and technical help
to poorer countries to cut emissions.
The need for political momentum was yet again articulated by UN secretary
general Ban Ki-moon at the summit. He remarked that talks were progressing at
"glacial" speed.
"Instead of demanding concessions from others, let us ask how we can contribute
to the greater good," he said, addressing the leaders gathered in the General
Assembly hall. "The world's glaciers are now melting faster than human progress
to protect them and us."
In the same interview, Sha pointed out that in view of the current deadlock in
negotiations, it was important for China to aid the formation of a "general
consensus" about reducing emissions. "The concrete steps and areas of reduction
could be decided later," he told the business paper on September 16.
Proposing to use the carbon intensity standard as a benchmark for how carbon
emissions reductions are measured dovetails with China's national agenda of
putting development first. Instead of aiming for an overall cut in its
emissions, Beijing is eyeing increasing the efficiency of its economy, which is
already a part of its current five-year economic plan.
Hu's speech was primed to be a breakthrough in China's position on climate
change, promising to underscore the country's ascending diplomatic role in
global affairs. Media experts like Ma Xiaolin, editor-in-chief of ChinaBBS.com,
the country's largest grassroots information portal, predicted the speech would
transmit "China's voice" to the world.
But the promises outlined in the speech, while new, are sketched with keeping
China's national interests at heart. Beijing did not commit to any specific
numerical targets, which means there is room for future maneuvering in setting
them.
"We should make our endeavor on climate change a win-win for both developed and
developing countries and a win-win for both the interests of individual
countries and the common interests of humanity," Hu emphasized before world
leaders.
Reducing China's reliance on coal, 70% of its total energy mix, will be a
lengthy process, predicted Gao. "The government knows it has got to get its
action together, but the problem is that there are very few immediate
alternatives," he said.
Hu said his country would take four steps toward greener development. Apart
from cutting carbon dioxide emissions by a "notable margin" by 2020 compared
with 2005 levels, he pledged to drastically increase the size of forests,
increase the use of nuclear or non-fossil fuels to 15% of power by 2020, and
work to develop a green economy.
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