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    China Business
     Oct 10, 2009

Wynn the master of Macau gamble
By Olivia Chung

Las Vegas gaming magnate Stephen Wynn's gamble that punters in Hong Kong, Macau and further afield would happily throw cash at shares in his Wynn Macau casino unit - and help pull his parent company back from a financial dark hole - has paid off hugely for all parties, with the stock surging on its trading debut on the Hong Kong exchange.

Wynn Macau earlier raised US$1.63 billion by selling a 25% stake in the Macau business, which has 600 hotel rooms, 380 gaming tables and 1,230 slot machines.

The shares, sold at HK$10.08 each, the high end of an indicated range, then rose as much as 13% on Friday before closing the day up 6.9% at HK$10.78


Wynn, whose gambling operations are the fourth-largest in Macau, decided to list the unit as parent Wynn Resorts' revenue

  

tumbled in the United States amid the global financial crisis. Earnings at Wynn Resorts have fallen for the past two years as fewer visitors showed up to spend at Las Vegas casinos and hotels. In contrast, earnings from Macau, the world's biggest gambling center, rose 48% to HK$2 billion last year, according to the company. The city contributed 57% of Wynn's second-quarter revenue.

Doubts have shrouded the wisdom of Wynn's gamble since his plans became public earlier this year. By early August, optimism over "green shoots" of a global economic recovery was beginning to wear thin, and a near five-month surge in stock markets since March looked to have run its course. In the immediate run-up to the Wynn Macau IPO, a string of Hong Kong listings had performed poorly by local standards.

Shares in state-owned Metallurgical Corporation of China, which raised HK$18.2 billion in the biggest initial public offering in Hong Kong to date this year, slumped more than 11% on their September 24 trading debut. By mid-day in Hong Kong on Friday, they were 13% below the offer price.

Others did little better in the wake of the Metallurgical listing, with menswear brand China Lilang, sports shoe maker Peak Sport Products and Shanghai developer Glorious Property Holdings all declining on their first trading day.

As recently as October 6, China Resources Cement Holdings (CRC), the biggest producer of the product in the heavily industrialized south of the country, fell 4.4% on its debut before easing back up to close at its offer price of  HK$3.90. CRC's pricing was 25 times its expected 2009 earnings per share (EPS).
The outlook started to turn this week, when the Australian government, the country's economy bolstered by strong sales to China of commodities such as iron ore, unexpectedly raised interest rates, the first leading economy to do so since the financial crisis struck. The move, signaling official optimism in the prospects for economic recovery, gave a boost to stock markets around the world, with new shares in Hong Kong among those benefiting.

In a string of trading debuts on Thursday, leading industrial gas supplier Yingde Gases Group gained 12% and China Vanadium Titano-Magnetite Mining rose 5.1%. Smaller Ausnutria Dairy Corp jumped 28% while Jiangchen International Holdings, an apparel manufacturer that raised a mere HK$33 million with its IPO, saw the value of its stock surge more than 400% before closing Thursday up 110%

Thomas Ng, investment strategist at Quam Securities Company, attributed the share strength of the new listings to the rising stock market in the United States and the increase in Australia's benchmark interest rate and also the low pricing by the most recent share offerings.
 
"The interest rate hike has indicated that the serious economic downturn has passed, which moved the stock market in Hong Kong by improving the sentiment," he said.
 
The table was set for Stephen Wynn's throw of the dice, and while at 30 times prospective earnings the Wynn Macau share price was considered "quite aggressive" and not worth it, according to Ng, other factors had been moving in the 67-year-old magnate's favor.

Late last month, Reuters news agency reported that Chinese citizens traveling to Macau from neighboring Guangdong province are having an easier time obtaining visas. New rules issued by Chinese authorities last year limited them to two trips a year. "The latest version is [they can travel to Macau] once a month out of Guangdong," an unnamed casino executive told the news agency. "Gaming revenues for the first two weeks of the month have been good."

Macau reported a 53% rise in gross gaming revenue in September, the third straight monthly increase.

Even so, while Wynn Macau's stock, for now, appears to have been a good bet, the longer term may not be so good for new investors who don't cash in price gains. Wynn Macau's single casino operation faces tough competition from its five rivals, three of them larger, in the former Portuguese enclave, while bad-debt provisions by parent Wynn Resort may be shared with the Macau unit.

Nasdaq-listed Wynn Resorts made a special US$22 million provision for doubtful accounts during the third quarter as debts owned by players turn bad amid the global economic downturn.

"Part of the provision for bad debts would be offered by Wynn Macau, which will affect its prospects," Ng said.

Still, Wynn got to the market ahead of rival Sheldon Adelson, operator of Las Vegas Sands (LVS), who has indicated plans to raise at least US$2 billion - with some reports suggesting US$4 billion - selling shares in Hong Kong with a listing of his Macau interests. LVS owns the Sands, the Venetian and the Four Seasons properties in Macau and had to suspend construction in the US$12 billion Cotai strip in Macau last November as global credit markets dried up, axing about 11,000 workers.

Adelson is also committed to the US$5.5 billion Marina Bay Sands resort and gambling complex in Singapore, due to open next year. He will hoping his luck holds as well as Wynn's. The stakes are certainly high enough.

Olivia Chung is a senior Asia Times Online reporter.

(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)


US casino bosses vary Macau bet (Aug 14, '09)

Downturn raises odds at Singapore casinos (Jan 15, '09)

Still dreaming big in Macau (Jun 4, '09)

 

 
 



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