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Asia Times Online will not be uploaded on Monday, October 13, due to a public holiday.

US standing in Caspian drips away

The standing of the United States in Central Asia is plunging as new geopolitical realities play out following the Georgia-Russia conflict. US efforts to court countries in the key oil pipeline region have been bluntly snubbed as resurgent Russia is seen instead as the key energy ally. Moscow's financial bailout of distant Iceland also sends a message to the steppes. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 10, '08)

Afghan talks widen US-UK rift
Political talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are likely to deepen the rift between the United States, with its preference for building up troop numbers in Afghanistan, and Britain, which sees talk offering a quicker exit opportunity than reliance on guns and bombs. - Gareth Porter (Oct 10, '08)

The savagery of a surge that failed
Death, fear and mayhem, spread by a failed coalition "surge" in Afghanistan in 2007, has brutalized the population and filled the ranks of the Taliban with enraged Afghans who've seen relatives eviscerated by coalition bombs. Amid countrywide starvation and poverty, listless and lawless Kabul lies in tatters. Hope is fading fast here, and once the Afghans lose all hope, the Americans will have lost this war. - Anand Gopal (Oct 10, '08)

A long, hot winter for Pakistan
A bomb disguised as a gift basket of sweets has demolished the headquarters of Pakistan's Anti-Terrorist Force in Islamabad and set the tone for the Taliban's strategy to strike government and Western forces before they're dug in for all-out war. US-led troops, meanwhile, are in a frenzy of preparation inside Pakistan, perhaps with an eye to November's US presidential election. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Oct 10, '08)

US twists arms, Pyongyang plays footsie
Washington is pressing hard to quash skepticism from South Korea and objections by Japan in order to pull North Korea off the US's "sponsor of terror" list and reach a compromise over nuclear arms assessments. Pyongyang has responded with a drumbeat of typically menacing gestures and continues to dance circles around inspectors. - Donald Kirk (Oct 10, '08)

OBITUARY
A revisionist death in Singapore
The death of Joshua Benjamin Jeyaretnam marks the passing of arguably Singapore's most outspoken opposition politician. Tributes to JBJ's tenacity and courage omit the details of why such attributes were necessary. There is at least dignity in the silence of the city state's guiding hand since independence, Lee Kuan Yew. (Oct 10, '08)

Lame duck Abdullah still peddles reform
When Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi announced on Wednesday he won't be defending the premiership, he gamely pledged to carry through with his reform program for the rest of his premiership. Few are betting on it: if Abdullah couldn't enact reforms at the height of his popularity, it's doubtful he'll do it from the political doghouse. (Oct 10, '08)



Bernanke running out of ammo
US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's belated interest-rate cut uses up valuable ammunition in an attempt to keep the financial system afloat a little longer. The question now is whether the government can hold back from nationalizing a bank such as Citigroup before the presidential election. - Julian Delasantellis (Oct 9, '08)

China lost in SE Asian space
Although ahead in the Asian space race, China's satellite communications industry is lagging far behind the US and Europe in key market Southeast Asia. China's satellites are cheap but unproven and the industry remains too close to the government, leaving Southeast Asian nations loathe to rely on such a powerful neighbor for the sensitive technology. - Peter J Brown (Oct 9, '08)

Milk scandal sours China's 'soft power'
China's export of tainted milk products - which has come on the heels of other contaminated or dangerous products - has severely damaged the goodwill and "soft power" that Beijing has tried to gain through multi-billion dollar "prestige-engineering projects". Worse, it has exposed an outdated, non-transparent political structure. - Willy Lam (Oct 9, '08)

Beijing restrains buying urge
The Chinese government, its coffers filled with cash, is being called upon to throw its weight behind ailing Western financial institutions and engage in setting new rules for the post-crisis world. So far, though, it prefers to stand aloof.

Oil, war, lies and 'bulls**t'
Claims that oil was a cause of the US invasion and continued military presence in Iraq arise from a profound failure to understand oil's underlying pricing mechanism and distracts from a proper insight into the goals of the George W Bush administration. - Cyrus Bina (Oct 8, '08)

'Play or no pay' warning for Pakistan
The United States needs to rethink its entire approach to Pakistan, recommends a bipartisan report whose authors include those with links to both US presidential candidates. Washington has provided about US$11 billion in aid to Pakistan since 2001, and this "era of the blank check is over", the report suggests, given Islamabad's patchy record in the struggle against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. - Jim Lobe (Oct 8, '08)

US, Pakistan torn apart over terror
The "war on terror" in South Asia consists primarily of two battles, the first waged by United States-led forces against the Taliban inside Afghanistan and the second by the Pakistani military against militants in its tribal areas. Until these struggles are better coordinated, ties between Washington and Islamabad can only get worse. - Tariq Mahmud Ashraf (Oct 8, '08)

S&P turns screw on Pakistan
The Pakistani economy, already beset on all sides as the country is riven by violence and runaway inflation, took another dent this week with a further downgrade of its foreign-currency rating. The government is now going cap-in-hand to international agencies and Gulf neighbors to keep going. - R M Cutler (Oct 8, '08)

Taliban wake-up call for India
For the bulk of the Indian strategic community, the unthinkable is happening - there is the prospect of an Afghan settlement involving the Taliban. The ground is dramatically shifting in the neighborhood and Delhi can no longer afford to entirely conflate the Taliban movement with al-Qaeda. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 8, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
A new dawn for Iran
The irreversible decline of the US dollar-based global financial system highlights the need for a currency based on the intrinsic energy value of carbon-based fuels. Iran, protected from the "Anglo disease" by the very sanctions aimed at damaging it, is placed to lead the way. - Chris Cook (Oct 8, '08)

China's interest targeted on harmony
The Chinese central bank, confronted with falling though still enviable economic growth, is expected to follow others in the region by cutting interest rates. A liquidity crisis is not its problem. Keeping factories busy and workers in line is its priority. One measure already taken to boost domestic consumption is expansion of a pilot scheme to give financial subsidies for farmers to buy home appliances. - Leanne Wang (Oct 8, '08)

The fatal flaw in Afghan peace moves
While the parties involved are playing coy, it is beyond doubt that Saudi Arabia-brokered Afghan peace talks have begun. Using a mix of the godly and the worldly, which is useful for finessing a movement like the Taliban that crisscrosses religion and politics, the United States aims to keep the process within a tiny, exclusive circle of friends and allies. This means no role for Iran and Russia. It also means failure. - M K Bhadrakumar (Oct 7, '08)

Look who came to dinner ...
Former Taliban foreign minister Wakeel Ahmed Muttawakil was one of the special guests at a dinner hosted by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia at which a peace process with the Taliban is said to have been discussed. Muttawakil tells Syed Saleem Shahzad of the good relations the Taliban once enjoyed with the Saudis, but won't be drawn further. If previous Saudi efforts are a guide, a Muslim peacekeeping force for Afghanistan is on the menu. (Oct 7, '08)

Syria plays hardball with the Saudis
Saudi Arabia's refusal to denounce the deadly September 27 attack in Syria has enflamed relations between Damascus and Riyadh. The Syrians believe the Saudis, furious over defeat in Beirut and Syria's diplomatic successes, are now financing radicals in Lebanon to strike at both Hezbollah and Syria - a move that could set the region ablaze. - Sami Moubayed (Oct 7, '08)

SUN WUKONG
China takes stock in crisis
China's refusal to allow full convertability of its currency has left its economy relatively isolated from the financial crisis sweeping the world. But exporters will suffer, and market reforms that have been underway for three decades are likely to proceed at an even more cautious pace. - Wu Zhong (Oct 7, '08)

SPENGLER
Hockey moms
and capital markets

Alaska governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, derided outside the United States as a mere country bumpkin unfit for higher office, personifies why Asian investors continue to pour money into the US, even as its financial sector nears breakdown. (Oct 6, '08) 

Yen a winner from financial woes
The Japanese currency looks set to strengthen further as investors become increasingly wary of risky investments amid a global economic slowdown. That means a reduced willingness to take advantage of the country's low interest rates. - Kosuke Takahashi (Oct 2, '08)

SPENGLER
Truth, lies and ticker tape
The world will not end if the US Congress refuses to pass a redrawn financial sector bailout plan. Unfortunately, nor will it be the end of America's financier caste, which will live to fleece another day. But when you hear that there is no choice but a bailout, remember: it just ain't so. (Oct 1, '08)

CHINA'S DOLLAR MILLSTONE
Gold, manipulation and domination
For China, the world's biggest creditor nation, to allow successful national development it must cease having its currency a derivative of the US dollar and stop relying on a US-dollar denominated trade surplus to finance domestic development. The historic role of gold and its manipulation tells it as much. - Henry C K Liu (Oct 1, '08)
This is the fourth part of a continuing series.
Part 1: Breaking free from dollar hegemony
Part 2: Developing China with sovereign credit
Part 3: History of monetary imperialism
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CHAN AKYA
Europe's death
by guarantee

A humiliating deal for Iceland is just the starting marker of the terminal decline of Europe. Domestic economic problems combined with unwieldy banking and regulatory supervision will put paid to the continent's hopes of surviving the current market carnage.

MARKET RAP
Crash!
Led spectacularly by Japan, Asia's markets fell with ever greater vengeance during the week. With European markets picking up the dire tale with a week-ending opening plunge and New York nervous in the wings, talk of support levels risks immediate redundancy.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.

Monetary Stalinism
in Washington

From Stalin's crop appropriation in the Ukraine of the 1930s to China in the late 1960s, the immense human damage wrought by government interference in the pricing mechanism is only too evident. The actions of the US Federal Reserve over the past decade is threatening financial consequences on a similarly tragic scale. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene

 THE MOGAMBO GURU

Reserving the right to destroy
The US Federal Reserve has expanded its balance sheet more in one month than it has in almost all of its first 86 years of existence. This is a fundamental crackup - and means it is time to make some Big Wonderful Money.

CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
The Wall Street bust
The over-indebted US household, corporate and state sectors face a devastating liquidity crisis amid frozen lending markets, broken securitization markets and a panic of de-leveraging. It's an absolute debacle, and US policymakers can do little about it other than try to slow the collapse. (Oct 6, '08)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.

THE WEEK AHEAD



[Re Bernanke running out of ammo, Oct 9] .. [T]he public should worry that even with a $700 billion bailout, Paulson is not buying up toxic loans nor pumping liquidity into the markets. He is waiting until after the US elections. It is not clear why, but this will further fuel volatility into the world markets. Is he out to radically destroy the very free market capitalism that he as CEO of Goldman Sachs helped to build and sustain and grow? ...
Nakamura Junzo
Guam
   Go to Letters to the Editor

On The Edge
As the quintessential nation born from a revolution against tyranny and international brigandage, the American experience has now come full circle ... Out of this crucible of fire and brimstone that American plutocracy is bringing upon itself, however, will rise up a new phoenix based upon a new and living revolutionary principle for our new era.
Charles Knause
   Go to the readers' forum topic, The Independent European Defense Intitiative



1. Bernanke running out of ammo

2. Oil, war, lies and 'bulls**t'

3. The Russians get on message

4. China lost in SE Asian space

5. Milk scandal sours China's 'soft power'

6. Beijing restrains buying urge

(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Oct 9, 2008)




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