If the
world could vote, it's Kerry
in a landslide By Jim Lobe
WASHINGTON - If the people of the rest of the
world could vote in November's US elections, Democratic
Senator John Kerry would beat President George W Bush in
a landslide. That is the finding of a poll conducted by
GlobeScan Incorporated and its affiliates during July
and August of nearly 35,000 people in 35 countries in
all regions of the world.
The survey, which was
released by GlobeScan and the University of Maryland's
Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) here on
Wednesday, found that Kerry was favored over Bush by an
average of 46% versus 20% in the 35 countries polled,
but by a much larger margin among respondents in
traditional US allies in Western Europe.
"Only
one in five [wants] to see Bush re-elected," said Steven
Kull, PIPA's executive director. "Though he is not as
well known, Kerry would win handily if the people of the
world were to elect the US president."
Majorities or pluralities of respondents in 30
out of the 35 countries polled said they preferred to
see Kerry win, while in only three countries - the
Philippines, Nigeria and Poland - was Bush the favored
candidate.
The tally in two Asian countries,
India and Thailand, showed the race to be within the
margin of error of plus or minus 2.3-5 percentage
points. In India, Kerry led Bush 34-33%, while in
Thailand, Bush led Kerry 33-30%, according to the
survey.
Particularly notable was the finding
that among countries that have contributed troops to the
US-led military operation in Iraq, not only was Kerry
heavily favored, but respondents also said their view of
US foreign policy has gotten worse under Bush. Countries
that fell into this category included the United
Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, the
Dominican Republic, Kazakhstan, Japan, Norway and Spain.
The two exceptions were the Philippines and
Poland. In the former, 57% said they preferred Bush over
Kerry and a comparable percentage said their view of US
foreign policy had improved since Bush became president.
The survey, however, was taken just before Philippine
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo withdrew Filipino
troops from Iraq in the wake of demands by insurgents
who had taken a Filipino truck driver hostage. The
Philippines was the only country where a majority of
respondents said they favored Bush.
In Poland,
where only a modest 31-26% plurality said they favored
Bush over Kerry, 41% nonetheless said their view of US
foreign policy had gotten worse under Bush, while only
15% said it had gotten better.
Overall, a
majority or plurality in 31 of the 35 countries said
Bush had made them feel "worse" about US foreign policy.
Overall, 53% of respondents in all countries agreed with
that position, while 19% said that he had made them feel
"better" about Washington's role in the world.
Majorities who said their views of US policy had
become "worse" under Bush - ranging from two-thirds to
more than 80% - were particularly heavy among Western
Europeans and Latin Americans.
"Perhaps most
sobering for Americans is the strength of the view that
US foreign policy is on the wrong track, even in
countries contributing troops in Iraq," said GlobeScan
president Doug Miller. GlobeScan, a global consulting
firm, polls mainly for private clients - mostly
multinational corporations.
The survey results
could play a role in the campaign, if only because both
Kerry and Bush have made foreign policy, the US role in
the world, and Iraq a central part of their campaign
messages. Kerry, in particular, has claimed that Bush's
unilateralism in carrying out his "war on terrorism" has
needlessly alienated US allies and altered foreign
opinion, with potentially disastrous consequences.
His claim, which was based mostly on previous
polls by the Pew Global Attitudes Project that showed a
sharp drop in the percentage of foreigners, particularly
in Europe and the Islamic world, who expressed favorable
opinions of the United States over the past four years,
is sure to be bolstered by the new survey, which polled
between 500 and 1,500 people in each of the 35
countries.
Most of the polling was done in
face-to-face interviews, although in some countries
interviews were conducted by telephone. In 11 poor
countries - Brazil, China, the Dominican Republic,
India, Indonesia, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa,
Thailand, Turkey and Venezuela - the poll was confined
to urban areas.
Overall, an average of about
one-third of respondents did not express an opinion when
asked which candidate they favored.
Among
Washington's traditional North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) allies, Kerry was strongly preferred
over Bush. The biggest margin was found in Norway, with
74-7%; in Germany, it was 74-10%; in France 64-5%; the
Netherlands, 63-6%; Italy (whose prime minister, Silvio
Berlusconi, has been a staunch Bush advocate), 58-14%;
Spain, 45-7%; and Britain, 47-16%.
In Canada,
Kerry was preferred by 61% to 16%, and in Japan, the
margin was a closer 43% to 23%. In traditionally neutral
Sweden, the margin was 58% to 10%.
In Central
Europe - sometimes referred to as the "New Europe" - the
picture was more mixed, with the Poles giving Bush a
slight plurality, but the Czechs falling much more into
the Western European camp, giving Kerry a 42-18% edge.
According to the survey, Asian views were also
more mixed, although a majority of 52% to 12% of Chinese
respondents preferred Kerry over Bush, and a majority of
57% of Indonesians opted for the Massachusetts senator
versus 34% who said they favored Bush. A majority of
Filipinos went for Bush, while Indians and Thais were
closely divided.
In Latin America, however,
Kerry swept all of the nine countries that were polled.
In two cases, he gained a majority - Brazil (57-14%) and
the Dominican Republic (51-38%). In the rest, he scored
strong pluralities, including Venezuela (48-22%),
Colombia (47-26%), Argentina (43-6%), Mexico (38-18%),
Uruguay (37-5%) and Bolivia (25-16%).
In Africa,
Bush did best in Nigeria, where 33% of respondents said
they preferred him versus 27% who opted for Kerry. But
Kerry emerged as the clear favorite in five other
African countries - Kenya (58-25%), Ghana (48-24%),
Tanzania (44-30%), South Africa (43-29%) and Zimbabwe
(28-6%).
Respondents tended to be least
responsive in central Eurasia. In Russia, Kerry was
preferred by 20% versus 10%; in Turkey, the margin was
40% to 25%; and in Kazakhstan, the margin was 40% to
12%.
The strongest negative views of US foreign
policy under Bush were found in Germany, where 83% of
respondents said their image of Washington's role in the
world had gotten worse. Other countries with similar
perceptions included France (81%); Mexico (78%); China
(72%); Canada and the Netherlands (71%); Spain (67%);
Brazil and Italy (66%); Argentina (65%); and Britain
(64%).
The only countries where a majority or
plurality of respondents said their opinion of the US
foreign policy under Bush had improved were the
Philippines (58% better, 27% worse); India (38% better,
33% worse), and Thailand (35% better, 30% worse).
Respondents in Nigeria and Venezuela were roughly
equally divided.
