COMMENT Warning: There will be no tsunami
warning By Eric Koo Peng Kuan
SINGAPORE - Asian governments were caught
totally off guard by the December 26 tsunami disaster.
Now the calls are loud for the implementation in the
Indian Ocean of an early warning system akin to that of
the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center based in Hawaii.
Don't hold your breath waiting for it.
Natural
disasters, especially floods, are nothing new to Asia,
with its largely maritime and coastal terrain and
numerous rivers. In fact, heavy rains and changes in
wave patterns are expected in the many areas that
experience an annual monsoon season. Until a few decades
ago, frequent flooding by China's two great rivers, the
Yellow and the Yangtze, were considered unavoidable. A
tropical storm in late November 2004 in the Philippines
caused floods and landslides that killed at least 300.
Malaysian states nearer to the east coast, like
Kelantan, Trengganu and Pahang, were also badly affected
by floods in December, with at least 12 reported dead.
Asian governments' policies in coping with
natural disasters have always been those of reaction
rather than prevention. All available state assets are
usually utilized, especially the uniformed services, in
organizing rescue, relocation and humanitarian aid
efforts. With the exception of China, where flood
prevention was for thousands of years part of the
national psyche, there have been few conscious and
active large-scale mobilizations of state efforts to
prevent natural disasters.
The reason is not
ignorance or misinformation on the part of governments.
The bureaucratic ethos of being reluctant to implement
an initiative for fear of shouldering blame is better
designed to be responsive rather than proactive.
Ugly economics plays a major part too. Long-term
damage to the environment caused by deforestation,
haphazard industrialization, mining and building of dams
leads to increased likelihood of flooding. Governments
are obviously reluctant to move against companies that
cause ecological damage through their commercial
activities. The economic benefits far outweigh
environmental damage in the short term. Philippine
President Gloria Arroyo blamed the November floods on
illegal logging, but the fact is, illegal logging will
continue.
Moreover, residents of disaster-prone
areas are reluctant to relocate as their businesses or
jobs will be badly affected. They prefer to take their
chances with Mother Nature, thus creating social and
environmental problems. After all, natural disasters do
not strike every day, unlike the dangers posed to human
life by other humans - social unrest, terrorism and
crime. Economic laws take precedence over the
possibility of human lives being lost.
Set up an
early warning or detection system against natural
disasters? It looks good on paper, but who will foot the
bill? Asia has weathered countless natural disasters
that have claimed millions of lives. In the medium term,
the odds of a tsunami disaster of this scale happening
again are rather small. Governments certainly will
pragmatically take their chances rather than devote
resources to a project akin to an insurance policy
against a natural disaster which may or may not happen
again for many years.
There are many far more
pressing problems on Asian governments' agendas. Natural
disasters are perceived fatalistically as unavoidable.
It's easier and cheaper to lose a few sheep from the
flock to the wolves, than it is to go to the trouble of
seeking new pastures free from wolves. Cynical as it may
sound, that is the old way for Asia and last Sunday's
disaster won't change it.
The writer holds a
Master of Science in Strategic Studies from Singapore's
Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies. He
specializes in international affairs, security issues
and terrorism.
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Dec 31, 2004
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