Japanese
election could make a samurai flinch
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - There's no clear front-runner, and the outcome of Sunday's elections to
the Upper House of Japan's Diet, or parliament, could usher in two-party
governance, for decades an unknown system in the nation controlled - some would
say ruled - by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of charismatic but
politically troubled Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.
Koizumi may be losing ground to his main opposition rival. In the final stage
of the campaign, all the major Japanese media have suggested that the LDP is
likely to fall behind the largest opposition, the Democratic Party of Japan
(DPJ), in this Sunday's elections to the Upper House. Koizumi's faltering
appears largely due to the controversial pension-reform issue - by some
accounts a pension scandal involving some members of Koizumi's cabinet, the
former opposition chief and even Koizumi himself a long time ago. If those
polls prove right, Koizumi will face further questions about his leadership
from both inside and outside the party soon after the election.
The DPJ, meanwhile, is likely to increase its seats by a substantial number,
putting Japan firmly on the path to a two-party system, a process that gained
momentum in last November's Lower House election. Today, it is in essence
one-party rule, by Koizumi's LDP. Currently, the Upper House has 247 seats, but
through the election, the number will be reduced to 242. Every three years,
half of the six-year-term seats are up for election; this time it's 121 seats.
Elections to the Lower House, with four-year terms, will be held by November
2007.
Fifty is the key number for this election. This is because Koizumi and LDP
leaders have set a clear target of 50 seats, one more than its pre-election
strength, and including a now-vacant seat in Kagoshima prefecture, as the LDP's
dividing line of win-or-lose in the election. Meanwhile, taking the offensive,
the DPJ also has targeted 50 as its goal, although the number of its
pre-election seats is just 32. If Koizumi's LDP loses many of its 50
pre-election seats, he might be swept from office (although he is not
personally contesting for a seat), taking responsibility for a potential
massive defeat.
On the other hand, although this is a more unlikely scenario, if the LDP on the
defensive maintains its 50-seat pre-election strength, Koizumi will be able to
boost his political position and probably remain in office until the next LDP
presidential election to be held in September 2006. This could make him the
third-longest-serving LDP leader, following Eisaku Sato and Shigeru Yoshida
and, indeed, outstripping Yasuhiro Nakasone, who served for five years.
This week every major Japanese medium, including both liberal newspaper Asahi
Shimbun and conservative Yomiuri Shimbun, almost identically reported that the
DPJ is getting enough of a nod to outstrip the LDP's target of 51 seats, while
estimating the LDP seats to remain in the high 40s.
The number 50 has further significance. The last Upper House election turnout
three years ago was 56.44%. Experts expect that if the voter turnout falls
below 50% in Sunday's election, the LDP and its coalition partner, the New
Komeito, will prevail. On the other hand, if turnout exceeds 50%, this could
well mean victory for the opposition DPJ. This is because the LDP does not need
to rely so much on non-affiliated voters, rather on solid organization support,
such as endorsements and get-out-the-vote drives from the construction industry
and medical associations. New Komeito is the same. Its power base is Soka
Gakkai, the nation's largest lay Buddhist group. Meanwhile, although the DPJ
largely counts on labor votes, as does the US Democratic Party, it is more
dependent on non-affiliated voters. The higher turnout works to the advantage
of the opposition DPJ, as it did in last November's Lower House election.
The pension issue - non-payment of mandatory premiums by key political figures
- takes politics closer to the "sleeping voters", or the silent majority. Then
there's Iraq.
Pension reform and Self-Defense Force (SDF) participation (with a humanitarian
mandate) in a multinational force in Iraq are two major issues. But most
Japanese consider the pension issue most important in the election. For one
reason, this is not just a pocket-money issue, but also one that involves
widespread anxiety about everybody's future. The Japanese public has taken
matters into its own hands, as Japan is well on its way to being an aging
society, with fewer children, more rapidly than any other country. People,
especially younger generations, are very concerned about whether they can be
sure of receiving a pension in the future. Their concerns are probably
justified. For example, Japan's fertility rate in 2003 fell to a record low of
1.29 children per woman, according to government statistics released on June
10. This number is shockingly low compared with the world's average of 2.6
children and with the US average of 2.07, both in 2002.
For another reason, the pension issue has been transformed into a highly
emotional nonpayment scandal. So far, Japanese media found that more than 100
out of 727 Diet members did not pay mandatory premiums into the National
Pension System. Among five major parties, the LDP had the largest number,
nearly 70 members, of non-payers. Koizumi also did not pay mandatory premiums
for eight months from August 1969 to March 1970. That was when he came back
home from London, where he had gone to study. Koizumi insisted that it was a
long time ago and that he did not believe he had a legal obligation to pay into
pension plans at that time. Although he later admitted his fault, his excuse
was not persuasive and he had to meet with criticism, even from young people:
in Japan, when people turn 20, even university students, all have to pay
mandatory premiums, with a few exceptions. Moreover, the LDP's persistent
refusal to disclose the payments and non-payments of its Diet members sparked
the outrage of many Japanese. Thus this non-payment scandal reawakened
apathetic, sleeping voters, and energized the young.
The forcible, hardball passage of a controversial pension-reform bill into law
further invited public indignation, since ordinary citizens will be obliged to
pay more - in return for fewer benefits. The LDP and its coalition partner, New
Komeito, in essence railroaded the pension-reform bill during the ordinary Diet
session that ended on June 16, despite stiff resistance from the opposition
camp. The opposition parties also criticized the government, anxious to pass
the reform package through the Diet, for having deliberately delayed disclose
of the crucial fertility rate figure of 1.29 for 2003, which would likely
affect the calculation of future pension benefits and obligations - thus
hampering the reform process. This figure was announced on June 10, after the
pension-reform bill was enacted on June 6.
The bill itself had some controversial points. The government's plan called for
hiking premiums every year until 2017 while slashing benefits - a scheme that
critics said would leave structural problems such as the burden of imbalances
among generations, occupations and household types virtually untouched. The LDP
once promised to set a fixed level of premiums and to guarantee that standard
pension payments for the current working generation will be no less than 50% of
their income, but later it retreated from this commitment, saying standard
pension payments for the current working generation would be lower than 50%,
starting after the year when they start receiving pension payments.
The DPJ, for its part, proposed a Swedish-style pension system, that the three
existing public pension systems be integrated into one income-proportional
pension program basically funded through tax revenue - mainly the consumption
tax - to help low-income households and also to get people who currently refuse
to pay compulsory pension premiums also to shell out money to support the
system.
The DPJ emphasizes that it presented a better pension-reform proposal, and
opposition party leaders, including those of the Japanese Communist Party and
the Social Democratic Party, are slamming the LDP-led ruling parties for
forcing the Diet passage of pension-reform bills without thorough debates,
while doing whistle-stop campaigns across the country now. Thus the pension
issue has put Koizumi and the LDP on the defensive throughout the campaign.
Fait accompli politics?
The dispatch of SDF troops to Iraq is another hot issue in the campaign.
Opposition candidates are attacking Koizumi for first telling US President
George W Bush during a bilateral summit in the US state of Georgia on June 8
about his plans to have the SDF take part in the multinational force in Iraq -
without any prior discussion on the matter at home.
Koizumi on June 17, the last day of the latest Diet session, called together
all the opposition party leaders to hear an explanation of his and the
government's decision. Critics say that was just a token gesture and Koizumi
has acted largely on "foregone conclusions", creating one fait accompli after
another without fully explaining his positions on pension reform and SDF
participation in the multinational force to the public via the Diet.
Although the issue of SDF participation received little attention in the last
Diet session, the majority of the Japanese are against the SDF participation in
the multinational force. According to the recent opinion poll conducted by the
Asahi Shimbun, 58% of those polled were against it, and 69% of those surveyed
saw problems with Koizumi's attitude and approaching, in first telling Bush
about his plans about the SDF dispatch to the multinational force in Iraq -
before telling the Japanese people.
Jenkins effect on the election remains to be seen
Although Koizumi seems to thrash to windward, he may be able to get some wind
at his back this Friday, just two days ahead of the Sunday polls. Last Monday,
the Japanese government announced that Japan and North Korea have decided to
bring about a reunion in Jakarta on Friday of repatriated Japanese abductee
Hitomi Soga, 45, and her family - her American husband Charles Robert Jenkins,
64, an alleged Korean War deserter, and their two North Korean-born daughters,
Mika, 21, and Belinda, 18. North Korean agents kidnapped Soga and her mother
Miyoshi, then 46, together in 1978 on the coast of Sado Island where Soga lives
now. It is believed they were abducted in order to help North Korean agents
learn Japanese language and culture. North Korea denies it kidnapped her
mother.
Because the United States considers him a deserter and because the US and Japan
have an extradition treaty, Jenkins has refused to return to Japan - and
certain court-martial in the US. Instead Japan has sought a willing third
country without a US extradition treaty - Indonesia seems perfect.
Soga met Koizumi on Wednesday night and left Japan Thursday morning for Jakarta
with Japanese officials. The dramatic reunion with her family on Friday will be
the first time in 21 months since Soga returned to Japan.
Critics say the decision was made as Koizumi wanted the reunion to take place
just ahead of Sunday's election to win voters' support, especially of
non-affiliates, for the ruling-coalition parties. Koizumi denied any political
motivation, repeatedly saying to the Japanese media that "this is a
humanitarian issue and the sooner they reunite, the better".
But Koizumi has been making strategic moves steadily since last month. For
example, he repeatedly has told the media that he would normalize diplomatic
relations with North Korea within two years, strongly suggesting that this
would take place during his administration. This was clearly a signal to North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il, urging him to make the reunion happen ahead of
Japan's Upper House election. Kim agreed with Koizumi, decided to let Jenkins
go, apparently hoping for Japan's massive future energy aid and economic
assistance in return for normalization and the improvement of relations with
Japan as well as the US. Furthermore, on Tuesday as expected, deputy chief
cabinet secretary Sen Sugiura said Tokyo is ready to resume talks on
normalizing ties with Pyongyang now that a reunion between Soga and her husband
and daughters living in North Korea has been set for Friday.
Critics say Koizumi appears to have fallen in love with his own legend,
thinking about the rest of his term in office - by rushing to normalization
with Kim, without strongly calling for credible information on the other
missing abductees' fate, including Soga's mother's, and the dismantlement of
North Korea's nuclear weapons and programs. So how much broad support of
voters, especially unaffiliated ones, this dramatic reunion in Jakarta on
Friday can bring Koizumi remains to be seen.
The tricky factor in this election is Japanese conservatives, mostly in
non-metropolitan areas, who have strongly supported the LDP for years but have
not strongly supported Koizumi this time around. Despite recent data on the
recovery of the economy, mostly shown in large metropolitan areas such as Tokyo
and Osaka, significant signs of recovery in non-metropolitan areas are yet to
be identified. Ironically, on the other hand, because of the structural reform
of the public sector and the economy by the Koizumi administration, non-metro
people lost many public pork-barrel projects and are struggling to make a
living. Combined with the emotional pension issue, some of these people seem to
have changed political positions to support the DPJ this time.
As if to reflect weakening of the LDP's conservative stronghold in the
non-metro areas, every major Japanese newspaper has reported the LDP candidates
in half of the 27 single-seat districts such as Nagasaki prefecture are either
trailing or are neck-and-neck with candidates endorsed or backed by the
opposition DPJ or independents. Furthermore, in the proportional-representation
section, LDP seats could possibly drop again to the party's record low of 14 in
1998, while the DPJ is expected to secure some 20 seats. So close to the
election, Japanese voters, especially the non-affiliates, are not rallying
behind the Koizumi administration as they did in the last Upper House election
three years ago - just three months after Koizumi took the office at the
pinnacle of his popularity.
In the past few months, Koizumi has been using one word pretty often to
describe his own political ends: "humanitarian". Indeed, until recently,
nothing seemed impossible for Koizumi when he spoke this word. On his second
trip to North Korea in May, he appeared ready to extend a helping hand to Kim,
promising to give Pyongyang "humanitarian" aid such as food, medicine and
medical supplies and equipment in exchange for five children's return to their
four parents in Japan, amid criticism that he paid ransom money to Kim - he
denied the charge. Those parents are former hostages in North Korea who
returned to Japan after Koizumi's first Pyongyang summit in September 2002. He
also has sent some 1,000 Japanese troops and support personnel to Samawah, a
southern Iraq city, in the name of a "humanitarian" mission, despite almost
daily domestic opposition to the Iraq war and Japan's involvement in it. And
the Friday reunion in Jakarta also is termed "humanitarian". Voters may be more
hard-headed.
To his credit, Koizumi must strongly believe he is doing humanitarian acts, but
critics say those are his own political ends just ahead of the election. Can
this type of "humanitarian" approach win broad support in Sunday's national
election? For sure, this Upper House election will be a confidence vote by the
Japanese public not only over what the Koizumi administration has done in terms
of his imperfectly implemented reform agenda since he took office in April
2001, but also over his political mode of humanitarianism.
Breakdown of Upper House seats: Total membership 247
Liberal Democratic Party 115
The Democratic Party and The Shin-Ryokufukai 72
New Komeito 23
Japanese Communist Party 20
Social Democratic Party 5
Independents (Mushozoku no Kai) 4
Greens 2
Independents 4
Incumbents 245
Vacancies 2
Source: Official
home page of the Upper House
Kosuke Takahashi is a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun and is
currently a freelance correspondent based in Tokyo.
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