Fukuda's political troubles
deepen By Purnendra Jain
ADELAIDE - Less than eighth months since
assuming office, Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's
popularity rate is sinking fast. Questions are
being asked as to whether Fukuda will survive even
the average life span of prime ministers in Japan,
which is roughly two years. His predecessor,
Shinzo Abe resigned before completing one year in
office, but before him Junichiro Koizumi remained
in the position for about five years.
Two
weeks ago, the Asahi newspaper reported Fukuda's
popularity falling to 25%, which sits below the
level of his predecessor Abe's, before his
resignation.
Since he took office in
September last year, Fukuda has hit
many
political hurdles and each has
weakened his position significantly, both within
his own party and among the ordinary people of
Japan. His political future took a further
precarious turn with the crushing defeat of his
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in a by-election
for a Lower House seat of Japan's parliament
(Diet) held last week in Yamaguchi prefecture in
southwest Japan.
The vacancy was filled by
the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)
candidate Hideo Hiraoka who comprehensively
defeated his LDP rival Shigetaro Yamamoto.
Although this has not changed the political
balance in the Lower House, it does symbolize the
growing dissatisfaction with Fukuda's leadership,
even in rural and regional areas such as Yamaguchi
where the LDP has been traditionally strong.
Fukuda's problems partly arise from the
fact that since July last year the Upper House of
the Diet is controlled by opposition parties led
by the DPJ and its leader Ichiro Ozawa. The LDP
for most of its rule since 1955 enjoyed at least a
working majority in both houses and was able to
pass legislation without much opposition.
Double
trouble The first major hurdle that
Fukuda had to deal with was to renew expired
legislation enabling Japan's Self-Defense Forces
to operate in the Indian Ocean providing support
to the US-led mission in and around Afghanistan.
After being passed in the lower house in November
2007, the bill was rejected by the
opposition-controlled Upper House. To deal with
the impasse, late last year Fukuda even tried to
form a "grand coalition" with the DPJ which was
accepted by Ozawa but did not eventuate due to
opposition within the DPJ.
With no other
option left, the Fukuda cabinet had to finally
take recourse to Article 59 of the constitution.
In the event that a bill is rejected by the Upper
House, or no action is taken within 60 days since
passing of a bill in the Lower House, the
constitution allows the lower house to pass a bill
a second time by a two-thirds majority of the
members present.
It was the first time
since the early 1950s that a bill went through a
second vote in the Lower House after being
rejected by the Upper House. While opposition
criticized the government's railroading the bill
through its majority, it did not consider a
censure motion against Fukuda in the upper house
which could have embarrassed Fukuda but not really
forced his resignation.
Fukuda faced a
similar situation with regards to a bill on petrol
tax after it was passed by the lower house on
February 29, but the Upper House would not act on
it. Using the "60 days" clause, the Fukuda
government with its two thirds majority in the
Lower House was able to pass this legislation on
April 30, making it the second legislation within
months to be passed under Article 59 of the
constitution.
Petrol tax is
specific-purpose revenue which often goes to
wasteful road construction projects. Japan has
been much criticized for its waste of public funds
on unnecessary public works projects, earning the
nation the sobriquet "construction state".
Although Fukuda promised that his government will
introduce a new legislation that would enable
proceeds from the tax to go to general revenue
instead of road construction as in the past, the
opposition-controlled Upper House would not buy
Fukuda's pledge.
Due to non-renewal of the
tax legislation, petrol prices from April 1 in
Japan fell significantly, up to 24 yen (24 US
cents) a liter. While consumers enjoyed the
windfall from the political impasse, the
government became increasingly nervous about its
falling tax revenue. Japan's fiscal situation
remains difficult as the nation's gross public
debt has reached over 170% of gross domestic
product and is likely to rise further. Given
Japan's deficit budget and rising public debt, the
government could not afford to lose some US$25
billion annually through the lapse of the petrol
tax.
Fukuda's announcement that proceeds
from the petroleum tax would go to general revenue
from the next fiscal year has outraged a sizeable
number of parliamentarians from his own party.
Pro-construction LDP members who belong to the
parliamentary group known as the "road tribe" may
rebel against Fukuda if he tries to introduce a
new bill to transfer the tax revenue to the
general account.
While the
opposition-controlled Upper House has made
Fukuda's political life difficult, it may also be
the case that his position comes under attack from
his own party members if he pushes reform too
fast. It will be difficult for Fukuda to act like
Koizumi who was known for his reformist agenda and
was willing to fight with his own party colleagues
and win. He has neither the fighting spirit nor
public support that Koizumi enjoyed.
That
Fukuda realizes the intensity of the looming
domestic political crisis is clear from his
decision to cancel part of his overseas trips
during the "golden week" holiday period. Fukuda
cut short his overseas trip by canceling his
meetings with the leaders of Britain, Germany and
France and returned home after his meeting with
President Vladimir Putin and his successor Dmitri
Medvedev in Moscow only because Tokyo and Moscow
have a long-standing territorial dispute off the
north of Hokkaido with energy resources both want
to tap.
Early elections or change in
leadership It is likely that forces
will gather within the LDP to remove Fukuda from
the position immediately after the Group of Eight
summit to be held in Hokkaido in July. The
possibility of the Abe pattern being repeated is
high. Abe continued as prime minister after his
party's crushing defeat in the Upper House
elections in July. He refused to stand aside even
after the political humiliation and attended the
September Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit
in Sydney. But immediately upon his return to
Tokyo, he buckled under pressure and announced his
resignation as prime minister.
The other
plausible, but less likely, scenario is Fukuda's
insistence to continue and announce a snap
election at an opportune time. A general election
is not due until September 2009, but the prime
minister has the prerogative to dissolve the Lower
House and announce a general election anytime
before the due date.
DPJ leader Ozawa has
tried to pressure Fukuda to hold early elections
as a referendum on his leadership. Fukuda has not
made any statement about the possibility of a snap
poll. This may not be in the party's interest as
together with its coalition partner New Komeito it
enjoys a solid majority in the Lower House.
Given Fukuda's plummeting popularity and
voters withdrawing their support from the LDP (the
Yamaguchi by-election was a mini political
barometer), it is likely that the party will lose
seats in the Lower House, making its political
position more fragile in the Diet. The 2005
Koizumi electoral magic by successfully recruiting
"political assassins" cannot be repeated so soon
by any politician, let alone by Fukuda.
Purnendra Jain
is professor and head of Asian Studies at
Australia's Adelaide University.
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