Fukuda's heir faces daunting task
By Kosuke Takahashi
TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda's surprise announcement late on
Monday that he will step down replicates that of his immediate predecessor,
Shinzo Abe, who also abruptly abandoned the nation's top post about the same
time last year.
This turmoil represents the dysfunctional politics of the world's
second-largest economy, buffeted by a forcible opposition camp and a severe
business downturn. Taro Aso, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP's) best
hope, will no doubt replace Fukuda. But Aso also will have a rocky road ahead,
causing a snap election that may change the governing party, which would
represent a major power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule for more
than half a century.
Fukuda, 72, said on Monday he was resigning because of a political deadlock
that has made it impossible for him to implement key policies, an adverse
legacy of the ruling LDP's crushing defeat in the July 2007 Upper House
elections by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ).
The LDP will hold an election on September 22 for the party presidency - this
person automatically becomes premier. The party will intentionally showcase the
election to capitalize on the dramatic effects of the televised presidential
campaign, which the LDP needs to buoy approval ratings to win the next general
election. This will be the LDP's last-ditch effort to regain the party's
strength.
DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, meanwhile, is likely to win his party's presidential
election, which will be announced on September 8, without any contest,
diminishing the public appeal of the DPJ's key policies.
Aso, 67, a political ally of Fukuda and currently the LDP's number two as
secretary general, is expected to see off the possible challenge of Yuriko
Koike, a former high-profile TV anchorwoman, and Sadakazu Tanigaki, a former
finance minister, among other possible candidates for the LDP presidency.
"Aso is by far the most popular politician with the public," Gerald Curtis,
professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University, told Asia Times Online
in an e-mail interview. "He probably will call an election within a month or
two of becoming prime minister to try to convert the bounce he will get in the
public opinion polls when he comes into office into votes for the LDP. He has
to move before the public discovers that he is no more able than Fukuda to get
very much done that the DPJ opposes."
Beset from all sides
"In my weather-eye, things won't keep the ball rolling," Fukuda said in a
hastily called press conference broadcast nationwide on television on Monday
night. "I can see myself through an objective perspective. I am different from
you." He raised his voice when a reporter's question referred to his
coolly-detached attitude in what was an unusual resignation announcement.
Opposition parties at once criticized Fukuda by saying he was "quite
irresponsible" in relinquishing the reins of government.
Fukuda's abrupt resignation announcement came as the government and ruling
parties last Friday mapped out a comprehensive economic package worth about
US$108 billion in response to the rising prices of consumer goods and crude
oil.
Fukuda may have become keenly aware of the lack of his own leadership and he
was beset from all sides from within and without the LDP. He had placed more
importance on fiscal discipline than on spending more, but the package included
tax breaks for one year for lower- and mid-income groups. The LDP's coalition
partner, New Komeito took a strong lead in hammering out this tax cut in close
coordination with Aso, which might have upset Fukuda.
To make matters worse, Japan hosting of the Group of Eight summit in July,
Fukuda's first cabinet reshuffle in August and his promise to cut taxes have
failed to boost his popularity. His administration's approval ratings remain in
the vicinity of the mid to high 20s, according to recent public opinion polls.
This is similar to the unpopular Yoshiro Mori administration, which ended in
2001 after about a year. Fukuda became premier last September following Shinzo
Abe's resignation.
Mori, who still holds much influence over the LDP's largest and most powerful
faction led by chief cabinet secretary Nobutaka Machimura, has repeatedly said
Aso should be the next prime minister, suggesting Aso would be a good choice to
head the party going into the next national election.
Another reason why Fukuda is quitting could be the poor prospects for the
passage of a bill to extend the Maritime Self-Defense Force's refueling mission
in the Indian Ocean for anti-terrorism operations in and around Afghanistan in
an extraordinary Diet (parliament) session. This bill is the conservative LDP's
high-priority issue and is regarded as the cornerstone of the Japan-United
States military alliance and Tokyo's commitment to international cooperation
against terrorism.
The LDP last year once failed to have the Diet extend a predecessor law for the
mission as the Upper House, which was dominated by opposition parties, rejected
the bill. The LDP's coalition partner New Komeito remains cautious about
military cooperation with the US.
"Fukuda just did not have it in him to get out and talk to the public and make
his case," Curtis, the professor of Japanese politics at Columbia University,
said. "When he realized that the DPJ was going to oppose him on the Indian
Ocean issue as well as just about everything else, and when his numbers did not
budge after his cabinet reshuffle, and with the Komeito apparently wanting an
early election, he concluded that this Diet session would be as contentious as
the last one and that he was too unpopular to take the party into the election.
So he decided to get out before the Diet opens."
But Aso, popular among the young because he does no hesitate to say that he
likes comic books and cartoon films, faces the same daunting tasks as Fukuda.
With Fukuda's resignation adding to the political turmoil, early elections for
the Lower House are expected, possibly within this year, and they could lead to
a change in government.
Aso is "quite confident that he will be more popular than Ozawa", said Curtis,
who had dinner with him in July.
Japan's diplomatic relations with neighboring countries, especially South
Korea, may be strained if Aso is elected prime minister, regardless of his
popularity in Japan. He has a hawkish foreign policy stance in line with former
prime minister Shinzo Abe. Aso has said the Korean people voluntarily adopted
Japanese names during Japanese colonial rule, infuriating Koreans and drawing
protests from the governments of North and South Korea and Koreans at home and
abroad. South Korean newspapers have already expressed wariness over arch-hawk
Aso's succession of power.
Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a
freelance correspondent based in Tokyo. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net.
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