TOKYO - Former prime minister Yasuo Fukuda 's dramatic resignation on September
1 has prompted talk of a political vacuum building up in Japan, but a leading
analyst has said the hot race for the ruling party's presidency proves the
contrary.
"I would not agree that Japan is in turmoil," says Jeffrey Kingston, director
of Asian Studies, Temple University in Japan and author of the acclaimed book Japan's
Quiet Transformation.
Kingston told Inter Press Service that Japan at the moment is "a democracy
searching a way out of political gridlock in the Diet [parliament] and
witnessing intra-party competition for leadership, that is already decided". He
interprets the seeming turmoil in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) as
a way of projecting the
image of the LDP as "'more democratic and vibrant than the opposition
Democratic Party of Japan [DPJ]".
The LDP has ruled Japan ever since the end of World War II, barring a ten-month
period in 1993. It is credited with overseeing Japan's rise from the military
defeat and foreign occupation to becoming the second-largest economy in the
world.
But, as the party looks for a third prime minister in less than two years, one
whose main job will be to lead it through elections for the lower house in less
than a year, the once-powerful LDP seems in disarray. Fukuda and his
predecessor Shinzo Abe were both seen as ineffective in the face of an
opposition which has repeatedly used its majority in the Upper House of
parliament to stall legislation by the conservative ruling party.
Japan, Kingston said, is a nation in transition. "It's cobbling together a new
paradigm in a messy and prolonged process. It's gone through the Meji
Restoration and then US occupation. It's now in its third transformation, and
it is being negotiated and debated, so this process will involve incremental
reforms of an evolutionary nature."
Kingston is laying his bets on Taro Aso for the party presidency. "It's Aso's
fourth bid for the party presidency, while the other candidates are running for
the first time," he said.
Aso's conservative credentials are formidable. His father was chairman of the
large Aso Cement Company and close to former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka,
while his mother was former prime minister Shigeru Yoshida's daughter. Aso's
wife is the third daughter of another former prime minister, Zenko Suzuki, and
his younger sister, Nobuko, is the wife of Prince Tomohito of Mikasa, a first
cousin of the Emperor Akihito.
Yet, the race for top post of the LDP has gained extra attention because, for
the first time in nearly 40 years, there are as many as five candidates in the
race. They include a woman - another first in Japanese politics - Yuriko Koike,
who has served as defense minister, is a former TV news presenter and a
graduate of Cairo University who speaks fluent Arabic and English.
According to a survey conducted by the daily Yomiuri Shimbun, Aso, who is LDP
secretary general, may garner as many as 300 of the 527 votes to secure the
party presidency. The results of survey conducted through the weekend by
telephone in all 47 prefectures, including Tokyo and Hokkaido, were made known
on Monday.
While 57% said they would vote for Aso, 10% favored Koike for the LDP
leadership. Party functionary Nobuteru Ishihara and Kaoru Yosano, state
minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, tied for third place with 7%
each.
About 20% said general elections should be held by September next year, when
the term of office for the current lower house members expires.
Whatever happens, the new prime minister will have to deal with a complex
agenda. At home he will have to help people deal with soaring inflation,
address the problems of the working poor and growing income gaps while also
sorting out the lost pension records mess, instituting tax reforms and
improving social service for a rapidly aging society.
Abroad, the new prime minister must deal with military ties with the US and
relations in the neighborhood.
The US needs the continuing role of Japan's maritime Self-Defense Forces (SDF)
in the Indian Ocean to help with fuel deliveries. Japan has been providing fuel
and other logistical support for coalition warships in the Indian Ocean since
November 2001. Under the special anti-terrorism law, it has been extended
several times.
The five candidates have unanimously stated that they will make every effort to
continue the maritime SDF activities in the Indian Ocean as part of the US-led
battle against terrorism in Afghanistan, citing Japan's responsibility to play
a supporting role.
In Iraq, however, the government has decided to terminate its air SDF mission
there by the end of the year, bringing an end to the more than four year long
mission.
"Japan has been looking for a graceful exit for some time and this seems as
good a time as any," Kingston said. "Most of the other allies have bailed out.
Japan has been one of the most loyal supporters of Bush's war despite deep
public misgivings about need for and constitutionality of the mission and
unease with the growing security cooperation with US. The LDP can score points
with the public at a time when it really needs to unveil policies and
initiatives that resonate with voters."
But voters are increasingly looking at the centrist Democratic Party of Japan
as a possible alternative and many remember how it briefly but dramatically
ousted the LDP from power in 1993.
"'The public wants leaders who can relate to them," says Kyouhei Imanaka,
president of a printing company.
"We're tired of their [LDP] speeches, we want to see action," Imanaka said. "We
are bored with them. We want candidates who say something we can believe in.
They can't understand how ordinary people think because most of them are born
into rich, political families."
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