TOKYO - With ordinary Japanese people's lives becoming harder amid
deteriorating global economic conditions and a domestic slowdown, the patrician
Taro Aso is set to become the nation's next prime minister in a Diet vote on
Wednesday. His imminent task is to keep his ruling Liberal Democratic Party
(LDP) in power as the front man in a grueling snap election expected as early
as October.
As head of the party's sixth-largest faction consisting of just 20 lawmakers,
Aso, 68, won the LDP election Monday by a landslide by gaining two-thirds of
the vote. Many LDP members very much looked to his popularity with the public
and his expansionary fiscal policy to prime the economic pump, an always great
appeal before and during any elections.
The triumph of the Aso, a former foreign minister, represented the
party's biggest retreat from
former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's
aggressive restructuring policies which have
deepened inequalities in Japanese society,
especially between urban and rural areas. The LDP
was severely defeated in the countryside in
last year's Upper House elections by the
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and this month conducted street
oratories by five candidates during its 12-day campaign to regain the party's
strength.
"Aso is known as in favor of government spending to boost the economy," Ashley
Davies, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Singapore, wrote in a client note
Tuesday. "However, with government debt already at 180% of GDP, there is a
limit to how much fiscal stimulus can be applied to the economy. This leaves
politics impotent."
Japan, including the central and local governments, is currently suffering from
a huge accumulated debt of 922 trillion yen (US$8.8 trillion), while the
nation's gross domestic product was 515 trillion yen ($4.8 trillion) in the
last fiscal year ended March 31.
Nomura Research Institute's chief economist Richard C Koo is expected to be
among the brains of the Aso administration. Koo was vocally critical of the
economic and fiscal policies of Koizumi and his cabinet, as he believed that
fiscal stimulus steps were necessary for Japan to achieve sustainable economic
growth.
Silver spoon
Aso, a Catholic, is popular among the young because he does not hesitate to say
that he likes comic books and cartoon films. He once said on television that he
reads 10 to 15 comic magazines every week. Less well known among young voters
is that he was born with a ultra-silver spoon in his mouth. His family pedigree
may surprise some people as it reflects much of Japan's modern history.
Aso's great-great-grandfather is Toshimitsu Okubo, one of the men who
contributed to opening up Japan by downing Tokugawa Shogunate during the Meiji
Restoration in the late 19th century. Even opposition DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa,
66, cites Okubo as one of his most-respected historical characters. Aso's
grandfather is the late prime minister Shigeru Yoshida, the most powerful
post-World War II leader who conducted postwar reconstruction. His
father-in-law was the late prime minister Zenko Suzuki.
Aso's younger sister got married to the eldest son of Imperial Highnesses
Prince and Princess Mikasa, the current emperor's uncle and aunt. Beside those
well-known figures, also related by marriages are Prince Fumimaro Konoe,
Morihiro Hosokawa, Nobusuke Kishi and Shinzo Abe - all former prime ministers.
Aso headed his family's 130-year-old company, Aso Cement Company, now called
Lafage Aso Cement Company, from 1973 to 1979. In 1976, he participated in
shooting competition in the Montreal Olympics.
"Does one have to be the child or grandchild of a prime minister to become the
prime minister?" asked Naoto Kan, acting president of the opposition DPJ, in a
television appearance Monday.
Despite this wealth and privilege, Aso is trying to position himself
politically as a man with the common touch ahead of the upcoming national
election - and referencing comics is one of his favorite ways. He also speaks
in a very curt and casual way, erasing the image of his prestigious upbringing.
In his efforts to show he is not the ultimate preppy, Aso has sometimes made
outrageous comments. For example, in July 2007, when said even people with
Alzheimer's disease can tell that Japanese rice is more expensive in China than
in Japan. He later offered an apology, but it was viewed as a foot-in-mouth
mistake.
Most recently, Aso said during this month's campaign that heavy rain had
fortunately hit Okazaki City and Anjo City in Aichi prefecture, rather than a
much larger nearby city. When torrential rain hit central Japan and killed two
people and flooded about 3,000 homes in Okazaki, he was forced to send a letter
of apology to the two cities.
Aso's gaffe-prone remarks have not been confined to Japan. Aso has said that
Koreans voluntarily adopted Japanese names during Japanese colonial rule,
infuriating Koreans and drawing protests from the governments and citizens of
North and South Korea.
Critics say Aso cannot feel the pain of ordinary Japanese, especially when many
are suffering from hefty oil and food prices and the increasing tax burden of
the country's rapidly aging population. In Japan, the jobless rate for those
below 24 is more than 10% and many analysts have warned of further damage to
the nation economic potential.
With these factors in mind, it is not clear if Aso's popularity will bring
young people to voting stations - even if he rushes to hold a snap election to
capitalize on any honeymoon support that he receives.
The next national election is historically significant in that it could change
the ruling party. This would be a major power shift from Japan's more than 50
years of de facto one-party rule.
No one expects the next election to hinge on Aso's pedigree, but it could be
one measure of how the issue of rich versus poor plays these days in Japan. It
might not tell much about Taro Aso, but it could tell a lot about the country.
Kosuke Takahashi, a former staff writer at the Asahi Shimbun, is a
freelance correspondent based in Tokyo. He can be contacted at letters@kosuke.net.
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last year's Upper House elections by the
opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and this month conducted street
oratories by five candidates during its 12-day campaign to regain the party's
strength.
