Japan heads for landmark polls
By Catherine Makino
"The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election on Sunday is a prelude battle to a
crucial general election, likely to be held in August, accelerating a major
power shift from Japan's de facto one-party rule by the Liberal Democratic
Party for more than half a century." A deja vu moment in
Japan - Asia Times Online, July 11, 2009.
TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso called for sudden elections next month
after his party suffered a major defeat in Sunday's Tokyo metropolitan
election. Aso will dissolve the parliament on July 21, paving the way for a
national election.
"The calling for a national election has the consensus from the Liberal
Democratic Party [LDP] and our coalition partner, the New
Komeito," Aso said. "We agreed the election will take place on August 30."
Experts say the results of Sunday's election, a barometer for the upcoming
nationwide vote, was symptomatic of rising public anger over government
scandals, policy flip-flops and Aso's perceived inability to tackle the worst
recession to hit Japan since World War II.
"They are angry about the government's poor performance in lowering the misery
index and turned off by Aso's lack of leadership skills," said Jeffrey
Kingston, a political specialist at the Tokyo-based Temple University. "Tokyo
sent a loud and clear message that the LDP is living on borrowed time."
If elections were held immediately, analysts predict that the LDP would lose
hands down, even if Aso, now widely unpopular, resigned.
A win by the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) would be historic and
end more than 50 years of nearly unbroken rule by Japan's ruling Liberal
Democratic Party. The LDP ascended to power in 1955 and has ruled Japan almost
continuously for the past 50 years.
According to Takeo Kawamura, the top government spokesman, the results of
Sunday's election were a major setback for Aso's party.
"It was a local election, but we have to sincerely accept the results," the
spokesman said.
The LDP won 38 seats in Tokyo while the New Komeito won 23, leaving the ruling
block three seats short of the 64 needed for a majority.
Naoto Kan, the deputy president of the opposition DPJ, said the results showed
that Tokyo's residents said "No" to Aso, the LDP and the New Komeito.
Meanwhile, politicians from the ruling coalition are concerned about a sharp
electoral slide in the upcoming elections.
"It is troublesome for me," said LDP governor Shintaro Ishihara in a press
conference Monday. "Sunday's election reflects how the government caused these
national problems, which have now come to Tokyo."
Osaka's Governor Toru Hashimoto called the LDP insensitive and blamed them for
causing everyone to suffer.
"If Prime Minister Aso thinks the election in Tokyo doesn't reflect the
national feelings about him and his party, then he should quit as a politician,
because he's way off," Hashimoto said.
Aso said Saturday he doesn't have any intention of resigning and would not bow
to any move to oust him. In fact, analysts believe Aso's decision to have an
election next month is to prevent calls from within his own party to resign as
its leader.
"Aso must assume that if he further delays the general election, the infighting
with the LDP will worsen, possibly forcing him out of office," Robert Dujarric
from the Temple University in Japan, told Inter Press Service. "It further
discredits the ruling party in the eyes of the voters regardless of whether Aso
himself weathers the storm. They may think there's little chance the economy
will improve under him."
On the election campaign front, Dujarric says, the LDP may think that it has
much more experience running a national campaign than the DPJ.
"Therefore, the LDP leaders may believe that if they go to the polls quickly,
they will be better than their DPJ opponents at running a campaign on short
notice. Its chances of winning are slim."
What needs to be done now is to magnify the differences between the ruling
coalition and its challenger, according to Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi at the
Keio University. "The differences lie far more in the national defense, foreign
policy areas than elsewhere, the areas such as health care, pension,
employment, etc," he told IPS.
The DPJ has long been silent on crucial issues like national defense, and the
country's relationship with the US, analysts say, the public has the right to
know how they would steer these issues if they came to power.
Whoever becomes Japan's next prime minister faces the daunting task of reviving
the country's flagging economy, a declining and graying population and the loss
of employment opportunities in rural areas.
"For the ruling LDP, the chance to win the general election looks slimmer than
ever before," Tanoguchi said. "Yet to have another round of internal struggle
to somehow churn out a yet new prime ministerial candidate is doomed to end up
a storm digging exercise for them, one has to say."
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
