United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has to be more mindful of his
body language. It says a lot about his state of mind. This is something that
can be developed by playing poker, among other things, and given the very high
stakes game that is unfolding in Asia, perhaps a round of cards might be just
what Gates needs.
Two photos of Gates this month - one taken in Tokyo and a later one taken in
Seoul - convey two different messages entirely. The photo of Gates meeting with
Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa in Tokyo shows an unhappy, even
irate, Gates. There is no mistaking his body language. His latest trip to Japan
was no doubt frustrating, or perhaps worse, a waste of his time.
In Seoul just a few hours later, Gates was all smiles as the
cameras clicked.
Back in Washington DC, the Washington Post ran a picture of a grumpy Gates in
Tokyo along with a story in which a senior US State Department official
declared that, these days, China was easier to deal with than Japan.
Gates had hoped to depart from Tokyo last week with a firm agreement in place
concerning the relocation of the US Marine Corps base on Okinawa, which in turn
would allow President Barack Obama's visit to Japan next month to proceed more
smoothly. Instead, Gates got nothing but a garbled message from Japan, which
benefits neither Japan nor the US.
Gates simply wanted Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama to say, "We have a
deal, and we will have it all finalized by the time President Obama touches
down in Tokyo next month. I promise, and there will be no surprises." Instead,
Gates got a healthy dose of "don't knows" as in, "We don't know when we will
make a decision, and we don't know what exactly that decision will be."
One retired senior Japanese military officer described the visit by Gates as
one that brought to the surface the many deep problems in the national security
agenda of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which came to power after
elections in August.
"For one thing, the Social Democratic Party [a partner in the ruling
coalition], which has insisted on a total pullout of US forces from Japan, has
been given far too much leverage because of the fragile nature of the base of
this coalition," this officer said. "Also, the decision by the DPJ to delay the
release [pending review of Japanese defense policy] of the so-called National
Defense Program Guideline, which was expected by the end of this year until
next year, shows how confused the DPJ is when it comes to identifying major
defense policy objectives. And it is not the result of the fact that the
government is so new."
At the same time, while the Gates visit may have involved a look at the reality
of the situation - something that the new government was not ready to deal with
at this time - it simply provided the DPJ government with another opportunity
to portray itself as a force for change without compelling Hatoyama and his
coalition to take a stand as well one way or the other.
"It is as if better solutions will result only if more time is allowed to
pass," said this retired officer. "This explains the uncertain status of the
Okinawa relocation plan. Hatoyama is simply avoiding the hard decision, and is
instead buying time so as to avoid upsetting the two opposing parties in this
instance, that is, the US government and the residents of Okinawa."
Hatoyama and the DPJ may have forgotten that there are two new governments
involved here and not one. The important role that Gates plays may also have
been forgotten. Gates in the only cabinet officer left standing from the prior
administration of George W Bush. He represents a desire for continuity and
competence in a US administration which promised sweeping changes, while the
reform-centric team of Hatoyama and Kitazawa has promised the people of Okinawa
that their wishes will be upheld and that Japan was not bound to the current
relocation scheme.
The relocation plan involves moving 9,000 US Marines from the southern island
of Okinawa to the US Pacific island of Guam, at a cost of US$10 billion -
two-thirds of which would be paid by Japan. It also requires the relocation of
a US air base from the Okinawa town of Futenma to a less densely populated part
of the island.
Gates knows all about battles with bureaucrats and politicians from both major
political parties in the US, so he knows what Hatoyama is confronting, but what
he cannot be so sure about is what sequence of events or underlying motives
actually triggered the outcome here, which compelled him to leave Japan with
all this unfinished business still in limbo last week.
After decades of living in close harmony with the US, Tokyo is starting to
drift. It may be deliberate or it may be quite by accident; either way, Japan
will have to realize that making the US nervous may lead to unpleasant
consequences for all parties.
US Navy Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff,
accompanied Gates. Mullen met for the first time with Japanese General Ryoichi
Oriki last week, and he described the US-Japan alliance as rock-solid. Mullen
also thanked Japan for its many contributions to peace around the world.
While the defense of Japan is the top priority, the alliance "has also provided
a basis for regional stability and for response", Mullen said. The future plans
for US forces in Japan are focused on "the military capability, the operational
flexibility [and] the adjustment to the continuing threats in the region", he
said.
Mullen addressed the dual threat posed by North Korea and China's military
build-up that seems targeted at US and Japanese naval forces.
"We all agree that a de-nuclearized North Korea is the outcome we all seek. We
can't accept anything else," he said. "I have also been concerned about
[China's] increased investment in their defense capability, their clear shift
of focus from a ground-centric force to a naval- and air- centric force that
seems to, now, push off-island, if you will, beyond the first island chain and
out to the second island chain."
At the same time, Mullen emphasized that the US appreciated the enormous value
of military-to-military relationships and exchanges with China. In fact, on
Monday, less than a week after leaving Tokyo, Gates was scheduled to welcome
General Xu Caihao, the vice chairman of the People's Liberation Army Central
Military Commission and China's second-highest ranking uniformed officer, to
Washington. Xu will be in the US from October 24 to October 31.
However, these exchanges by themselves are not enough to dispel the uncertainty
that surrounds the strategic intent of the buildup now underway.
"I have said for a long time that the peaceful rise of China, the economic
engine that China is - there's a lot of positive potential there," Mullen said.
"And so I would hope in the end that, in fact, their strategic intent is a
positive one of security for their people and their country and not one that
puts us into a position that could generate a conflict."
Mullen's comments were clearly aimed at a Japanese audience that stepped into
voting booths at Japan's national election in August and overwhelmingly
signaled its enthusiasm both for Hatoyama as a person and for the new DPJ
agenda.
Hatoyama has his hands full as he balances the Japanese electorate's
expectations with the security needs of his country.
In his first speech to the Diet (parliament) on Monday, Hatoyama spoke of the
importance of a ''close and equal [and multi-layered] Japan-US alliance" and he
portrayed this as the basis for peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
He perceived the alliance as one where both the US and Japan carried equal
weight when it came to shaping the role both Tokyo and Washington would play in
maintaining global peace and security.
Hatoyama hedged on the realignment of US forces in Japan. While he once again
acknowledged the "burden, pains and sorrows experienced by the people in
Okinawa [prefecture]" - as if to distance his government from the deal that
Japan and the US forged in 2006 - he never went as far as to declare the 2006
agreement dead in the water.
Much to the extreme disappointment of many Japanese military officials and
defense planners, what is dead is any hope that the US will export the F-22 to
Japan. This stealthy and sophisticated fighter jet has been high on Japan's
list for months, even while F-22 weather-related problems, and those related to
heavy rain in particular, made this aircraft seem not as invincible as it
appeared.
In turn, Gates got not so good news when it came to Japanese exports. Perhaps
this was another reason for that unhappy look on his face. After all, besides
the base controversy, Gates was in Tokyo to win Japanese approval for SM-3
Block 2A missile exports.
SM-3 Block 2A missiles are state-of-the-art anti-missile weapons that can be
deployed on ships. The US and Japan have been working together on this system
as well as other high-tech anti-submarine and other cutting-edge defense
hardware and software.
Gates, however, is once again confronting anti-US sentiment in the ruling
coalition with the Social Democratic Party clearly in the driver's seat on this
one. And any deal that would overturn the long-established Japanese ban on
weapons exports to nations - other than joint US-Japanese anti-missile systems
and components exported to the US - let alone any US-driven deal to this
effect, faces stiff resistance.
In other words, when Gates brought this issue up during his meeting with
Kitazawa, the Japanese defense minister showed that body language is something
he does know well, and he succeeded in not rolling his eyes as he politely
informed Gates that the request would be given due consideration.
Because all the indicators point to a done deal down the road, Kitazawa was
just being diplomatic, and perhaps pragmatic, just days before the latest round
of elections in Japan - two by-elections were held last weekend.
Some in the US who have watched the debate over the viability of Kinetic Energy
Interceptor (KEI) technology might find this to be a curious offshore twist to
the story of this missile defense program. In other words, whereas at one point
KEI was close to termination as a program in the US, it seems as if it was
alive and well - and well-funded - far away on the other side of the Pacific.
Japan's contribution in this instance involved the integrity of infrared ray
sensors, while the US was responsible for the KEI projectile, which is designed
to intentionally collide at very high speed with an incoming enemy ballistic
missile.
One export item that remained under the radar screen last week was Mitsubishi
Electric Corp's Proximity Link System (PLS), which will be used to guide
US-based Orbital Science's future Cygnus resupply mission spacecraft to the
International Space Station (ISS) during nine upcoming resupply missions for
the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), starting in 2011.
Just days before Gates arrived in Japan, Mitsubishi Electric announced the $66
million PLS deal, which involved technology originally developed for use on the
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV).
As unmanned PLS-equipped spacecraft approach the ISS, the PLS serves as an
automated guidance, rendezvous and docking mechanism. It establishes a link to
the Proximity Communication System, which was installed in the ISS with the
Japanese Kibo Experimental Module.
The successful operation and reliability of the PLS has no doubt caught the
attention of the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and
specifically the DARPA team working on the "Future, Fast, Flexible,
Fractionated, Free-Flying spacecraft" project known simply as F6.
F6 involves replacing today's large monolithic spacecraft with clusters or
groups of wirelessly linked elements, or nodes, which execute or replicate a
specific spacecraft function. You simply unite these nodes together in space,
and presto, you have a satellite.
PLS would greatly enhance recoupling to the extent that pairs of F6 nodes would
engage in refueling or other mated operations in space. However, because under
the existing Japanese export rules, a PLS system could not be exported to the
US for use by DARPA - again the "D" stands for "Defense" - DARPA will have to
look elsewhere or Japan will have to further revise and amend its export
regulations.
So, whereas SM-3 Block 2A missiles can be exported to the US under exemption
approved in 2004, perhaps PLS systems can only be exported the US on a limited
basis, and only to non-defense US customers at this time absent further
revisions or amendments.
Wonder who is smiling now.
Peter J Brown is a freelance writer from the US state of Maine.
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