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SAUDI BOMBSHELLS, Part 3
FBI chief defended Saudis
The pro-Saudi bias of former FBI director Louis Freeh during the investigation
of the 1996 Khobar Towers terror bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 United
States airmen shut down a probe in which Osama bin Laden was clearly
implicated. Had the case run its course, the US may not have been so brutally
blindsided by 9/11. - Gareth Porter (Jul
3,'09)
This is the final article in a three-part report.
Part 1:
Al-Qaeda excluded from suspect list
Part 2:
Why US officials blamed Iran
KEBABBLE
Turkey's women take back the
night
The murder of an Istanbul teenager, allegedly by the son of a rich businessman,
has provoked outrage in Turkey. It isn't just the nature of the crime - the
girl was dismembered and her head stuffed in a guitar case - that has led
feminists to rally and demand justice, they are also furious at the sexist
response of Istanbul's former police chief. - Fazile Zahir
(Jul 2,'09)
SAUDI BOMBSHELLS, Part 2
Why US officials blamed Iran
A story leaked by top United States and Saudi officials bolstered the general
belief in Washington that Iran masterminded the 1996 bombing of the Khobar
Towers in Saudi Arabia which killed 19 US airmen and wounded 372. The Saudis
had already been working to thwart the US investigation, and the new
disinformation obscured the trail to Osama bin Laden. - Gareth Porter
(Jul 2,'09)
This is the second article in a three-part report.
Part 1:
Al-Qaeda excluded from suspect list
Russia flits from Tehran to
Washington
Just when Russia's 14-year saga over building a nuclear plant for Iran appeared
at an end, Moscow has pointed to financial problems that will delay the
facility's scheduled opening next month. In doing this, Russia is sending a
message not so much to Tehran as to Washington, that it is considering a move
more into the US's orbit. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Jul 2,'09)
Iran awash with mistrust and
despair
The announcement of the Guardians Council on Monday to uphold
the landslide election victory of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has only
deepened the anger and frustration on the streets of Iran. Rights groups are
now concerned that those arrested over the past two weeks are under pressure -
possibly being tortured - to confess to cooperation with foreign governments.
(Jul 1,'09)
Marching out of step in the US
military
Refusal to deploy, search-and-avoid missions, absence without leave,
desertions, even suicides - these are expressions of dissent today in the
all-volunteer United States military that was rebuilt to purge itself of
Vietnam-style non-obedience. These seeds of a response to the quagmire of the
counter-insurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could grow into something far
larger. - Dahr Jamail (Jul 1,'09)
Turkey balances on shaky ground
Turkey is in a unique position, maintaining ties with Europe,
the United States, Iran, Israel and the Arab world. Taking advantage of these
friendships, the government has formulated a multi-pronged strategy to further
its regional interests while continuing to push for inclusion in the European
Union. The difficult part is to keep everyone happy. - Reza Akhlaghi
(Jul 1,'09)
Iraq celebrates a victory of sorts
Baghdad rocked with live concerts and fireworks displays Monday night as United
States troops completed their withdrawal from cities and towns across Iraq. The
Iraqi security forces will now have to look after their own people, even though
the future of the country remains strongly linked to the regional balance of
power between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United States. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 30,'09)
Obama faces a Persian rebuff
The Barack Obama administration badly fumbled after a
magnificent start in addressing the situation in Iran. The White House must now
deal with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the peak of his political
power, and President Mahmud Ahmadinejad - who will now negotiate from a
position of unprecedented strength. All things taken into account, there has
been a policy crisis in Washington. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jun 30,'09)
COMMENT
China doesn't want Iran unstable
Throughout the recent election turmoil in Iran, Beijing has said little and
stuck to its time-honored non-interventionist line. Political chaos in the
Middle East, and especially in Iran, is no good for oil-hungry China. In terms
of national interest, it's better to just keep quiet. - Jian Junbo
(Jun 30,'09)
The training wheels are off
Despite the recent uptick in violence, "significant hostile acts" throughout
Iraq have tapered off over the past two years. "This is the right time," the
United States says, for its troops to be handing security responsibilities to
the Iraqis. Yet the mood remains tense. (Jun 30,'09)
Leadership in the eye of the
beholder
The results of a global opinion poll on national leaders include some
surprising findings, such as support for Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
abroad. The usual biases are revealed, while the results also call into
question some Western media assumptions. Apparently, it is possible to be
repressive and popular at the same time. - Ian Williams
(Jun 30,'09)
 SPENGLER
Obama creates a
deadly power vacuum
President Barack Obama has not betrayed the interests of the United States to
any foreign power, but he has done the next worst thing, namely, to create a
void by withdrawing American power. By removing America as a referee, he will
provoke more violence than the United States ever did. A very, very dangerous
period is about to begin, and it could start with Iran.
(Jun 29,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Requiem for a revolution
In the end, the sound and fury of the "Tehran spring" led to neither reform nor
revolution. The army didn't support the people, and the merchants and workers
didn't go on strike. Still, to believe that Iran's national interest and the
aspirations of its disenchanted masses will be defended by the new dictatorship
of the mullahtariat is to completely miss the point. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 29,'09)
A classic revolutionary dilemma
The events of recent weeks in Iran can be viewed against the backdrop of a
regime that wants to return to its glory days of fervor and idealism. The
young, in particular, have been alienated, and demographically and in other
ways the present version of the Islamic Republic, which may have postponed its
date with destiny, is struggling against the tide of history. - Dilip Hiro
(Jun 29,'09)
US misunderstanding on Iran lingers
The newfound interest the United States has taken in Iran, sparked by the
Islamic Republic's election crisis, may be well-intentioned, but it is often
misplaced, misguided or completely detached from on-the-ground realities. The
most glaring knowledge deficit seems to come from neo-conservatives and their
right-wing allies who continue to clamor for regime change. - Ali Gharib
(Jun 26,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Two sides to violence
Recent polls reveal that nearly half the American public is unsure that Israel
is still the good guy in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The eroding support
for Israeli policies signals a growing appetite for a new, more even-handed
narrative. What must be understood is that the crucial conflict is not between
Israel and Palestine. It's between peace and violence. - Ira Chernus
(Jun 26,'09)
Hezbollah keeps its eye on the ball
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and one of his fiercest critics, Druze leader
Walid Jumblatt, have met for the first time in three years. It was 
not the conciliatory gesture many expected after a coalition of which Hezbollah
is a part failed to gain power in elections earlier this month. Nasrallah,
though, has his eye firmly on his objectives - protecting Hezbollah's weapons
and upholding Shi'ite rights. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 26,'09)
Iraq puts US presence to a vote
A series of bombings in Iraq this week has left at least 160 people dead just
days before the United States' promised withdrawal from Iraqi cities on June
30. Against this backdrop of rising violence, the government has decided to put
its security agreement with the US to a public referendum.
(Jun 25,'09)
COMMENT
Crunching the numbers
Just as the fight to overturn the results of the Iranian elections was
fading, it received a new lease of life via the publication of a British study
that casts doubt on the official results that saw President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
re-elected. The study appears to have its own problems, though. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi
(Jun 25,'09)
Iran-Pakistan pipeline not a done
deal
Muted fanfare over progress in the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline deal belies its
potentially huge appeal. Moscow sees a chance to strengthen its grip on
Europe's gas markets while Beijing is eyeing supplies shipped from the
Chinese-built Gwadar port in Pakistan. The silence could be due to doubts over
Tehran's dubious track record and political situation. - Robert M Cutler
(Jun 25,'09)
Miscalculations abound in Iran
The turmoil in Iran is a struggle between two factions of society. One faction
seeks a dramatic liberalization of society, the other advocates strict
adherence to religious principles. Yet both sides persist in portraying
themselves as being involved in a struggle by the people against a totalitarian
regime, a position that can only lead to further conflict. - Shahir Shahidsaless
(Jun 25,'09)
A new US envoy for Damascus
For the first time since 2005, the United States will send an ambassador to
Damascus, the latest in a string of moves to build new ties with Syria.
Washington says it recognizes the role Syria has to play in creating peace and
stability in the region due to its relations with Lebanon and Iran. Still,
prospects for Israeli-Syrian peace remain dim. (Jun
25,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Iran's streets are lost, but hope
returns
People power may have lost in the streets against a massive repression machine,
but Iranians are not afraid anymore. They believe another Iran is possible. All
hopes lie on a protracted, creative, subversive, underground and parallel
movement of civil disobedience, with strikes and mourning ceremonies held up
and down the country. The seeds of the next revolution have already been
planted. - Pepe Escobar (Jun 24,'09)
Obama on the road to Damascus
All signs point to a rapid thaw in relations between Syria and the United
States, with Damascus having much to offer the Middle East peace process should
President Barack Obama accept its help. If only Obama were to make the effort
to meet President Bashar al-Assad, real progress could be made. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 24,'09)
Israel stunned by Obama's tough
love
United States President Barack Obama's bold approach to the Middle East
attempts to level a playing field upon which Israel has always won, no matter
the contest or context. No wonder the new stance has rattled the Israeli
government, lit up the Jewish blogosphere and multiplied the posters calling
Obama "anti-Semitic". Still, a prolonged spat with Israel could prove costly. - Seema
Sirohi (Jun 23,'09)
Neo-cons blast Obama's line on Iran
Hawks and hardliners in Washington have excoriated President Barack Obama's
cautious line on Iran's election violence and North Korea's incessant
saber-rattling. Obama has even been accused of abetting the "rogue" regimes.
Now, a ship believed to be carrying weapons from North Korea to Myanmar may be
a "major test of his presidency". - Jim Lobe (Jun
23,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Bullish days for loyal ex-Bushies
For struggling job-hunters nationwide, it's former George W Bush administration
officials who offer a glimmer of hope in tough economic times. In but a few
short months, former Bushites have earned the best unemployment rate in
America, proving once again that Beltway insiders are rarely forced to tighten
a belt. - Nick Turse (Jun 22,'09)
'Color' revolution fizzles in Iran
Last week's power-play proved that Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei's capacity to command Iran's seemingly explosive political situation
was never really in doubt as it thwarted rival Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's
attempt to rally the clerical establishment. Meanwhile, United States President
Barack Obama played it cool, never going back on his pledge to directly engage
Tehran. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 22,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Meet Shah Ali Khamenei
Iranian protest leader Mir Hossein Mousavi was swept up in the human flow of
people power claiming that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's title is illegitimate,
that his credibility as a religious scholar was and remains shaky. All the
same, Khamenei's power remains complete. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 22,'09)
Beijing cautions US over Iran
The meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Iranian President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad in Russia on Tuesday once again shows Beijing has a clear idea
about the ebb and flow of Iranian politics. China anticipated the backlash
against Ahmadinejad's victory and is now warning Washington about letting the
genie of popular unrest get out of the bottle in a highly volatile region
waiting to explode. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun
19,'09)
Web tangled in Iranian struggle
As Iranians defy security forces to protest in the streets against the declared
result of their presidential election, technicians on both sides are struggling
to outwit each other in the battle for control of information in cyberspace.
(Jun 19,'09)
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, gaming and
gizmos.
US neo-cons sniff a chance
Right-wing attacks have put huge pressure on United States President Barack
Obama to take a more activist stance on Iran; these may lead to a domestic
political backlash against him. Yet neo-conservatives are happy with President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad as they see him justifying their calls for action against
Tehran over its nuclear program. (Jun 19,'09)
The IRGC shakes its iron fist
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, or Sepah, has benefited greatly from
the tenure of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad - spreading its influence throughout
the region and locking down the lucrative import and oil sectors. The last
thing the powerful, 125,000-member organization wanted was a change in national
leadership. If election protests continue, the Sepah will pounce. - Shahir
Shahidsaless (Jun 18,'09)
Pictures capture Iraq's anguish
In 2006, 12 women from across Iraq's religious divides went to Syria
for a photography project that planned to create unique pictorial diaries of
their country at war. They bravely went back - but not all survived. Since the
project, others have begun to help Iraqis come to terms with their lives as
victims of war. - Sakhr Al-Makhadhi (Jun
18,'09)
Mousavi states his case
Mir Hossein Mousavi, the reformist candidate challenging Iran's authorities on
the presidential elections, has lodged a two-page complaint with the powerful
Guardians Council, seeking an annulment of the result. On the basis of what he
has presented, he is unlikely to get his way. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jun 18,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Divine assessment vs people power
It was like a bossa nova song playing in an elevator on fire: while people
power was still driving events in Tehran, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad
showed up at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization proclaiming "the
international capitalist order is retreating" and that the age of empires has
ended. That's entirely possible - but maybe some other old orders are ending as
well. - Pepe Escobar (Jun 18,'09)
Khamenei rides a storm in a tea cup
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in his meeting with the principal opposition
candidate in the presidential election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, clearly spelled
out where Mousavi's loyalties ought to lie in the face of "provocative actions"
from Iran's enemies. And with re-elected President Mahmud Ahmadinejad finding
the time to attend a summit in Russia, the signs are that the color revolution
struggling to be born on the streets of Tehran has miscarried. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jun 17,'09)
Ahmadinejad tries to douse the
flames
Prudent moves are called for if Iran's re-elected leader intends to avert a
full-blown national crisis. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's call for a
probe of voter fraud allegations is a good first step, but President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad must still find innovative ways to appease the millions that voted
against him. Mir Hossein Mousavi as Ahmadinejad's foreign minister? Now, that's
a creative idea. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun
16,'09)
Iran's enemies are circling
The unrest following the controversial re-election of President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad places a brake on any initiatives by the United States to directly
engage Iran. For an emerging anti-Iranian militant grouping overseen by
al-Qaeda, the drama unfolding on the streets of Tehran provides the perfect
opportunity for increased activity. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jun 16,'09)
SPEAKING FREELY
A very Iranian coup
In the West, governments are owned and run by the banking and financial system.
In Iran, it's the Oil Ministry that controls the purse strings. Having finally
won control of the oil revenues from the faction of former president Hashemi
Rafsanjani, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad are in no mood to give it up. - Chris Cook
(Jun 16,'09)
Rafsanjani's gambit backfires
Behind the presidential elections was a simmering proxy war between Supreme
Leader 
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the grey cardinal of Iranian politics, former
premier Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. The crushing defeat of Mir Hossein Mousavi
could mean the end of the tumultuous career of "The Shark", a nickname
Rafsanjani acquired as a political predator in the early years of the Iranian
Revolution. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 15,'09)
A voice of reason silenced in Iraq
The assassination of heavyweight Sunni politician Harith al-Obeidi on Friday
dashes all hopes that real reconciliation is near at hand in Iraq. Iraqis
speculate either al-Qaeda or politicians fearful of Obeidi's anti-corruption
campaign could have arranged the murder, as he was not shy about blaming both
for the country's chaos. - Sami Moubayed (Jun
15,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
The meaning of the Tehran spring
Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has made his power play against challengers
Mir Hossein Mousavi and Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani. Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei fully supported him. As the aftermath unwinds, Mousavi and
Rafsanjani need an urgent counterpunch, and their only possible play - given
that no pacifying solution can be found within the institutional framework of
the Islamic Republic - is to go after Khamenei. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 15,'09)
SPENGLER
Hedgehogs and flamingos
in Tehran
The handling of election results exposes the weakness of Iran's strategic
position. That makes an Israeli strike against its nuclear facilities all the
more likely, not because Tehran has shown greater militancy, but because
it has committed the one sin that is never pardoned in the Middle East -
vulnerability. (Jun 15,'09)
A bigger struggle lies ahead
Whoever becomes the next president, the current institutional order -
especially the watchdog and oversight mechanisms employed to control 
politics - will struggle to handle the tensions and political conflicts that
lie ahead. The only viable solution is to go beyond factional politics and
encourage the establishment of genuine political parties in Iran. - Mahan Abedin
(Jun 12,'09)
Wary Syria warms to Obama's charm
After United States President Barack Obama's landmark speech in Cairo and
following the smooth Lebanese elections, all the basic ingredients are in place
for a Syria-US honeymoon. Upcoming discussions on the withdrawal of US troops
from Iraq have brought optimism, but Syrians are watching how Washington
handles Israel's role in the Golan Heights. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 12,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
The coming robot wars
Wired for War by P W Singer
An intriguing and ominous glimpse into the future of robotic warfare, this book
may have references to 2001: A Space Odyssey, Terminator movies
and Isaac Asimov - but it is no lightweight read. War will be waged remotely by
laser-toting air, sea, land and outer-space drones, with humans increasingly
taken out of the equation. Think HAL, think SkyNet, and be afraid. - David
Isenberg (Jun 12,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Poetic justice of a green
revolution
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad was never more dangerous then when lying about
inflation and unemployment in TV debates to lure the votes of Iran's poor. But
this may not come close to the green power he is up against. Psychedelic green.
The color of Islam, the color of presidential challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi
and, for many, the color of hope. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 11,'09)
The race for
cheerleader-in-chief
Although the outcome of the presidential election will still be taken as an
indicator of the prospects for United States President Barack Obama's
diplomatic outreach to Tehran, hawks in Washington have been hammering home the
point that it is really Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who calls the
shots.
(Jun 11,'09)
Al-Qaeda seeks to win over Sunnis
With Sunni fighters in Iraq's Awakening Councils battling Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki over government positions, al-Qaeda has offered to take them in,
provided they "repent" for their past tie-ups with the United States. This
tug-of-war reflects one of the most significant questions regarding post-war
Iraq - how to deal with the Sunnis? - Rafid Fadhil Ali
(Jun 11,'09)
Iran's elections a soft-power boon
No matter who wins the presidential election on Friday, the open and
dynamic election process ensures that the man in power will have a clear
mandate to deal with the rest of the world, particularly over Tehran's
contentious nuclear program. This reduces the maneuverability of the anti-Iran
coalition the United States has been trying to put together in the Middle East.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 10,'09)
Lebanon’s voters sideline US fears
United States President Barack Obama may not have come right out and said it,
but the victory of the Western-backed coalition in Lebanon's elections came as
a huge relief. The Hezbollah-led alliance which had expected to win now has to
pick up the pieces. (Jun 10,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Political paralysis over torture
Washington looks set to return to the era of torture outsourcing. If this is
the case, some formal inquiry needs to be convened to look into past abuses, or
in a few years, Americans will surely be confronted with another scandal from
some iconic dungeon in a far-away land. - Alfred W McCoy
(Jun 9,'09)
Hezbollah handed a stinging defeat
Early results from Sunday's Lebanese parliamentary elections show the
pro-Western March 14 coalition scoring a surprising victory over the
Hezbollah-led opposition. The tipping point came from a Christian vote united
behind Saad al-Hariri's March 14. With the Hezbollah bloc still holding 50
seats, self-made telecom billionaire Najib Mikati may be the only acceptable
choice as next prime minister. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 8,'09)
Obama moves the 'red line' on Iran
Washington appears to be setting the stage for talks with Tehran, despite the
newest International Atomic Energy Agency report that hardly gives Iran a clean
bill of health. United States President Barack Obama tread softly over the
nuclear issue in his Middle East tour last week, while his point man on Iran
was on a mission aimed at "drawing everyone in". Confidence-building has begun.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 8,'09)
Obama's hearts and minds trifecta
In the race for Muslim hearts and minds, United States President Barack Obama
has chosen his first two destinations well in Turkey and Egypt, and scored
points for eloquently balancing sensitivity with some frank truths. The next
likely stop is his childhood home, Indonesia, where he can point to a
successful example of moderate Islam being combined with liberal democracy. - Donald
K Emmerson (Jun 8,'09)
Hezbollah waits for its moment
With the help of Christian votes, the Hezbollah-led opposition is
expected in voting on Sunday to narrowly win enough seats for a majority in
Lebanon's parliament. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria and especially the United
States are looking on with more than their usual interest at the most
significant elections in the country's history. - Stephen Starr
(Jun 5,'09)
Obama lays his Likud trap
President Barack Obama's laidback rhetoric in Cairo hints at the end of an era
of almost unqualified support for Israel. By enticing Israeli hardliners to
come out explicitly with their renunciation of the peace process, Obama gives
the White House some serious leverage against US politicians who might
otherwise be pressured into derailing his moves. - Ian Williams
(Jun 5,'09)
The audacity of hope, from Cairo
When United States President Barack Obama gave his speech to the Muslim world
in Cairo on Thursday, ordinary Syrians went to coffee shops to listen - a
ritual usually reserved for Hezbollah broadcasts - and smiled at the
realization that something is changing in Washington. Particularly encouraging
were Obama's words on Palestine. But then, the only way to go in fractious
Arab-US relations is up. - Sami Moubayed (Jun
5,'09)
Obama can dream an AfPak dream
Prior to Thursday's speech from United States President Barack Obama to the
Muslim world, Middle Easterners were looking for fresh substance from the
youthful leader. The time has come for the US to consider promoting a gas
pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and further on to India and possibly to China.
This bold move could mean the difference between success and failure for the
US's AfPak strategy. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun
4,'09)
US steadfast against Hezbollah
The United States continues to play a zero-sum game with regard to Hezbollah,
even with the US-listed "terror" group poised to strengthen its position in
Lebanon at the weekend's parliamentary elections. This is despite the fact that
pro-Iran Hezbollah could help pave the way for a breakthrough in Washington's
ties with Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun
4,'09)
KEBABBLE
Turkey mourns a secular saint
The funeral of women's rights champion and avowed secularist Turkan Saylan, who
helped thousands of Turkey's most underprivileged girls access education, was
packed with mourners. Conspicuously absent were members of the Islamist ruling
party, who have been lambasted for ordering a demeaning investigation into
Saylan's charity while she was on her death bed. - Fazile Zahir
(Jun 4,'09)
Iran nuclear leaks 'linked to
Israel'
A report by the United States Senate last month provides new
evidence that Israel was the source of documents that have been used to accuse
Iran of hiding its nuclear weapons research. The leaked documents reinforce
Israel's claim that Tehran is on the brink of building nuclear weapons. Still,
as the report warns, "It is impossible to rule out an elaborate intelligence
ruse." - Gareth Porter (Jun 4,'09)
Iran wages lonely war on terror
Tehran is probing deeper into last week's deadly mosque bombing in Zahedan, but
has yet to point any fingers at the West. Iran can't raise an international
scandal with US President Barack Obama set to address the Muslim world on
Thursday, and its June 12 national election so delicately poised. Looking
further, Tehran realizes rhetorical outbursts against Washington will only play
into Israeli hands. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun
3,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
The shadow war in Balochistan
With or without using Jundallah for its own Iran-destabilizing agenda,
Washington's "other" war is about to hit Balochistan in Pakistan full speed
ahead. By mid-summer, the US's Afghan surge in troops will be in position. A
new American mega-base in Helmand province's "desert of death" will be
operational. Assassination teams, drone attacks and Hellfire missiles will boil
this tense tri-border area. Shadowplay rules. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 3,'09)
Obama's Iran overture derailed
Iran's Supreme Leader responded to President Barack Obama's
greeting for the Iranian New Year by saying he'd like to see action rather than
words from the United States. Meanwhile, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is using
Iran's nuclear nationalism to push his moderate challengers to the political
margins. There are indications that behind Obama's olive branch, trouble is
brewing. - Shahir Shahidsaless (Jun 2,'09)
Hezbollah spices up Israel-Iran mix
Hezbollah, which is widely favored to win parliamentary elections in Lebanon on
June 7, has made it clear that should this happen, it will seek even closer
ties with Iran, to the extent of military assistance. Israel has upped the ante
by reportedly focusing on covert activities to "disrupt Iran's nuclear
program", as well as supporting the Sunni Islamist group Jundallah against
Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 2,'09)
Wrong venue for Obama's Muslim
speech
By addressing the "Islamic world" from Cairo, US President
Barack Obama lends credibility to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and other
advocates of political Islam who demand that Muslims be addressed globally and
on religious terms. For an American president to validate such an aspiration is
madness, and also undermines Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on his home
ground. There is a way to fix the situation: move the venue to New Delhi. - Spengler
(Jun 1,'09)
The myth of a 'Muslim world'
If President Barack Obama continues to approach Arabs and
Muslims as a single collective ready to be manipulated with bogus promises,
fancy rhetoric and impressive body language, then he will surely be
disappointed. Highly politicized, skeptical and fed-up societies refuse to be
reduced to a mere percentage in some opinion poll that can be swayed when
Washington determines the time and place. - Ramzy Baroud
(Jun 1,'09)
Doubts over Maliki's anti-graft
crusade
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the arrest of his trade minister at
the weekend as part of an anti-corruption campaign that the government says
will take nearly 1,000 officials to task over rampant graft levels. But some
Iraqis say the drive is not objective and mostly aimed at attracting voters
ahead of next year's elections. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 1,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Is Halliburton forgiven and
forgotten?
United States energy services corporation Halliburton and its former subsidiary
KBR, both among the great winners in the George W Bush/Pentagon privatization
sweepstakes, have largely fallen off the American radar screen. The two
companies have managed to cleanse themselves of the bad publicity and a laundry
list of charges from the Bush years. - Pratap Chatterjee
(Jun 1,'09)
Obama steps into diplomatic
minefield
United States President Barack Obama has to tread carefully on
his visits to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, or his favorable image in the Middle East
could be tainted for good. If he overstates his case over the Iran nuclear
issue or support for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, the trip could backfire
and cause unwanted backlashes in Israel and Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(May 29,'09)
Confusion on the road to Damascus
An award-winning play intended to make fun of Western stereotypes toward the
Arab world didn't get many laughs when it was performed in Syria. Though the
Scottish playwright's portrayal of Damascus shows a deep knowledge of the city,
some took offense. Other Syrians say the haters just didn't get the point. - Sakhr
Al-Makhadhi (May 29,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Pipelineistan goes Iran-Pak
A deal was finally signed this week in Tehran by which Iran will sell gas from
its South Pars mega-fields to Pakistan by way of the 2,100-kilometer, US$7.5
billion Iran-Pakistan pipeline. For the moment, Iran, Pakistan, China and
Russia win. Washington and NATO lose, not to mention Afghanistan. But will
Balochistan province also win? If not, all hell will break loose, creating an
even greater, regional, ball of fire. - Pepe Escobar
(May 28,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
A flawed study of 'rogue' Iran
The Secret War with Iran by Ronen Bergman
Though readers are often cautioned not to judge a book by its cover, in this
case the politically charged sub-title (Control of a 'Rogue' State) defines the
contents perfectly. Instead of providing a serious look at the covert
intelligence wars between Iran and the West, the author attempts to frame it as
a "terrorist" state bent on undermining the international system. - Mahan Abedin
(May 28,'09)
Mousavi makes a comeback
Despite spending recent years on the political sidelines, former prime minister
Mir Hossein Mousavi is expected to give President Mahmud 
Ahmadinejad a run for his money in next month's elections. But if Mousavi is
elected, he'll need to ensure reform at home doesn't accompany a softened
foreign policy, especially where the United States is concerned. -Mahan Abedin
(May 28,'09)
INTERVIEW
The general speaks
General David Petraeus, 
the chief of United States Central Command, addresses head-on a wide range of
sensitive issues, from "enhanced interrogation techniques" to Afghan civilian
casualties. Some of his comments, though, contradict earlier reports, such as
his thoughts on US troop withdrawal from Iraq. (May
27,'09)
Iran courts the US's allies
The weekend's summit between Iran and United States-backed Pakistan and
Afghanistan has given Tehran an opportunity to deepen ties for the fight
against terrorism and narcotics, as well as to strengthen its position ahead of
proposed direct dialogue with the US. By presenting Iran as a regional power,
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad also boosts his chances of re-election in June. - Kaveh
L Afrasiabi (May 26,'09)
Finger-pointing riles Hezbollah
A recent report that claims Hezbollah is to blame for the 2005 murder of former
Lebanese prime minister Rafik al-Hariri is filled with unlikely claims - and no
evidence to back them up. That Hezbollah was linked to the case two weeks ahead
of parliamentary elections sets off alarm bells. - Sami Moubayed
(May 26,'09)
Pakistan, Iran sign gas pipeline
deal
Pakistan and Iran have reached agreement on a gas pipeline between the two
countries, concluding 14 years of on-off talks under the shadow of US
opposition. One-time likely partner India played no part in the deal, leaving
China with a likely future role. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider
(May 26,'09)
Turkey plays the good neighbor
The distinctive position that Turkey now occupies in world affairs is, most
Turkish commentators 
agree, largely a result of the strategic thought of Foreign Minister Dr Ahmet
Davutoglu. The 50-year-old political scientist also ran Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan's shuttle diplomacy between Israel and Syria and believes firmly
that Turkey should have "zero problems with its neighbors".
(May 22,'09)
Israel plays on Obama's Iran policy
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is determined to negotiate with the United
States, but he wants to do so from a position of strength. Israel's pressure on
Washington to link the Palestinian issue to Iran's nuclear program makes this
very difficult. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May
21,'09)
Torture memos and historical
amnesia
As long as Americans think of themselves as "exceptional" in history, the
larger pattern of imperial crimes committed doesn't tend to penetrate and the
revelation of certain specific grim acts - whether the My Lai massacre in the
Vietnam years or the torture memos of today, often backfire, serving only to
efface terrible crimes. - Noam Chomsky (May
20,'09)
KEBABBLE
Massacre leaves Turkey looking
for answers
The killing of 44 people at a Kurdish wedding party in a small village in
southeastern Turkey has raised more questions than answers. Some say it was
simply a family feud that reflects ancient traditions of honor killings, while
others blame a government program to arm anti-Kurdish militias. - Fazile Zahir
(May 19,'09)
Netanyahu can't bear to say
'two-state'
United States President Barack Obama, speaking after a highly
anticipated White House meeting, repeatedly stressed a two-state solution to
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On his part, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu never uttered the phrase or alluded to the possibility, making it
clear the priority of his government is still preventing Iran from obtaining
nuclear weapons. - Jim Lobe (May 19,'09)
Maliki breaks with Shi'ite
coalition
Iraq's United Iraqi Alliance, which has controlled parliament since 2005, is
falling apart. The worst blow to the all-Shi'ite coalition comes from Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who wants to reposition his Da'wa Party as
non-sectarian while allying with powerful local leaders - including rising star
Muqtada al-Sadr. - Sami Moubayed (May 18,'09)
SPENGLER
Dolphinplasty as a principle
of governance
Setting out the parameters of a market, a bank, a state or a marriage does not
mean they have any more claim on reality than, say, a carefully defined
phoenix. Years of experience, natural capacity and sense of sanctity give
existence to such things. Absent these, the substitutes for reality will blow
up in our face. (May 18,'09)
Limits to the Saudis'
jihadi crackdown
Riyadh's ability to curb the capabilities of Islamist rebels at home bodes well
for its blossoming international role in counter-jihadi efforts. However, huge
differences in economic conditions, religious hierarchy and tribal structures
will make it difficult to replicate the success in extremist hot spots like
Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan. (May 15,'09)
Iran to US: 'It's a culture thing'
From pornography to fashion, Tehran is fighting a losing battle as it struggles
to keep American culture out of Iranian society. This is one of the main
reasons Tehran is not responding to the US's overtures. Though unspoken, the
Islamic Republic is afraid that Washington will attempt to "soft topple" the
regime through cultural aggression. - Shahir Shahidsaless
(May 14,'09)
Pipelineistan goes Af-Pak
From the "Las Vegas of Central Asia" to the backlands of Taliban-controlled
Afghanistan and Pakistan to Beijing, Moscow and Washington, the politics of
"blue gold" (natural gas) and great-power politics are playing out in a lethal
liquid war. -Pepe Escobar (May 13,'09)
SPEAKING FREELY
'Hitler' up for re-election
If Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is another 'Hitler', as he is regularly
cast, then there would be no need for him to run for re-election - his rivals
would have already been shot. And even if he were a "Hitler", why isn't the
United States supporting his reformist opponents? - William Wedin
(May 13,'09)
Crisis of confidence in US-Israel
ties
Ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Washington,
relations between the two countries are at an uncharacteristic low. The bottom
line, though, is that despite talk of the US getting tough, President Barack
Obama is in no position to wield the big stick. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(May 13,'09)
Sanctions renewed, but Syria
understands
The renewal of United States sanctions on Syria comes as no surprise to
Damascus, which realizes that undoing former president George W Bush's
handiwork is no easy feat. Syria is instead setting its sights on the Middle
East peace process, though it stresses the return of the Golan Heights by
Israel remains non-negotiable. - Sami Moubayed
(May 12,'09)
A new fight over the Iran 'threat'
United States President Barack Obama has made good on his promise to pay more
attention to the troubles in Afghanistan, and now increasingly in Pakistan.
Powerful pro-Israel factions inside and outside the US government are fighting
hard to redirect attention to where they believe it belongs - on Iran and its
nuclear program. - Jim Lobe and Daniel Luban
(May 12,'09)
UN suffers disarmament depression
United States President Barack Obama has signaled his commitment to a
nuclear-free world, but this week's United Nations conference on
non-proliferation showed that global consensus on the issue remains elusive.
The problem is rooted in the conflicting interpretation of "common security" in
a world divided between the nuclear haves and nuclear have-nots. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (May 11,'09)
Iraq on brink of third great
mistake
If Iraq's leaders treat Sunni groups that are being infiltrated by al-Qaeda as
potential enemies, it would be one of the most disastrous decisions made since
2003 - it would push the Sunni community back down the path of resistance and
insurgency. - W Andrew Terrill (May 7,'09)
KEBABBLE
Lifestyles of Turkey's rich and
infamous
One of Turkey's wealthiest families is embroiled in a court case worthy of a
high-class soap opera, with allegations the son drugged the mother to fool her
into signing away her share of the family fortune. Although the scene of the
drama is their picturesque summer mansion on the banks of the Bosphorous, it
seems the outcome of this feud will be anything but pretty. - Fazile Zahir
(May 6,'09)
Muqtada comes in from the cold
The Western perception of Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is of a
firebrand militant attached to strings pulled in Iran. The face Muqtada
presented on a visit to Turkey at the weekend - his first public appearance in
nearly two years - told a very different story, one of a "cultural, economic
and political rebellion", no guns, and of solidarity with Ankara on the issue
of Kurds. - Sami Moubayed (May 6,'09)
Hamas feels the heat from Syria
Damascus is pushing hard to reinvent itself, taking major steps to prove its
willingness to be a leading powerbroker in the region and leave its reputation
as a sponsor of terrorism behind. In a move that would have dramatic
implications in the region, Hamas' political leadership could be asked to hit
the road. - Special Correspondent (May 6,'09)
Why suicide bombers are back in
Iraq
In the past two months, there have been 25 suicide bombings in Iraq, bringing
the seemingly forgotten war back into the media spotlight. The United States
may be downplaying the violence as a "last gasp" by al-Qaeda, but the reality
is that insurgents are responding to Washington's unclear terms of withdrawal.
(May 6,'09)
Iran takes a stand over Kurds
Iran's hot pursuit of Kurdish rebels from Iraq, and the subsequent bombing of
border villages, has sent a signal to the semi-autonomous Kurdish Regional
Administration about Tehran's unhappiness with Kurdish inflexibility in
post-occupation Iraq. Looming over the recent conflict is how to settle Kirkuk,
an oil-rich area where the Kurds have vowed to retain control. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (May 5,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
Predicting the death of Islam
The Crisis of Islamic Civilization by Ali A Allawi
The differences between Islam and the Judeo-Christian West run far deeper
than the political surface, the author argues, and they begin with a radically
different view of the individual, or more precisely, the view that the
individual human being really does not exist to begin with. - Spengler
(May 4,'09)
Britain bruised by its Basra
adventure
With a somber military ceremony in Basra, Britain bade farewell to its
six-year, controversy filled stint in Iraq. Its legacy is still unfolding, but
the country's involvement is by far and away its most problematic foreign
adventure since the Suez crisis of 1956, and the costs are still being counted
both at home and in Basra. - Ronan Thomas (May
4,'09)
A shot in the arm for Hezbollah
Fireworks and celebratory gunfire crackled through Beirut's streets after the
release this week of four Lebanese generals arrested in 2005 over former prime
minister Rafik al-Hariri's assassination, with Hezbollah expected to benefit
from the dramatic turn of events at June's elections. - Sami Moubayed
(May 1,'09)
Now for the next 100 days ...
President Barack Obama has scored well on foreign policy in his first 100 days,
breathing new life into a number of United States initiatives. All this will
count for nothing if Pakistan and Afghanistan continue on their downward
spiral, and if he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fall out at
their meeting this month. - Jim Lobe
(May 1,'09)
US hides behind Iran sanctions
threat
Proposed legislation introduced into the United States Senate this week would
place "crippling sanctions" on Iran by targeting its energy imports. Tehran has
reacted angrily, placing a question mark over any further moves towards US-Iran
dialogue. It could be that this was precisely Washington's intention. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (May 1,'09)
Obama may need Ahmadinejad after
all
Believing that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenai is running the show in
Iran, Washington has chosen to ignore President Mahmud Ahmadinejad - a move
that hasn't gone over well with the hardliner. But if he emerges victorious in
the June elections, the US might have to change its tune. - Shahir Shahidsaless
(Apr 30,'09)
Farewell, the American Century
For Americans to see themselves as they really are and move forward in the
world, they have to say goodbye to the "American Century". It was, after all,
never more than an array of illusions in which Americans took more credit than
they deserved for triumphs and not nearly enough for follies and crimes
committed. - Andrew J Bacevich (Apr 30,'09)
Hawks soften rhetoric on Iran
Against the backdrop of US President Barack Obama's moves to engage Tehran, a
group of neo-conservative hawks gathered to discuss what they consider
provocative actions by Iran. But in a departure from the George W Bush era,
they are no longer talking tough, even recognizing the futility of invasions
and sanctions. (Apr 29,'09)
Monsters vs aliens
Some parallels between the Somali pirates and their Barbary predecessors are
striking, but notions of them forming a dynamic evil duo with the forces of
al-Qaeda to bring down the United States are pure fantasy. Going to war with
them is likely to have as much success as the last US venture in Somalia, and
media hysteria painting them as AK-47-toting, narcotic-chewing aliens also
won't help. - John Feffer (Apr 28,'09)
The good, and bad, news on
contractors
As the US military draws down its presence in Iraq, regular troops at bases and
checkpoints will increasingly be replaced with private security contractors. A
recent audit found most of the "officers" responsible for managing and
monitoring these contractors are woefully inexperienced, while at a cost
approaching US$1 billion the process is also susceptible to fraud, waste and
abuse. - David Isenberg (Apr 28,'09)
A new order emerges in Lebanon
Calls for engagement with Hezbollah in Lebanon are increasing in Washington,
Britain is opening dialogue with non-state players and the Syrians are back in
the international arena. Steadily, the Middle East leftovers of the George W
Bush era are being eroded, and people like Lebanese warlord Walid Jumblatt are
preparing for the new alignments. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 28,'09)
US and Iran stuck at pre-dialogue
Despite strong misgivings, many Iranian politicians still hope
that a meaningful breakthrough in relations with the United States is possible,
based on "common interests". A major hurdle, though, remains the perception of
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad as a mere "noisemaker" without clout in foreign
policy. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 28,'09)
White House miscalculations linger
On the surface, the administration of United States President Barack Obama
appears keen to engage Iran, yet it still clings to the idea that crippling
economic measures or military strikes will force Tehran to reverse its nuclear
program. This simply won't work. - Shahir Shahidsaless
(Apr 27,'09)
US promotes Iran in energy market
Washington, under a new energy czar, is leaving no option unexplored. This
includes touting the benefits of Iranian involvement in a 3,300 kilometer-long
pipeline from the Caspian via Turkey to Austria that would reduce the European
Union's growing dependence on Russian energy. Evidently, Iran anticipated the
inevitability of such a shift in US thinking. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Apr 27,'09)
Syria reaches out to 'friend' Iraq
This week's landmark visit to Iraq by Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Naji Otari
is a welcome sign of repaired relations between Damascus and Baghdad that have
been icy since the United States invasion of 2003. Iraqis see the visit as an
outstretched hand from the greater Arab family, while Syrians are trying to
avoid being next door to another neighbor armed to the teeth and living in
lawlessness. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 23,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Torture whitewash from The Dark
Side
The drama of torture memos released last week is shaping up as a case of
American exceptionalism one cannot believe in. Without accepting full
responsibility for torture - and illegal, pre-emptive wars - there can be no
catharsis in America. President Barack Obama is smart enough to know that if he
looks the other way, this whole mess could come back to haunt, and even
destroy, his presidency. - Pepe Escobar (Apr
23,'09)
The strange case of Roxana Saberi
The possibility that American-Iranian reporter Roxana Saberi was an unwitting
accomplice in the Western drive for intelligence cannot be ruled out. If this
is the case, the real culprits are the information-mongering governments that
are pressing Iran with sanctions without any evidence that Tehran is on the
march toward nuclear weapons. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Apr 22,'09)
A short step in the march to
justice
Justice has often been trumped by politics on the question of culpability of
the United States military in overseas wars. The release of details of harsh
interrogation methods employed by US Central Intelligence Agency operatives
during the "war on terror" is a step towards correcting this, even if specific
people won't be prosecuted. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Apr 21,'09)
Jihadis target the high seas
The headline-hogging pirates operating in the Gulf of Aden and in the Indian
Ocean are a part of a wider chess game - a regional jihadi apparatus determined
to draw Western forces into its sphere of operations, either on land or at sea.
- Walid Phares (Apr 21,'09)
KEBABBLE
Vegetables and sexism in cinema
New "worst movie" awards in Turkey take aim at
locally produced films that portray sexism, with even Cannes prizewinners
receiving ire for their "patriarchal perspective and male gaze". The Golden
Okras - named after the pointed vegetable - are also a sign of the rebirth of
the nation's film industry. - Fazile Zahir (Apr
21,'09)
Spy versus spy in Iran, North Korea
The conviction in Iran of American freelance journalist Roxana Saberi on
charges of spying for the United S
tates and the detention in North Korea of two female US broadcast journalists
goes to the larger issue of the nuclear programs of Tehran and Pyongyang - and
their cooperation with each other. The three women could well become pawns in
this greater game, but in the case of the captives in the North, there are
chilling differences. - Donald Kirk (Apr
20,'09)
Obama's strategy and the summits
In United States President Barack Obama's first major international foray, he
gave Europe a pass because internally it cannot find a common position and its
heavyweights are bound by their relationship with Russia. The key to the trip
will be whether Obama can draw some of the venom out of the Islamic world by
aligning with the largest economy among Muslim states, Turkey. - George Friedman
(Apr 20,'09)
Iraq gets a new speaker
After months of wrangling, Sunni politician Iyad Samaraii has been elected as
speaker of Iraq's parliament. In theory, his position carries with it
considerable power, but his real value will be in lending credence to Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki's planned all-out offensive against the Sunni-packed
Awakening Councils. - Sami Moubayed (Apr
20,'09)
Iran given little to cheer
Iran this week celebrated a National Day of Nuclear Technology. On the
international stage, though, Tehran has little to cheer. The promising noises
United States President Barack Obama had made about a new beginning on dealing
with Iran's nuclear program have come to nothing, and the Iranians are not
going to budge over their insistence on the right to enrich uranium. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Apr 17,'09)
Requiem for the 'war on terror'
It was undoubtedly one of the least sonorous acronyms in the
United States' bureaucratic history - GWOT for George W Bush's "global war on
terror" - and suddenly, thanks to the Barack Obama administration, it's gone.
It has been replaced by a hardly less sonorous one, OCO, standing for the
blandly Orwellian "Overseas Contingency Operation", and it carries with it
great significance. - Ira Chernus (Apr
16,'09)
The Golan Heights revisited
The stillness of the idyll that is the Golan Heights, and the
sheer age of the bullet holes  and
rubbled buildings, makes one feel this is a much more serene dispute than in
nearby Gaza. Looks, however, can be deceptive, as proven by the families of
Syrians at the site every weekend to picnic and recount tales of their lost
homeland. - Santwana Bhattacharya (Apr
15,'09)
Egypt has Hezbollah in its sights
Egypt waited five months before announcing the arrest of 49 people accused of
being members of Hezbollah and of planning sabotage attacks on Egyptian
territory. The timing is important, and a strong message to Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah, as well as to Iran. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 14,'09)
US grapples with Israeli threats
Israel's tough words about a possible strike on Iran over its nuclear program
have set off intense debate in the Barack Obama administration on whether the
threats should be used to gain leverage in future negotiations with Tehran. - Gareth
Porter and Jim Lobe (Apr 14,'09)
Don't flash the yellow light
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's warnings about a possible attack on
Iran if the Barack Obama administration does not quickly find a way to shut
down Tehran's nuclear program can be viewed as manufactured hysteria, and not
so much a reflection of genuine Israeli fears. This could be a big mistake. - Roane
Carey (Apr 14,'09)
Obama may cede Iran's nuclear rights
United States President Barack Obama plans to ease the standoff on Iran's
nuclear program - and stage a US comeback in Central Asia - by offering Tehran
access to a global nuclear fuel bank in Kazakhstan. Tehran has welcomed the
strategy, and the likely involvement of Japan serves up other geopolitical
dimensions favorable to Washington. Moscow is less enthusiastic. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Apr 9,'09)
COMMENT
A town hall meeting and a mosque
United States President Barack Obama's choice to visit Turkey before Israel
shows his basic understanding that foreign policy is about dealing with
foreigners, not domestic lobbies. In turn, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan
was deft at exploiting US leverage to tackle domestic divergence. The new
Israeli government should be paying careful attention. - Ian Williams
(Apr 9,'09)
Sands shift in Iranian elections
The shock exit of Iran's former reformist president Mohammad Khatami from
Iran's upcoming presidential vote seemed to assure President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad's re-election. After all, Ahmadinejad has outsmarted America on
multiple fronts and expanded Tehran's influence across the region. But by
standing aside for a more popular reformist with flawless revolutionary
credentials, Khatami has actually put the outcome in doubt. - Shahir
Shahidsaless (Apr 9,'09)
The US puts Turkey on center stage
The choice of Turkey for United States President Barack Obama's first visit to
a Muslim-majority country suggests that Washington is counting on Ankara to
help rebuild America's reputation in the Muslim world. But if Washington really
wants this critical ally - and its strategic location - the US must tread
carefully on certain issues, none more so than the question of Armenia. - Patrick
Wrigley (Apr 8,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
The president makes a victory lap
President Obama's arrival in Baghdad for a gated-community photo op - without
so much as a glimpse of real-life, messy, dangerous Red Zone Baghdad - made it
shockingly clear that Obama, for all his charisma, is still the president of an
occupying power. He says his presence can help resolve issues. His rhetorical
change is more than welcome. But actions do speak louder than words. - Pepe
Escobar (Apr 8,'09)
What Obama didn't see in Iraq
While United States President Barack Obama's surprise visit
hogged the headlines, more important news was circling Baghdad's streets. A
reduced sentence for a shoe-thrower sparked jubilation, while moves to bring
exiled Ba'athists into the political fold finally hold promise. A bigger
problem for the Nuri al-Maliki government lies in the Awakening Councils, as
his attempts to quash them may have triggered Monday's six deadly car bombs. - Sami
Moubayed (Apr 8,'09)
Gates' budget shakes up the
Pentagon
The latest military budget presented by US Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates signals a major shift in funding for the armed forces,
with a new focus on counter-insurgency. Some fear this will backfire should
conflict erupt with a large nation, while the defense industry is piqued at
cuts in weapons programs. (Apr 7,'09)
Obama twists and turns on Iran
United States President Barack Obama, by repeatedly referring to Iran in his
major foreign policy speeches, such as in Prague and in the Turkish parliament,
has clearly prioritized the country. The problem is the mixed messages he sends
out, which will do nothing to assure Tehran that a "new beginning" is any
closer. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 7,'09)
KEBABBLE
In Turkey, a political prodigy
steps aside
Suleyman Soylu, once the brightest hope of Turkey's right-wing Democratic
Party, has 
announced he will step down as party leader after a disastrous showing in local
elections. It's an inauspicious exit for the one-time political wunderkind, yet
the man who wanted to "build a new Turkey" remains gracious in defeat. - Fazile
Zahir (Apr 7,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
Dialogue and debate in the Islamic
Republic
Iran's Intellectual Revolution by Mehran Kamrava
Despite its shortcomings, such as failing to fully display the complex,
self-reforming, intellectual dynamism of the Islamic Republic, this is a highly
informative book that sheds much light on the hot furnace of intellectual
discursive debates in today's Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Apr 3,'09)
Iran looks through Obama's
poker face
While much has been made about the "new season of diplomacy" between Tehran and
Washington, many in Iran point to crippling United States-backed sanctions and
call any reported thaw in relations hugely premature. The US wants it both ways
- to gang up on Iran at the United Nations, while seeking its help in resolving
increasingly dangerous regional issues, starting with Afghanistan. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Apr 2,'09)
INTERVIEW
A lost vision for US intelligence
Had Charles Freeman's role as chair of the United States' National Intelligence
Council not been fatally sabotaged by the "gang of Likudniks", he would have
mended the public's 
tattered faith in the US intelligence community by taking a real-world approach
that omitted sycophancy and political correctness, Freeman tells Jim Lobe.
Emerging from the sorry episode, Freeman feels one positive is that the Israel
lobby may have overexposed itself. (Apr 2,'09)
US sinks deeper into Sunni-Shi'ite
struggle
A flare-up of sectarian violence after the arrest of a key leader of Iraq's
Sunni Awakening movement has underscored United States involvement in the
long-term power struggle between the Shi'ite-dominated government and
disenfranchised Sunnis. It has also prompted threats by Sunni militia
commanders to go back to armed resistance. - Gareth Porter
(Apr 2,'09)
Israel rushes to India's defense
Israel has overtaken Russia to become India's number one
defense supplier, signing a US$1.4 billion deal for an anti-missile air defense
system. The sale was made right before elections were called, allowing the
Congress-led government in Delhi to show voters that it doesn't take security
lightly. - Siddharth Srivastava (Apr 1,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Aboard the
imperial star ship Ameriprise
Gene Roddenberry's Star Trek may have first entered our homes more than
four decades ago, but its depictions of American optimism and cultural smugness
remain. Official American "expeditionary forces" continue to travel the "final
frontiers" of our own planet, armed to the teeth with our versions of phasers
and photon torpedoes. - William Astore (Apr
1,'09)
Israel muddies US-Iran momentum
The fresh start in relations promised to Iran by US President Barack Obama got
off to a strong start last week when a US diplomat shook hands with an Iranian
counterpart in Moscow. The stage is now set for Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton's first potential detente with Iranian officials at this week's
UN-backed conference on Afghanistan. It's a fragile hope, and sabre-rattling
from Israel could torpedo the progress. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 31,'09)
SPENGLER
The gods are stupid
We flatter ourselves that our idols are clever because they are not made out of
wood, but silicon, for example, the universally worshiped god "Google", the new
omniscient deity whose Mercury now is called "Gmail". The trouble is that
Google is stupid for taking everything literally. Literal language is a
failure, and that is why mankind communicates through metaphor. Try telling
jokes to your computer, and see if it laughs. (Mar
30,'09)
The Arab family divided
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's boycott of the latest Arab
summit has all but stymied hopes of it healing bitter inter-Arab rifts that
have smoldered since the Gaza conflict. At the heart of Mubarak's snub is
historic rival Iran, which Cairo views as a threat to its own and the wider
Arab world's stability. Meanwhile, Sudan's fugitive president is planning a
snub of his own. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 30,'09)
When a withdrawal is not a
withdrawal
United States President Barack Obama's decision to go along with the military
proposal for a "transition force" of 35,000 to 50,000 troops in Iraq represents
a complete abandonment of his own original policy of combat troop withdrawal
and an acceptance of what the military wanted all along - the continued
presence of several combat brigades well beyond mid-2010. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 26,'09)
Iraq serves Turkey a rare treat
In the first visit by a Turkish president to Iraq in 33 years,
Abdullah Gul was made an unexpected offer by his hosts: Iraqi Kurdistan-based
rebels would lay down their arms - thereby ending a state of war with Turkey
that has lasted for 30 years - in exchange for a pardon for all Kurds who have
fought the Ankara government. The Iraqis might not be able to deliver on their
promise, but the clear message is that they - and their US backers - can no
longer ignore Turkey's importance in the region. - Sami Moubayed
(Mar 26,'09)
Liquid war: Welcome to
Pipelineistan
The new Silk Road of energy sees Washington, Beijing, Moscow and Tehran fight
for control of Caspian oil lines on a global energy battlefield on which the
fate of humankind could well be settled. Pepe Escobar enters the Space
Odyssey-style map room of Russian energy giant Gazprom, spends a rainy
"night" in Georgia, and discovers the thrill of following energy around the
"arc of instability". (Mar 25,'09)
Europe out of step with US over
Iran
United States President Barack Obama has offered a "new beginning" in relations
with Iran through honest engagement and mutual respect. Such overtures are at
odds with the European Union's incoherent Tehran strategy, highlighted by
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's recent threat-filled speech. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Mar 25,'09)
Tight race for atomic agency's hot seat
Mohamed ElBaradei's 12-year run as director of the International Atomic Energy
Agency is coming to an end, with two candidates battling for the post. Japan's
Yukiya Amano is said to be less political than South African Abdul Samad Minty,
who would be more willing to help mediate nuclear disputes. Washington prefers
the former. - Todd Crowell (Mar 24,'09)
COMMENT
Why the US can't bully Iran
After 30 years of hostility, a massive wall of mistrust separates the
governments of Iran and the United States. The obstacle will remain as long as
Washington persists in speaking to Iran in a condescending manner and continues
to wave threats of sanctions. Strong talk will only plant seeds of resistance,
while sanctions, Iranians believe, will never threaten the nation's existence.
- Shahir Shahidsaless (Mar 24,'09)
KEBABBLE
The secret of Black Sea
sexagenarians
It was always thought people lived longer on 
Turkey's mountainous Black Sea coast, and now a study confirms it. But forget
finding some high-altitude fountain of youth, as research shows the lengthy
lifespans are likely due to daily uphill hikes on rugged terrain to gather tea
leaves and hazelnuts. - Fazile Zahir (Mar
24,'09)
INTERVIEW
Redefining America's global role
Tom Barnett's latest book tackles everything from religion and the right way to
engage China to how the US military needed to go through its long 
hard slog in Iraq to evolve. "My thinking was that if we are going to do
something to shake up a calcified Middle East, taking on Saddam made sense,"
the author tells Benjamin A Shobert. As for China, there's a partnership
waiting to happen.(Mar 20,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
Twelve steps to a new grand
strategy
Great Powers: America and the World after Bush by Thomas P M
Barnett
Since George W Bush left office, many Americans have begun soul-searching,
questioning the nature of US power and how it should be used. This book is a
well-reasoned argument for the US to re-engage with the world's problems,
though it should be remembered that the rest of the international community has
some reservations about its intentions. - Benjamin A Shobert
(Mar 20,'09)
INTERVIEW
The Americans need to apologize
Improved relations with Washington are not completely off the cards, but Iran
has yet to receive any so-called olive branch, let alone an apology,
member of parliament Dr Kazem Jalali tells Omid Memarian. A difficulty,
he says, is that Iran's Arab neighbors would prefer to see Tehran in continual
conflict with the West. (Mar 18,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Another round of Ahmadineboom
With the reformist bloc split ahead of Iran's presidential elections on June
12, the road to victory now seems clear for incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who
has just launched a charm offensive to calm the hardcore ayatollahs in Qom and
upstage his only likely rival. The word in Tehran is that an Ahmadinejad second
term would solidify all of Iran's fundamentalist factions. Hawks in Israel are
already polishing their bombs. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 18,'09)
Iraq beefs up pipeline security
Bolstered by a decrease in violence across the country, the Iraqi government is
refocusing its security efforts on the battered oil industry. The frequency of
bombings on the oil sector has slowed, but the threat remains - and it could
come from any of five different groups, including al-Qaeda and Kurdish rebels.
- Fadhil Ali (Mar 17,'09)
A wary Arab world eyes Iran's
elections
In the past, nations in the Persian Gulf feared Iran, but nobody came out and
said it - let alone cut off diplomatic relations with Tehran as Morocco did
last week. Now the Arab world is watching as Iran prepares for presidential
elections, keeping fingers crossed, and fearing what they think would be a
worst-case scenario: another term for President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. - Sami
Moubayed (Mar 16,'09)
Intifada: A third chapter
Israel's attack on Gaza is still fresh in the minds of Palestinians, though
rumors of a third uprising abound in the face of mass arrests, extrajudicial
executions, house demolitions and - perhaps the most contentious of all -
increased settlement construction in the Occupied Territories. - Ramzy Baroud
(Mar 16,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
This
almost-chosen,almost-pregnant land
American Babylon by Richard John Neuhaus
America is "a country with the soul of a church", as author G K Chesterton
wrote, and by no accident, it is the only industrial nation (apart from Israel)
in which religion plays a decisive role in public life. The central role of
religion continues to polarize Americans and confuse foreign observers. - Spengler
(Mar 16,'09)
Is the Israel lobby running scared?
Charles Freeman's withdrawal of his nomination as chairman of the United
States' National Intelligence Council has deep repercussions for the Barack
Obama administration's policy in the Middle East - and it may not be the
triumph it first seemed for the Israel lobby and assorted right-wingers and
neo-conservatives. - Robert Dreyfuss (Mar
16,'09)
Iran 'ready' to aid Afghanistan
Tehran flexed its regional muscles at this week's summit of
the Economic Cooperation Organization, explicitly expressing a willingness to
assist in stabilizing war-torn Afghanistan. Yet if a power-sharing scheme can't
be worked out between Kabul and the Taliban before Afghanistan's elections
scheduled for August, Iran's largesse may arrive too late. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 12,'09)
KEBABBLE
Exorcising Turkey's Islamic imps
The existence of jinn (imps) is widely accepted in the Muslim world.
They are thought to play "pranks", which can range from the harmless to
consuming human livers and demonic possession. Some think they may be aliens,
and they are hogging the headlines in Turkey. - Fazile Zahir
(Mar 12,'09)
Maliki learns from his mistakes
Suffering repeated defeats in the political and military arenas, Iraqi Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki may have finally figured out the right way to run the
country. This includes a secular-sounding agenda and reconciling with Sunnis
and Shi'ites, moves that even his opponents are cautiously applauding. But
that's not to say cries of hypocrisy aren't making the rounds too. - Sami
Moubayed (Mar 12,'09)
Iran wants chess, not American
football
While encouraging Iran to hold discussions with the United
States, Turkey is not going so far as to declare itself a mediator between
Washington and Tehran. Although US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has asked
Turkey to get involved, Iran's "chess game" mentality and regional aspirations
may keep Ankara from asking Tehran to come to the table. - Emrullah Uslu
(Mar 11,'09)
Spy's retreat a win for the Israel
lobby
Though high-powered US diplomats rallied in his defense, former ambassador Chas
Freeman surprised his many supporters by withdrawing from the running for a top
intelligence post in the Barack Obama administration. Despite the Saudi and
Chinese angles to the controversy, the neo-conservatives won the day. - Jim Lobe
and Daniel Luban (Mar 11,'09)
Russia has 'Chechnya' ploy for
Afghanistan
Russia is already looking ahead to the time when the United
States pulls out of Afghanistan, leaving behind an Islamic force that could
spread all the way across Central Asia. Moscow's attempts to create a
multinational force to meet this contingency are going nowhere. Another plan,
drawn from the template used in Chechnya, would see Russia extend its hand deep
into northern Afghanistan. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Mar 11,'09)
COMMENT
Ahmadinejad really is the man in
charge
Despite a widespread perception, it is not Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei pulling the strings in Tehran. That honor lies with President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad, as he has shown in power struggles with the ayatollah. - Shahir
Shahidsaless (Mar 10,'09)
The trade-off season begins on
Afghanistan
Given the interlocking cross-currents swirling around the US-Iran-Russia
equation, it seems that a dizzying number of trade-offs are to be floated.
One possibility is Russia returning to Afghanistan as a key partner of the
United States in exchange for stalling the deployment of the US missile defense
system. Meanwhile, Moscow maintains its excellent relations with Tehran by
proceeding with Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 10,'09)
Iran's anti-Israel rhetoric targets
Arabs
Although Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad insists on rankling Israel,
Tehran has no plans to take action against its long-time enemy. It is merely a
ploy to gain Arab support in the region, as well as a way for Ahmadinejad to
reduce the political risk of any negotiations with the "Great Satan" - the
United States. - Gareth Porter (Mar 10,'09)
US, Iran seek to stop Afghan
narco-traffic
Iran has reacted cautiously to United States Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton's suggestion that it attend a "big tent" conference on Afghanistan. As
a starting point, a focus on Afghanistan's illicit opium trade is a matter of
urgency as a successful anti-narcotics campaign would deprive the Taliban of
millions of dollars. Iran, which is directly affected by the flood of drugs
from its neighbor, would also benefit hugely. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 9,'09)
SPENGLER
Obama and his magic lamp
President Barack Obama was expected to adjust United States foreign policy to
the constraints of rising foreign debt and existing entanglements. Instead,
Obama has strode forth with a magic lamp in hand, namely the US's bottomless
capacity to borrow. Struggling countries - such as Turkey - will smile and nod
and take American checks, at least for the moment, while there still are
functioning governments to take American checks. (Mar
9,'09)
Was Hamas the work of the Israeli
Mossad?
The accusation that the Palestinian movement Hamas was the brainchild of
Israeli intelligence has become so commonplace it often requires no
substantiation. The claim is hogwash, of course, and sullies the history of a
popular movement that has given many occupied Palestinians a sense of
empowerment and self-respect. - Ramzy Baroud (Mar
5,'09)
COMMENT
New Iran report reeks of stale ideas
A recently released report from an influential Washington think-tank designed
to aid President Barack Obama is thick on familiar accusations and rather thin
on specifics of a much-needed new policy toward Iran. The report's main value
may be in revealing the hands of vested interests seeking to obviate Obama's
search for new ways to engage with Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 5,'09)
Obama's spy ruffles hawks' feathers
Israeli lobbyists have launched a massive campaign against the appointment of a
vocal critic of Israel to a key US intelligence post, pointing to Charles
Freeman's ties to Saudi Arabia and views on human rights in China. His
defenders, however, say the hawks simply can't stomach anyone who might
question the wisdom of unconditional support for Israel. - Jim Lobe and Daniel
Luban (Mar 5,'09)
Washington reaches out to Syria
Ending years of dismal relations under the George W Bush presidency, Washington
has taken further concrete steps as part of its promise to improve ties with
Damascus. This includes ending the four-year diplomatic embargo and a visit
from two high-level officials. But such carrots won't come without a price:
Syria may have to break ties with old friend Iran. - Jim Lobe(Mar
4,'09)
Iraqi Kurds dread US troop
withdrawal
United States President Barack Obama's promise to pull all combat troops from
Iraq by 2010 has been met with great anxiety by the country's Kurdish
population. At odds with Washington over what a "responsible" withdrawal really
entails, the Kurds want US help in resolving escalating tensions with the
country's Arabs over territory and oil. - Mohammed A Salih
(Mar 4,'09)
NORTH KOREA AIMS HIGH, Part 2
Iran eases Pyongyang's launch
North Korea knows that launching a satellite - no matter how small - means it
is not a ballistic missile test. Iran has already demonstrated that this is a
very sound approach. - Peter J Brown (Mar 4,'09)
This is the concluding article of a two-part report.
Saddam's ex-front man saves his
neck
Iraq's ex-deputy prime minister Tarek Aziz, the cigar-chomping international
face of the Saddam Hussein era, was acquitted by a Baghdad court last weekend,
while his fromer comrade "Chemical Ali" was sentenced to death by hanging - for
the third time. Aziz might not get a book deal, but after serving in Iraq's
regime for 30 years, he saw a lot, knows a lot and certainly has stories to
tell. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 3,'09)
Turkey hops aboard Russia's ride
Continuing its efforts to firm alliances in the region, Russia
has initiated cooperation with former rival Turkey in a variety of political
and economic areas, taking advantage of Ankara's cooling relations with the
United States and the European Union. Washington is waking up to its worst
nightmare: strategic cooperation among the powers of Eurasia. - F William
Engdahl
(Mar 3,'09)
IAEA 'mismanagement' raises
Tehran's ire
The International Atomic Energy Agency's recent flip-flop over Iran's nuclear
file has angered Tehran, raising questions as to why director general Mohammad
ElBaradei insists on downplaying Iran's cooperation. Meanwhile, Russia is also
fast moving into Tehran's bad books as it continues to play politics with the
Bushehr nuclear plant it is building in Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 3,'09)
Neighborly help needed
Although all counter-insurgency missions in Iraq will officially come to an end
by August 31, 2010, the success of the plan will hinge on the United States'
ability to deter Iran - and its ally Syria - from surging against Iraq while
the US is organizing its departure. - Walid Phares
(Mar 2,'09)
A withdrawal of sorts from Iraq
United States military leaders have compromised by accepting a 19-month
draw-down plan for US troops in Iraq. But in return, President Barack Obama has
given commanders a free hand to determine the size and composition of a
residual force of up to 50,000 troops, apparently including the option of
leaving behind one or more combat brigades. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 2,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The dictionary of empire-speak
Unmanned aerial vehicles called Predators and Reapers (as in Grim Reaper), both
of which use Hellfire missiles, criss-cross the skies over the Pashtun tribal
lands in Pakistan. Their names are just one example of Washington's imperial
language, which both normalizes imperial practices and, in perilous times,
blinds United States officials to crucial global realities. - Tom Engelhardt
(Mar 2,'09)
From 'axis of evil' to 'clenched
fist'
The "axis of evil" of the George W Bush administration that linked Iran, Iraq
and North Korea has been replaced by US President Barack Obama's "clenched
fist" reference to Iran. This term continues to project onto the Iranians a
negative and hostile image and even ranks as pre-war rhetoric. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Feb 27,'09)
A reality check on Iran and the
'bomb'
Reports continue to swirl that Iran is not far from being
capable of producing its first crude nuclear weapon. However, simply having
enough suitability modified material - if indeed this is true - does not in
itself produce a workable weapon. And even a genuine nuclear capability could
in all probability turn out to be a greater long-term threat to Iran's own
survival than to any of its neighbors - something of which the leaders in
Tehran are acutely aware. - Richard M Bennett
(Feb 27,'09)
 CHAN
AKYA
Beggar, I thy neighbor
The economic crisis, unsurprisingly if painfully, is forcing political
realignments around the globe. The pace at which pseudo-autonomous states, from
within Europe to the Gulf to the western United States, are being pushed into
the embrace of richer neighbors presents rare opportunities for a new
generation of Bismarckian politicians. (Feb 27,'09)
A focus on the wrong election in
Israel
The issue is not that Israel will get a new leadership uninterested in peace,
but rather that the United States has a new president very interested in peace.
With America back at the table, it could be time to dust off the Bill Clinton
parameters for peace, bypassing the Israeli and Palestinian leaders and going
directly to the people for a vote on a two-state solution. - Stanley A Weiss
(Feb 26,'09)
Crunched into modernity
As the credit crunch reshapes perceptions of old models of finance, the
Internet and the changes it has wrought on how people and organizations relate
offers new ways of linking investors and borrowers, with a much-reduced role
for banks. - Chris Cook (Feb 26,'09)
An Iranian 'Sputnik' and the new
world order
If totalitarian regimes are so allegedly repressive of inspiration and
creativity, why then do striking scientific accomplishments so often emanate
from such places? Iran's recent "Sputnik" moment calls the question to the
fore, and a comparison of the Soviet Union and Mao's China with today's
free-wheeling America makes an interesting case. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Feb 25,'09)
The Muqtada factor re-emerges in
Iraq
Protesting a lack of party reforms, four members of the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have resigned from their posts. It's the latest in
a string of mounting evidence in Iraq that the Kurds are divided like never
before, which serves Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki well. He is now reviving his
former friendship with Muqtada al-Sadr to gain firm control over key cities. - Sami
Moubayed (Feb 24,'09)
KEBABBLE
Turkey's song and dance over
Eurovision
Although seen by many nations as little more than an excuse to ridicule their
neighbors' bizarre tastes, in Turkey the Eurovision song contest is no joke.
Turkey's singer for this year has drawn the ire of right-wing politicians and
even the nation's own "Madonna". Georgia, meanwhile, plans a disco-fueled
rebuke for Russia, and geopolitical voting is set to return in a big way. - Fazile
Zahir (Feb 24,'09)
Gul gets little from Russia trip
Flourishing economic ties between Turkey and Russia meant business was an
important topic during President Abdullah Gul's upgraded visit to the Russian
Federation this month. Yet words of friendship came with little that will alter
a trade imbalance heavily in Russia's favor. (Feb
24,'09)
IAEA douses furor over Iran report
The Western press jumped all over the latest International Atomic Energy Agency
report that found the nuclear watchdog had underestimated the enriched uranium
at Iran's nuclear facilities by some 30%. Still, the IAEA's timely
clarification gives some hope that the smoldering Iranian nuclear stand-off may
be fading out - rather than raging out of control. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 23,'09)
SPENGLER
Sex, drugs and Islam
Recent studies have documented an explosion of social pathologies in Iran, such
as drug addiction and prostitution, on a scale much worse than anything
experienced in the West. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it appears that
Islamic theocracy promotes rather than represses social decay. Iran may be
fighting for its life. (Feb 23,'09)
Syria takes cautious path on stocks
Syria is set to open its first stock exchange, part of efforts to strengthen
the country's private business sector, even as the rest of the world looks in
vain for a bottom in share-price declines.
(Feb 23,'09)
Syria confident of US detente
Damascus has waited patiently for a change in the leadership of the United
States, and is now making all the right moves to end the isolation imposed on
it during the George W Bush years. But even though both sides have taken
symbolic steps, there's work to be done before real progress is made - Sami
Moubayed (Feb 20,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama, Osama and Medvedev
The 1,600-kilometer Karachi-Khyber-Kabul supply line envisioned by the United
States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is for all practical purposes
dead - thanks to neo-Taliban guerrillas in Pakistan's tribal areas. If
Washington and Moscow can't hash out a new route, the only other realistic
possibility for the coalition is courting Iran, which is already deeply
connected to Russia, and China. - Pepe Escobar
(Feb 19,'09)
Balochis intensify rebellion in
Iran
Violence between Iranian security forces and ethnic Baloch insurgents has
escalated in Iran's southeastern province, with Jundullah (Soldiers of God)
militants unleashing suicide car bombings and executions in response to what
they claim is state-sponsored discrimination against their Sunni Muslim
minority. There are now fears that foreign fighters could be drawn into the
battle, possibly destabilizing Iran and the region. (Feb
19,'09)
Iran's security concerns weigh
heavy
The idea of a "grand bargain" between the United States and Iran over the
latter's nuclear program hinges on Washington offering Tehran a guarantee of no
regime change and respect for its borders. The Iranian leaders, however, have
increasingly pressing concerns over the deteriorating situation in Pakistan and
Afghanistan. This presents a disquieting picture that operates against
maintaining Iran's nuclear potential latent. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 19,'09)
US commanders at odds over Iraq
From mixed reviews of security gains and debate over peacekeeping tasks to
continued disagreements over whether President Barack Obama's 16-month
withdrawal plan should be extended, US commanders just can't seem to concur on
what the real situation is in Iraq. Most do agree that if the US stays too much
longer, the Iraqis are going to get "lazy". - Gareth Porter
(Feb 18,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
An American 'foreign legion'
emerges
The United States military is close to being a foreign legion. Foreign as in
being constantly deployed overseas on imperial errands; foreign as in being
ever-more reliant on private military contractors; foreign as in being
increasingly segregated from the elites that profit most from its actions, yet
serve the least in its ranks. And increasingly foreign to Americans. - William
Astore (Feb 17,'09)
Obama and the counter-insurgency
era
US President Barack Obama campaigned on keeping counter-insurgency as a key
element of US power, and it is likely that such "irregular warfare" will remain
at the forefront of US policy, strategy and operations for the foreseeable
future. Still, a shift in rhetoric now emphasizes "smart power" as the
administration scrambles to "re-brand" the US's image. - Anthony Fenton
(Feb 17,'09)
US and Russia see common cause
The United States and Russia have taken an unceremonious plunge into a marriage
of convenience. Moscow is warming to US President Barack Obama. But detractors
ranging from hardliners in the US to "New Europeans" and Iranians have reason
to worry. They dread that if Obama pursues his "contextual intelligence"
approach to its logical conclusion, he and the Kremlin leaders might enter into
trade-offs at their expense. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 17,'09)
US estimate muddied Iran's nuclear
intent
Conflicting statements recently issued by the White House and the Pentagon
reflect the confusion left by the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's
intentions regarding nuclear weapons. This disconnect can hardly be
overestimated. If Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, the United States must
choose between coercive diplomacy or accepting Tehran's status as a nuclear
power and seeking to deter it. - Gareth Porter
(Feb 17,'09)
Israeli election muddies Obama's
waters
United States President Barack Obama's Middle East project took two impressive
steps forward this week, with positive moves towards Iran and Syria. But the
results of the parliamentary election in Israel - whoever gets to form a
government - make any significant thawing of relations in the near term between
Washington and Tehran and Damascus highly problematic. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 13,'09)
The new Fallujah up close and ugly
In a remarkable tour of the heartland of still devastated Sunni Iraq, Dahr
Jamail takes a ride in the front seat of a US$420,000 armored BMW,
riding with a tribal sheik (whom the US Marines label the John Gotti of
Fallujah); note the AK-47 and the shotgun in back, and the vehicles from the
sheik's security teams that sandwich your car; then, take a slug of whisky, and
don't miss that wad of crisp American $100 bills he's carrying with him.
(Feb 13,'09)
US-IRAN WALL OF MISTRUST, Part 2
Will Obama say 'we're sorry'?
Former ruler the shah and revolutionary leader ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini have
been described as the two juxtaposed Irans: imperial Iran and the painful Iran
of the blood of the martyr, "a juxtaposition that symbolizes an unreal dream
... a dementia of the inaccessible". For US President Barack Obama, the
"inaccessible" can become more than accessible with just a simple "we're
sorry". - Pepe Escobar (Feb 12,'09)
This is the second article in a two-part report.
PART 1: Obama's
Persian double
COMMENT
Iranian fight against hegemony
turns 30
It has been 30 years since the Iranian revolution ended years of humiliation
forced on the nation by US meddling, but Iran's fight against Israel's
expansionism and the American domination of Persian Gulf affairs continues: the
next Middle East war may have already been hatched in Gaza. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 11,'09)
US-IRAN WALL OF MISTRUST, Part 1
Obama's Persian double
Speaking on the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Iranian President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad stressed that any United States changes in attitude towards
Tehran had to be "fundamental and not tactical". It is now up to US President
Barack Obama to differentiate between the two. Obama may, however, be saved
from having to make a choice should Mohammad "dialogue of civilizations"
Khatami return to power. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 11,'09)
This is the first article of a two-part report
US sugarcoats its tough line on
Iran
On the surface, the major foreign policy speech delivered by United States Vice
President Joseph Biden at the weekend's security conference in Germany appeared
conciliatory towards Iran. But Biden avoided any positive appreciation of
Iran's stabilizing role in the region, and he trotted out the
long-standing negative image of Iran as basically an adversary. All those
options are still on the table. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 10,'09)
Petraeus 'leaked' Iraq pullout
plans
An apparent leak by US Central Command chief General David Petraeus about US
combat troop withdrawal plans for Iraq indicates that the most powerful figure
in the American military may be trying to shape media coverage of President
Barack Obama to advance his own policy agenda - and, very possibly, his
personal political interests as well. So far, Obama is treading warily with
Petraeus. - Gareth Porter (Feb 10,'09)
Debt as a unifying power in Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's bold move - forcefully asking the United
Nations to wipe out Iraq's post-Kuwait invasion penalties - could be his
smartest play yet, sending his popularity skyrocketing on the heels of a huge
victory in nation-wide provincial elections. But it didn't take long before
domestic problems crashed the party. - Sami Moubayed
(Feb 9,'09)
Iran's new satellite challenges
China
When Iran launched its little Omid satellite in early February, it said it had
peaceful intentions. China has done nothing to support Iran's stance, and this
silence is not helping matters as Israel's war drums beat louder by the minute.
For Beijing, Omid represents an unusual opportunity, indeed a gift from Iran as
China seeks to play a bigger role on the world's stage. - Peter J Brown
(Feb 9,'09)
SPENGLER
Benedict's tragedy, and Israel's
Pope Benedict XVI, like his predecessor John Paul II, has fought manfully
against prospective deserters within his ranks. The tawdry burlesque over
Benedict's decision to rescind the excommunications of the paranoid Jew-hater
and Holocaust denier Bishop Richard Williamson is a sad gauge of his degree of
success. (Feb 9,'09)
Khatami's challenge may polarize
Iran
Former reformist Iranian president Mohammad Khatami's announcement that he will
run in the June presidential election sets up an intriguing challenge to
hardline President Mahmud Ahmadinejad that could reshape Iran's domestic and
foreign policies. The vote may hinge on the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, who has publicly praised Ahmadinejad. (Feb
9,'09)
Fears orbit with Iranian satellite
launch
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the underlying intent of
Tehran’s recent satellite launch. Not only can such technology intercept radio,
satellite and e-mail communications, it can also track the movement of military
and economic assets. - Walid Phares (Feb
6,'09)
BOOKS
Airport to nowhere
Waltz with Bashir: A Lebanon War Story by Ari Folman and David
Polonsky
This is a stunning, unnerving graphic novel and film describing the traumatic
memories of the director, Ari Folman, from his days serving as a 19-year-old
Israeli "grunt" in the 1982 invasion of Lebanon. From these 
exclusive excepts of the novel, we get a taste of the "bad acid trip" of
Folman's war trauma and his shocking recollections of the notorious massacres
in Beirut's Sabra and Shatila refugee camps. (Feb
6,'09)
The political rebirth of Nuri
al-Maliki
Better security, promises of reconstruction, jobs and better pay, topped with a
new working relationship with US President Barack Obama, might explain why
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki stunned his critics and emerged victorious in
Iraq's provincial elections. Maliki's secular campaign paid off, and his gains
come at the expense of former ally Muqtada al-Sadr and other religiously driven
politicians. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 6,'09)
Moscow, Tehran force the
US's hand
The blowing up of a bridge in the Khyber in Pakistan, the usage of an air base
in the foothills of the Pamirs in Central Asia and the launch of a 37 kilogram
satellite into the night sky over Iran have triggered the political and
diplomatic equivalent of chess' zugzwang. In this case, the United
States will be forced to make a move it would rather not. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 5,'09)
Turkey, IMF talks go to the wire
Turkey, still seeking agreement with the International Monetary Fund on a
stand-by facility as the country's economy worsens, would prefer that any tough
terms were only made public after impending municipal elections. Those polls
will also be a key measure of the country's political risk. - Robert M Cutler
(Feb 5,'09)
US dilemma as Iran's nuclear file
reopens
A fresh round of talks this week involving the six nations dealing with Iran's
nuclear program is a plosive step, even though there is dissension, notably in
Germany, over the best way to deal with Tehran. This multilateral approach,
however, at the same time has the potential to derail the growing impetus for
direct dialogue between Iran and the United States, an initiative that offers
the best hope of resolving this long-standing crisis. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 4,'09)
Another call for direct diplomacy
Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi 
has added her voice to the chorus calling for Washington and Tehran to engage
directly in talks to alleviate the tensions built up over three decades of
hostility. Much will depend on who US President Barack Obama chooses as his
"Iran envoy". (Feb 4,'09)
Obama not bowing to top brass, yet
United States military leaders have tried unsuccessfully to convince President
Barack Obama to back down from his campaign pledge to withdraw all US combat
troops from Iraq within 18 months, forgetting they're no longer dealing with
George W Bush. But the senior officers aren't giving up that easily; their next
plan is to mobilize public support against the president. - Gareth Porter
(Feb 3,'09)
Turkish snub changes Middle
East game
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's snub of Israeli President Shimon
Peres during a television show has caught the imagination of the Islamic world,
from Gaza to Turkey to Iran. In the longer term, pro-West Arab rulers,
especially in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, along with Israel, will need to seriously
factor that Turkey's shadows are deepening on the Middle Eastern landscape:
Neo-Ottomanism sees Turkey as a regional superpower. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 3,'09)
Ahmadinejad rides the American tide
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has thrown his hat into the ring for
another term, and if he manages to distract attention from his four years of
unfilled promises by continuing with his “death to America” rhetoric he just
might win again. Meanwhile, opponents of the hardliner are furious that
reformist Mohammad Khatami has not yet presented his nomination for the June
elections. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 2,'09)
SPENGLER
Who are the 'extraordinary'
Muslims?
Most Muslims want to better their lives, as United States President Barack
Obama told an Arabic television channel last week, but their lives are getting
worse rather than better, and nothing they know can make things better. In
theory, there might be a future in which the Islamic world could live in peace
and prosperity, but today's Muslims cannot get there from here.
(Feb 2,'09)
ASK SPENGLER
Save less, breed more
As always, the inimitable Spengler has gone through his in-box in singular
style. This time he's got slices of sagacity for the leader of the world's
most-populous nation, the new president of a superpower struggling to
jump-start a sputtering economy in time for re-election, and a controversial
defense minister caught between national safety and international opinion.
(Feb 2,'09)
Low turnout, high hopes in Iraq
The turnout in Iraq's provincial elections on Saturday was smaller than
expected, but the vote was still largely peaceful with no major attacks. Early
forecasts show that the biggest winner, aside from democracy and the
football-loving kids who took advantage of the traffic ban, will be Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki's coalition. - Dahr Jamail
(Feb 2,'09)
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AFI Research.
Expert information on the world's intelligence services, armed forces
and conflicts.
ATol Specials
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06 - ongoing)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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