JERUSALEM - While Israel is at daggers drawn
with Iran, its preoccupation with its daunting domestic
concerns that are tearing apart the Jewish population
and the non-conducive international environment are
likely to deter it from the earlier posturing of
carrying out a preemptive strike to foil the Islamic
Republic's nuclear ambitions.
The indications here suggest that Jerusalem
instead would prefer sticking to its
already-launched diplomatic initiatives that it sees as "working" and carry
out a military offensive only as a last resort. While
there was no dearth of rhetoric when Foreign
Minister Silvan Shalom met with his French counterpart,
Michel Bernier, here this week and branded Iran as
the "world's No 1 state sponsor of terrorism", saying that its
nuclear program was at the "top of our agenda",
diplomatic and security sources have ruled out a
"military option as the first line of action".
The Jewish state seems to be content with
the outcome of the public relations blitz it
launched this year, with Shalom raising the issue of
Iran's nuclear program with every leader he met,
including French, German, Irish, Polish and Russian
foreign ministers, and the resulting initiatives in
reaction and "softening" of Russia on the issue.
"Iran's nuclear program and its missile project
is a threat not only to us but the entire world
community and we have worked to draw everyone's
attention to it. Everyone needs to think about it and
look for possible solutions as it can hit any European
city, including Berlin, London and Paris," said Foreign
Ministry spokesman David Saranga, reacting to the
successful testing of the Shahab 3 missile by the
Islamic Republic on Wednesday.
The expected consternation after the missile test, which poses a
direct threat to Israel, was completely missing this
week, with domestic affairs taking the center stage and
leaders locked in frantic efforts to garner support in
favor or against a disengagement plan calling for the
evacuation of the Gaza Strip and some isolated
settlements in the West Bank.
Many here believe
that the issue which has sharply divided the Jewish
masses in Israel, creating a civil war-like situation, with
the far right calling for soldiers to disobey
orders to evacuate and threatening Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon with assassination, combined with the past four
years of ongoing violence, leaves no space for Jerusalem
to ponder any military action against Iran in the near
future, and it is in its interest to intensify
diplomatic efforts instead. A preemptive attack on
Tehran could also open another disconcerting front that
Jerusalem can ill afford.
The initiatives launched
by the leading European Union countries (notably
the Big-3 of France, Germany and the United Kingdom)
and the Group of Eight (G8) to prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear capability has given a breather to the
Jewish state, whose founders laid down the ground rule that
it must maintain military superiority in the
conventional as well as the non-conventional arena against any
Arab or Muslim state at all costs to safeguard its
survival. This principle saw Israel carrying out the
much-talked-about preemptive raid on Iraq's nuclear facility in
Osirak in 1981, and is at the root of its threatening
note against Iran, which it sees as a hostile country
that it accused of supporting radical groups such as
Hezbollah in Lebanon against it.
On
Thursday, Iran said it had not accepted a proposal of the EU
to trade nuclear technology with its uranium-enrichment program.
"It is just at the initial stage. The matter has
to be considered on both sides," Sirius Naseri, an Iranian
official, said on Thursday. At a three-hour
closed-door meeting with Germany, France and Britain at
the French mission to the United Nations, Iran and the
EU trio agreed to have further talks before the November
25 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA), Naseri said. If the November meeting is
inconclusive, the matter will be referred to the
Security Council for possible sanctions against Iran.
The EU offer, which included the provision of a
light-water nuclear reactor, nuclear fuels and nuclear
technology, received reluctant blessings from the US,
which suspected that Iran was using the talks to buy
time and that EU technology would be employed in
developing nuclear weapons.
The EU offer came a
day after Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said his
country would not yield to pressure and stop enriching
uranium, which he insisted was only for power generation
and was totally transparent.
The United
States declaration that Iran will be the "next big issue"
for any administration taking charge after the November
elections and its warning to the "rogue state" to stop
aiding al-Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has strengthened
the belief in Israel that the unfolding of events should
be closely watched while the US carries on intensifying
pressure on the Islamic Republic. In any case, Israel
will coordinate its moves with Washington, its closest
ally, which faces a Herculean task of restoring normalcy
in Iraq, on which it has been widely criticized and
isolated.
"We are capable of dealing with the
development on our own and have the necessary
preparations for it. But for any such action we need to
take into account its implications. Iran's nuclear
program, as we see it, is not only our problem. The
establishment feels that it concerns the global
community at large and any action against it, political
or military, will be more effective if a consensus can
be worked out on it. However, we do not rule out the
possibility of unilateral measures if threatened with
the prospect," a defense source told Asia Times Online.
Uzi Rubin, head of the Defense
Ministry department responsible for ballistic missile
defense, however, cautioned this week at the way Israel is
ignoring Iran's missile development program that it has
carried out openly, unlike the nuclear program, which is
shrouded in secrecy.
"We go crazy about
Iranian progress in the nuclear field, and forget that
the missiles Iran is developing can do us damage even
with conventional capabilities," Rubin told the
daily Ha'aretz. The winner of two national-security prizes for
his role in developing the Ofek spy satellite and the
Arrow anti-missile missile, Rubin believes that
expatriate Russian experts are aiding Iran in its
missile program.
The new shape of the missile's
cone, the part containing the warheads, is very similar
to that found in old Soviet missiles, but different from
the missiles Russia has produced since the Soviet Union
collapsed, he said.
Israeli experts believe
that the Shihab's new shape is meant to foil the
Arrow anti-missile system, Jerusalem's indigenously
developed system that formed its frontline defense
against possible Scud strikes by Saddam Hussein during
the US offensive against him last year.
"A military option in any case will be the last
resort when everything else fails to make an impact.
Israel can always retaliate, having a second strike
capability if attacked, but the crucial factor to be observed
in the coming days is how Russia behaves in the
coming days," said Tel Aviv University Professor Martin
Sherman, an expert on strategic affairs.
"Diplomatic initiatives have yielded good
results in the recent past and when even Europe, which
has a long record of appeasement, has shown concern on
the matter convincing Israel to monitor the developments
instead of a hasty response," Sherman said. However, he
did not completely rule out a possible military action
by Israel, especially a seaborne action, if Israel is
convinced that the Islamic Republic is on the verge of
acquiring nuclear capability. The indications of this
are non-evident at the moment, he added, with no efforts
being made by the establishment to build up public
opinion in favor of such a strike.
Russia,
indeed, has a defining role to play in the affair as it
is building a nuclear reactor for Iran, but it is faced
with a strange predicament where it cannot afford to
upset anyone. Iran is already crying foul at Moscow
joining hands with the G8 against it, which could
adversely affect Moscow's strategic ties with Tehran,
accompanied by financial losses. On the other hand, if
Russia sides too much with Iran, it could upset the G8,
and lose precious Western and US aid. Experts feel that
Russia has "moderated" its stand and is trying to
balance its position, but it is bound to face some tough
moments during the coming days when it will have to take
certain decisive steps on the issue.
To sum up,
Jerusalem is likely to keep up its diplomatic offensive
against Iran and wait and watch the outcome of the
initiatives of the G8, the International Atomic Energy
Agency, and leading EU countries now under way. With the
US deeply involved in Iraq, it is highly unlikely that
Israel will get a green light from Washington for
carrying out a preemptive strike against Iranian
nuclear facilities in the near future, and the Sharon
administration will instead focus its attentions on the
domestic challenges ahead. The Jewish state also seems
to believe that diplomatic initiatives have done well
and succeeded in deterring the Iranian regime for the
time being.
A matter of pride for
Iran For a majority of Iranians, there is no
doubt that the ruling clerics are after the nuclear
bomb, but at the same time they are not certain that the
weapon is to be used to annihilate Israel, nor do they
buy the regime's "assuring" that the efforts to acquire
nuclear technology are for civilian purposes only. The
problem is that not only the international community,
but also many Iranians do not believe the mullahs,
accusing them of using and abusing the Shi'ite principle
of taqiyeh, (dissimulation, or not saying the
truth in the service of some interest).
Indeed,
for a majority of Iranians, Arab nations are Iran's main
and potential enemies, not Israel. The same kind of
sentiment is shared by a majority of Arabs, who consider
Iran and Israel as if not friends, certainly not
enemies.
As Hussein Moussavian, the secretary of
the foreign department of Iran's Supreme Council for
National Security, explained in an interview with Asia
Times Online, mastering the full circle of the nuclear
process, above all enriching uranium, would give Iran's
stature and status both in the region and in the world a
new dimension. "No country with a program of producing
7,000 megawatts of electricity out of nuclear power can
afford being dependent on a foreign provider of nuclear
fuel," he said, explaining why Iran is determined to
master the full cycle of the nuclear energy process.
Last month, Iran said it had 37 tons of uranium
and was ready to begin converting it to uranium
hexafluoride gas, a substance that can then be used to
enrich uranium. Enriched uranium is a key ingredient in
both the nuclear fuel needed to produce electricity in
power plants - and in atomic bombs.
Two Iranian
officials have admitted that a "few tons" of uranium
already have been converted to the gas. Because little
is lost in the process, Iran would now appear to possess
a sizable amount of uranium hexafluoride gas, in
defiance of a demand last month by the board of
governors of the IAEA that Tehran stop all
enrichment-related activities. Hussein Musavian, Iran's
chief delegate to the IAEA, urged calm, saying the
conversion process is only for what he called
"experimental" purposes.
But at
the State Department in Washington, spokesman Adam Ereli
said this assertion is hard to believe, especially if
Iran plans to convert all the uranium it has. "Clearly,
37 tons is not a test, as Iran suggests. It's a
production run," he said. "It comes as no surprise that once
again Iran is defying the board [of the IAEA] and is
producing uranium hexafluoride feed material. There is no
peaceful use for this enriched uranium at the present time,
in our view. It clearly indicates that Iran is
continuing its efforts in a nuclear-weapons program," Ereli said.
A source told Asia Times Online:
"Iranian nuclear scientists are of two
categories: one consisting of those who are devout
Muslims and believe staunchly in the system of
velayat faqih ,
or the rule of an absolute leader. The
others are nationalist, aiming at restoring the grandeur of Iran.
However, both are well paid and enjoy plenty of
material and social advantages, but they are
also tightly controlled by special security and psychological
agents." The source added that one should not commit the mistake
of comparing Iranian nuclear scientists to those of
Saddam Hussein, meaning that there is almost no way to
expect them to come out and provide details about Iran's
nuclear programs.
Amir Jahanchahi, a Paris-based
Iranian dissident, writing in the French centrist
newspaper Le Figaro on September 29, said the Iranian
ayatollahs want the atomic bomb to perpetuate their
survival at a time that the theocracy is rejected by the
majority of Iranians. "This regime cannot survive but by
procreation of its model, by conquering other
territories and exporting its ideology," he explained.
"A nuclear arm would not be dissuasive, but offensive,
one of conquest that would serve the expansion of the
Iranian ruling fundamentalists' ideology, the source of
modern-day terrorism."
Another reason
is the presence of US forces all around Iran,
in Afghanistan on the east, Iraq on the west, Turkey in
the north and the Persian Gulf on the south. "Being
a nuclear power would dramatically change the
picture, making it more difficult for a possible attack on
the Islamic Republic," observed Dr Mohammad Djalili,
a professor at the Graduate Institute of
International Studies in Geneva.
Iran's nuclear
program for producing electricity began under the shah
in 1974, and highly informed sources have told Asia Times
Online that though the monarch did not state officially
his intentions on these projects, scientists formulated
the works in such a way that in the event that the shah
decided to produce an atomic bomb, it would be possible
to develop a parallel program within a short time.
Hence Washington and Jerusalem insist
that the present project in Bushehr, developed with the
help of Russia and now in its final phase, is a
lure for diverting the technology into
military purposes. However, the US and Israel suffer from a
"chronic" lack of "humint" (human intelligence) on Iran, for
the simple reason that the country, immediately after
the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, cut all
ties with both countries, the major sources of modern
arms and intelligence-gathering in the former regime.
Iran's and Israel's military possibilities Iran's Shahab 3 missiles could reach Israel,
having a range exceeding 1,500 kilometers, but their accuracy is
far from certain, and so far Iran does not have a
nuclear warhead capable of dealing the Jewish state a
"fatal blow". Reports from Russian technicians with
experience in Iran indicate that even the civilian
nuclear program lacks cohesion and is marked by
technical deficiencies.
Israel has the
capability of hitting Iran with its air force - capable
of carrying nuclear warheads - and now "bunker buster"
bombs promised from the US.
A major problem is
that Iran's key military sites are disseminated across
the country's huge geographic space. When the country
was at war with Iraq in the 1980s, most strategic sites
were moved to remote areas in the mountainous
Iran-Afghanistan borders far away from the reach of
Iraq's air force and missiles. (In 1987 and 1988,
though, the reactor sites at Bushehr, under construction
by Germany and partly finished at 75%, but halted with
the coming to power of the Islamic Republic in 1979,
were damaged by Iraqi air strikes.)
"Hitting the
Bushehr nuclear-powered electric station or other atomic
sites like Natanz and Esfahan will not solve anything,
as Iran's alleged installations for making the nuclear
weapon are elsewhere and well guarded from enemy eyes,"
one Iranian source with reliable information told Asia
Times Online.
Another handicap for Israel
in attacking Iran is the presence of a large
Jewish community, estimated at 20,000-30,000 (against some
80,000 before the Islamic Revolution), the largest in
the Middle East outside Israel, officially recognized by the
constitution and enjoying one representative in
parliament and freedom of cult and schools. The fear is
that they could become hostages in the hands of Muslim
extremists in the event of a major military showdown
between the two countries.
Iranian officials,
both civilian and military, "assure" that if Israel were
to make a military move, the response from Iran would be
"devastating" for the Jewish state.
In a recent
article, Hoseyn Shari'atmadari, an intelligence officer
appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as
the editor of the hardline evening daily Keyhan, said,
"Israel knows very well that if it commits the slightest
mistake, it would face a catastrophe," and explained that
"Israel has not yet met our martyr-seekers, an arm more
destructive than any other weapon". He was referring to
the mobilization and training of "thousands" of
volunteers for suicide operations. Shari'atmadari is
considered a mouthpiece for Khamenei.
(Additional reporting by Safa Haeri in Paris.)
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