Page 2 of 2 Khamenei rides a storm in a tea cup
By M K Bhadrakumar
Meanwhile, Khamenei has directed the Guardians Council to review the appeals
about the election and to give its opinion within a week to 10 days. He also
held a joint meeting with the representatives of the four candidates in the
election and officials from the 12-member Guardians Council and the Interior
Ministry. At the meeting, Khamenei used harsh language describing the street
protesters as "vandals" for damaging state property. He told the candidates'
supporters to distance themselves from the "vandals" and to support peace in
the country as the election "should not cause divisions".
Khamenei added, "If the election result had been different, even then such
incidents would have occurred" as "some people" are against the unity of the
Iranian nation and the solidarity of the
Islamic system. He offered that a partial recount of the votes in the elections
could be arranged, if necessary. But he concluded by passing his own judgment,
"Those in charge of supervising the elections are always trustworthy people."
Tehran rebuffs Europe
Alongside, Tehran has rebuffed European attempts to interfere. This has been
done at the appropriate diplomatic level with the Foreign Ministry calling in
the envoys of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Besides, a
"unity rally" held in Tehran by supporters of Ahmadinejad condemned "enemies,
particularly the US, Britain and Israel ... [for] interfering in Iran's
internal affairs, plotting against the government and giving media support to
the enemy groups, rioters and social and political hooligans who are trying to
fuel chaos in the Islamic Republic".
All in all, therefore, Western capitals will take note that the hope that a
color revolution might overturn Ahmadinejad's victory or in a best-case
scenario lead to the toppling of the Iranian regime is far-fetched and almost
fanciful. The extent of the street protests has come down in Tehran, although
uncertainties remain. The hope that there would be a countrywide popular
uprising seems also to be far-fetched.
If Rafsanjani's astute political temperament is any guide, he will lie very low
and generally avoid being noticed for a while. Meanwhile, he will do some
intense networking with his contacts in the power apparatus, putting out his
extraordinary political antennae and making a careful assessment as to the
scope for compromise with the powers that be and when he should make his move.
He should first live to fight another day. That may require making compromises.
After all, politics is the art of the possible. So, without batting an eyelid,
he may turn his back on Mousavi and former president Mohammed Khatami, who
were, after all, his temporary allies in the recent saga.
Will he get another chance? That is a big question. Time seems to have run out
for Rafsanjani. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly projected an "anti-corruption" drive
as a major plank of his new presidency. Was that mere election rhetoric, or
will he go for the Rafsanjani family, which has many skeletons in its cupboard?
Everything depends on what Khamenei thinks. He may assess that this time the
"Shark" went too far to plot a lethal attack that might have succeeded. Or, he
might let bygones be bygones.
Rafsanjani is undoubtedly the West's favorite poster boy - and of the
"pro-West" Arab authoritarian rulers in the region. The difficult choice for
European capitals is how much propaganda mileage to extract at this stage
before moving on. Once US-Iranian engagement begins, European companies will
scramble for oil contracts. If the European Union's ill-starred Nabucco gas
pipeline project has a fighting chance to materialize, that will depend
primarily on gaining access to Iranian gas.
Also, European capitals will have noted that there is great reticence on the
part of Middle Eastern countries to point fingers at Tehran for not practicing
Western style democracy. Autocratic Arab regimes will be nervous that if the
contagious disease of the color revolution were to appear in Iran, it might
eventually spread on the Middle Eastern political landscape. Unsurprisingly,
the lone exception has been Israel (and its media friends), which has a vested
interest in scuttling US-Iran engagement and will not easily pass up an
opportunity to malign Ahmadinejad.
On the other hand, three important neighbors of Iran - Pakistan, Afghanistan
and Azerbaijan - promptly greeted Ahmadinejad, quite ahead of protocol
requirements to do so. Ahmadinejad was warmly greeted at the SCO summit, too.
"Iran, Russia and China are three major economic and political poles attending
the [SCO] summit ... [They] play important roles in dealing with the world's
current and upcoming developments," Ahmadinejad was reported as saying in the
People's Daily and it also highlighted Ahmadinejad's tirade against the
"unipolar world order" in his speech. On its part, Moscow said in a structured
statement, "The Iranian elections are the internal affair of Iran. We welcome
the fact that elections took place, we welcome the new president on Russian
soil and see it as symbolic that he made his first visit [as newly-elected
president] to Russia. This allows hope for progress in bilateral relations."
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev scheduled a bilateral with Ahmadinejad at
Yekaterinburg.
Khamenei has made it clear in recent weeks that the Obama administration will
meet a resolute interlocutor when US-Iran direct negotiations begin shortly. No
amount of Western pressure tactics on the democracy plank is going to soften up
Khamenei. With Ahmadinejad continuing as president for a second term, Khamenei
has his chosen team in position.
The Obama administration faces difficult choices. The stir in Tehran is fast
becoming a "Twitter revolution". No such thing has ever happened there, despite
the best efforts of former US vice president Dick Cheney and his covert team
for well over four years for triggering "regime change".
The US is sensing the potential of a "Twitter revolution" in Iran. Earlier, in
Moldova, the potential of Twitter to trigger convulsions in popular moods was
studied. The US State Department confirmed on Tuesday it had contacted Twitter
to urge it to delay a planned upgrade that would have cut daytime service to
Iranians. But a department spokesman denied that the contacts with Twitter
amounted to meddling in Iran's internal affairs - US sensitivity about causing
annoyance to the Iranian regime is self-evident.
At the same time, Obama has to worry that unrest in Iran may scuttle his plans
to commence direct engagement with Tehran within the coming days or weeks. On
the contrary, he must face the music from the influential Israel lobby in the
US, which is unhappy that Washington is not pressing the pedal hard enough on a
color revolution in Iran. But Obama is treading softly. He said late on Tuesday
there appeared to be no policy differences between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi.
"The difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual
policies may not be as great as has been advertised. Either way, we are going
to be dealing with an Iranian regime that has historically been hostile to the
United States."
That's a cleverly drafted formulation. Prima facie, Obama pleases the regime in
Tehran insofar as he appears "stand-offish" as to what ensues through the
coming days by way of the street protests or out of the deliberations of Iran's
Guardians Council. Fair enough. But, on the other hand, Obama also is smartly
neutralizing any allegation that the Rafsanjani-Khatami-Mousavi phenomenon is
in any way to be branded by the Iranian regime as "pro-US". Obama's remark
helps the Iranian opposition to maintain that its motivations are purely driven
by Iran's national interests.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
