Sunnis present a new face in Iraq
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The Iraqi Accordance Front (IAF), the largest Sunni coalition in
Iraq, is promising its constituency a major breakthrough in the parliamentary
elections set for January.
Last weekend, the Front announced the formation of an all-Sunni coalition that
plans to increase the Front's lot from its current 44 out of the 275 seats in
parliament. This comes shortly after Shi'ite heavyweights formed their own
coalitions, for the same purpose, in September and October.
The new Sunni list includes the Iraqi Islamic Party, the People of Iraq
Coalition (headed by Adnan al-Duleimi) and the Turkman Justice Party, in
addition to tribal leaders and prominent figures
like parliament speaker Iyad Samarrai and Nasir al-Ani, head of the
Presidential Assembly (Diwan).
Noticeably absent was the National Dialogue Council, headed by Khalaf Ulayan
(who alone now controls seven seats in parliament) and the Arab Independent
bloc, headed by Abdmutlak al-Jabbouri. Sunni heavyweight Saleh al-Mutlak will
be joining the coalition of former prime minister Iyad Allawi - yet another
blow to the Accordance Front.
Speaking from Baghdad, Samarrai said, "There are no red lines; we are open to
dealing with everybody in order to solidify democracy."
Most Iraqis believe that the Accordance Front's days in the sun are over, due
to the absence of so many influential players from the Sunni coalition. All of
the remaining names are religiously driven products of Islamic groups - none of
them are bookish, academic, secular or liberal. That makes a smashing victory
difficult and so does the challenge of Shi'ite heavyweights like the Iraqi
National Alliance of ex-prime minister Ibrahim Jaafari and the State of Law
Alliance, headed by current Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
Additionally, the Front has no ideological program and is focused solely on
protecting the community's interests and granting them greater representation
in the political system. In 2005, its leaders campaigned on ending the United
States occupation, keeping Iraqi lands united, restoring Sunnis to government
jobs and ending the de-Ba'athification laws that led to the arrest and
persecution of millions of Sunnis.
While most of that still stands, the IAF will have a hard time reaching out to
Iraq's 10 million Sunnis, who are sharply divided between religious and
secular, Ba'athist and independent, tribal and urban and educated and
illiterate.
For the past three years, the US has repeatedly tried to talk Maliki into
turning a new page with Sunnis. This was constantly repeated by Defense
Minister Robert Gates and by former US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad - words that
fell on deaf ears in Baghdad.
Originally, the Sunnis boycotted the parliamentary elections of 2005 -
resulting in a parliament overwhelmingly dominated by pro-Iran Shi'ites.
They've never recovered from the ramifications of staying out of the political
process, by choice, in 2005. Many are keen that such a mistake is not repeated
in 2010.
During the provincial elections of this January, Sunnis came out in large
numbers and voted, even in hotbeds of the Sunni insurgency like Tikrit. That
resulted in a Sunni victory and in a staggering defeat for pro-Iran parties,
like the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC). Then, the SIIC lost eight out of
11 seats in Iraq - showing just how powerful the Sunnis can be if they decide
to collectively be part of the political process.
The al-Qaeda giant on the streets of Iraq, which does not want Sunnis to
succeed in politics, will certainly be a headache for the IAF. There will be an
aggressive attempt to silence Front leaders in the two months ahead of the
elections, just like the attack on IAF head Harith al-Obeidi, who was gunned
down in June after delivering a Friday sermon in Baghdad.
He was the 100th Front leader to be killed since the downfall of dictator
Saddam Hussein's regime in 2003. The Sunni heavyweights working with prime
ministers Jaafari and Maliki will also not want the Front to emerge victorious
in January.
After all, when the Front walked out on the Maliki cabinet in August 2007,
Maliki saw it as a blessing in disguise. He needed them on board when he
created his cabinet in 2006 - using them then as a political cover to justify
his campaign against al-Qaeda leader Abu Musaab al-Zarkawi.
With the passing of time, however, they became too difficult to accommodate,
demanding conditions Maliki could not meet. They asked for a political amnesty
to set political prisoners free, a greater role for Sunnis in the cabinet, and
even began toying with the idea of demanding the Iraqi presidency - which they
see as a natural right. When none of these conditions were attained - neither
the possible nor the difficult - the Front walked out on the prime minister. He
did not lift a finger to keep them in government and since then he has done
nothing to bring them back into power.
Conditions have since changed and Maliki realizes that if he is to win in
January, he needs the backing of Sunnis. His new party, the State of Law
Coalition, is composed of 55 politicians, including Sunni leaders like Said
Fawzi Abu Risheh and Yawer al-Shummari. They are being used by the premier who
wishes to come across as a cross-confessional leader, given the weight they
possess as tribal leaders in the Sunni community.
This rips the Sunni vote into three groups; some people voting for the Front,
others voting for Samarrai and Abu Risheh - and a third camp refusing to vote,
because of political grievances with the entire post-Saddam era.
The real question, which will make or break the IAF or any other Sunni party in
the elections, is to what extent regional players, like Saudi Arabia and Syria,
support them.
In 2005, Sunnis were not enthusiastic about joining the post-Saddam regime, and
the Syrians and Saudis were at odds over Lebanon, making any coordination
between them on Iraq virtually impossible. That too has changed - clearly from
their coordinated effort in the provincial elections in January and the mood in
the Sunni community, which feels left out of the political process by Maliki
and his team.
Given rising tension between Damascus and Baghdad, which will negatively affect
Iraqi-Saudi relations, there is a high chance that more than ever before,
Iraq's Sunnis might get a fairly large share of the 275-seat parliament -
perhaps not ousting, but certainly posing a serious challenge to the Iraqi
prime minister.
Sami Moubayed is editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
