NEW
DELHI - Faced with a Maoist challenge of its own,
particularly on the eve of general elections, India is
beginning to worry about the danger of chaos and anarchy
overwhelming Nepal in its continuing standoff with
Maoists. Almost half of the tiny Himalayan neighbor in
India's volatile northeast is already overrun by the
increasingly assertive Maoists, who are now also
attacking Indian civilians and their property. Despite
continuing pre-occupation with elections, which start
soon, the Indian leadership is beginning to respond,
particularly because of the dangerous implications for
India itself, given the links between the Maoists on
both sides of the border.
There is strong
speculation in the media that India is helping form a
new government in Nepal to resolve the present standoff
between King Gyanendra and the opposition political
parties who are leading the agitation against the
government. These reports are largely based on a series
of meetings that Indian ambassador to Nepal, Shyam
Saran, has had with the king, Prime Minister Surya
Bahadur Thapa and main opposition leaders like Nepali
Congress leader Girja Prasad Koirala and Communist Party
of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) leader Madhav Kumar
Nepal. It is said that neither Koirala nor Nepal is
acceptable to the king as prime minister. Saran is back
in Delhi for consultations for the second time in less
than a fortnight.
India has vital security
interests in Nepal that are threatened by the current
chaos. A large number of Indian and joint Indo-Nepali
ventures in the Himalayan country will be threatened
with continued instability there. Also, India shares a
long and open border with the country which is sometimes
used by Maoist insurgents to cross over and help Indian
insurgents.
Indian Deputy Prime Minister and
Home Minister Lal Krishna Advani has said that New Delhi
is planning to launch stringent action against Naxalites
(as Maoists and other communist insurgents are known in
India), who have indulged in terrorist activities in
over half a dozen Indian states, including Orissa, with
clandestine support from the Maoist insurgents of Nepal.
A virtual Maoist corridor appears to run through several
Indian states, like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West
Bengal and Madhya Pradesh, linking Nepal and the South
Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The chief minister of
Andhra Pradesh, Chandra Babu Naidu, survived a murderous
Naxalite assault on his motorcade recently.
Advani has commented on Nepali Maoist insurgents
and their relations with Naxalites in India for the
second time during an election speech in the Indian
state of Orissa. He said: "Maoists of Nepal are trying
to create troubles in India and the central government
will initiate immediate steps to launch a stringent
action to end the existing relations between the Maoists
of Nepal and Indian Naxalites." Advani also acknowledged
having discussed these issues with the higher concerned
state authorities in West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand,
Andhra Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and Orissa.
While
Advani, preoccupied as he admittedly is with the
elections, has taken a week to respond, the government
of India responded quickly. Almost immediately after an
attack just over a week ago on Indian nationals and
Indian cargo vehicles by Maoists in western Nepal, the
External Affairs Ministry (MEA) reacted strongly and
called for the perpetrators of the "blatant act of
terrorism" to be apprehended and punished. In an
official statement, the MEA spokesperson said that India
holds the leadership of the Communist Party of Nepal
(Maoists) responsible for these incidents in which a
number of Indian nationals were shot and seriously
wounded and several oil tankers were burnt and
destroyed.
At the same time, mindful of the
other standoff in Nepal - the one between the political
parties and King Gyanendra - New Delhi used the
opportunity to highlight the importance of the king and
his political opposition reaching a "national consensus
to deal with this situation with the urgency it
deserves". Kathmandu has been rocked by protests over
the past week with thousands of demonstrators demanding
an end to the ongoing constitutional crisis in the
country.
Hundreds of demonstrators have been
arrested in recent weeks while demanding the return to
democracy. Police rounded up about 100 more
anti-monarchy protesters last Wednesday as leftist
students claimed to have taken control of a campus of
one of Nepal's most prestigious universities. Police
drove away several protesters affiliated with the main
opposition who chanted slogans denouncing King Gyanendra
in defiance of a ban on demonstrations in the capital
Kathmandu, news agencies reported. Authorities have been
trying to end a fortnight of sometimes violent protests
against the king, who infuriated the political
establishment in 2002 by dismissing the elected
government for "incompetence".
The Indian
government has also requested the Nepalese government to
provide full security for Indian personnel and property
in Nepal. India is "already working together with the
authorities in Nepal to confront the challenge of
terrorism through mutual cooperation", the statement
noted. "Such incidents, far from deterring such
cooperation, will only lead to redoubled efforts on the
part of both countries to overcome the danger which such
terrorism poses to the security of both our countries."
Maoist rebels set ablaze 18 stationary oil
tankers at Dhangarghi, near the border with the Indian
state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), about 600 kilometers west
of Kathmandu. Initial reports said at least 10 of them
had Indian registration numbers. The helper of a truck
from Rajasthan was injured when rebels fired at his
vehicle near the UP border. Another truck was set ablaze
at Butwal in western Nepal. The Maoist-run Akhil Nepal
Trade Union (Revolutionary) has threatened more attacks
in protest against the arrest of "our great leader".
Maoist attacks on Indians appear to be in
retaliation for the arrest of Mohan Vaidya, number three
in the Maoist hierarchy. Vaidya was arrested in
Darjeeling in the Indian state of West Bengal and handed
over to the Nepalese authorities. This is the first time
the rebels have openly turned their ire on Indian
interests since the beginning of their rebellion in
1996. Three Indians were injured in the attacks. Most
Nepalese acknowledge Vaidya as the political guru of
Maoist chief Pushpa Kamal Dahal and his arrest is seen
as a big setback to the Maoist movement in Nepal. Last
Wednesday, a day after Vaidya was produced in a Siliguri
court, Dahal asked for his release, describing his
detention as a bid by India to extract benefits from
Nepal.
Security agencies of Nepal and India have
already finalized plans to launch a joint operation to
curb Maoist activities on their borders. Top level
security officials of the two countries met in Raxaul, a
small town on the Indian side of the border, and decided
to coordinate their operation against the guerrillas
taking advantage of the open border. The meeting was
held to foil the suspected joint plan of two guerrilla
groups, the Maoists in Nepal and the Naxalites, Maoists
and other communist extremists in India.
"Indian
security personnel have expressed commitment to control
rebels' action against Nepal from their soil," a Nepali
official was quoted as having said to the press, adding
that the two countries have agreed to exchange
information and start joint patrolling and search
operations in their border areas. An Indian official
also informed there is heavy deployment of the Indian
Sashastra Seema Bal security force at the borders. The
border will remain closed for three days prior to the
parliamentary elections in India that are due to be held
in five phases from April 26 to May 10.
While
Indian interests in Nepal are vital, its options are
limited. So far India has followed a two-pronged policy.
It has repeatedly advised King Gyanendra to work out a
compromise with the political parties and put in place a
credible government that could address the extremist
threat. At the same time, it has provided military
assistance to the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) in its war
against extremism.
Though New Delhi is thinking
its options afresh, the same policy has been in evidence
in the past fortnight as well. Reports about the
mediation effort, if true, are clear signs of a
recognition that the present policy is not working. The
king has so far refused to work with the political
parties despite Indian efforts. He has done nothing to
allay apprehensions voiced by many since he ousted the
elected government in 2002 that he wants to revert to an
executive monarchy, transgressing the limits of the 1990
constitution and nullifying the gains of decades-long
struggle for democracy.
Nor have, in the Indian
view, the main opposition parties shown much sagacity.
The five key political parties are a mess. They have
become a byword for corruption and infighting. It is
difficult for the Nepalese people to have much respect
for those who produced 12 governments in 13 years. Even
now they have not really covered themselves with glory
by having brought the country to a standstill. Their
tactic of making common cause with the Maoists against
the monarch will only help the Maoists and not a full
restoration of democracy that they are demanding.
The second part of Indian strategy - help the
RNA - has also not worked. Despite military assistance
from India and the United States, a sharp increase in
manpower, firepower, mobility, and to some extent,
intelligence and tactically sound relocation of their
garrisons and outposts complete with mines, wires and
booby-traps, the RNA has not been able to tame the
Maoists. The RNA manpower has grown from a mere 50,000
in 2001 to 73,000, and by next year will number 80,000.
RNA troops' caliber has been significantly enhanced by
new weapons, like 12,000 M-16 rifles from the US, 5,000
mini machine guns from Belgium, and at least 20,000
rifles from India. The Indian army has provided them
with counter-insurgency training and taught them
survival skills. Yet the Maoists, with no support from
the outside world and no improvement in their
operational capabilities, launched attacks last month
against Bhojpur in the east and Beni in the west, killed
32 policemen and nine RNA personnel, wiped out the
police post and took away weapons and ammunition, and
the telephone tower.
On top of this
demonstration of RNA incompetence despite considerable
outside help, the Nepali media are full of the stories
of human rights violations by the army. There are
complaints that the RNA has been indiscriminate in the
use of force and has been alienating the people, rather
than winning their hearts and minds that it was supposed
to be doing. One reason for the sorry state of affairs
is its favorite tactic: armed helicopters fitted with 50
machine guns dropping 81mm bombs over suspected Maoist
hideouts. These tactics naturally lead to a large number
of killings of innocent civilians and help provide
further recruitment base for the Maoists.
The
Maoist attacks on Indians and subsequent claims that it
was not a planned affair is being interpreted in some
circles in Delhi as both a threat and a feeler. Maoists,
according to this theory, want India to remain
disengaged, and if it does so it would have no cause to
fear the consequences of a Maoist takeover of the
country. In other words, if India doesn't take sides
now, as it seems to be doing, the Maoists would leave
India alone, if and when they come to power. India,
however, doesn't think it can afford to allow Nepal to
degenerate into chaos and anarchy. New Delhi would not
remain a silent spectator to a Maoist takeover of Nepal
that is being feared more and more with the incompetence
of the anti-Maoist forces on display in the past couple
of years, and the seeming absence of any viable
political party emerging out of the current batch.
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