Delhi in step with the
generals By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - India's decade-long efforts to
engage Myanmar's ruling generals touched a new high last
week when Delhi rolled out the red carpet to welcome
Senior General Than Shwe on his six-day visit to the
country. With Myanmar agreeing to help India fight
insurgents in the northeast, it does seem that Delhi's
quiet courting of the generals is slowly paying off.
General Than Shwe's visit is historic. He is the
first head of state from Myanmar to visit India in 25
years. It has also been a hugely successful visit for
both countries. The two sides signed agreements on
security, cultural exchanges and hydroelectric power.
While India has persuaded Myanmar to cooperate in
tackling insurgents operating in the northeast of the
country, Myanmar's military junta has won a stamp of
approval from the world's largest democracy.
India's northeast has the dubious distinction
of being home to Asia's longest-running insurgency. There
has been a sharp surge in extremist violence in the
northeastern states in recent months, particularly in
Assam, while anti-India sentiment in Manipur is at an
all-time high. In the wake of the surge in extremist
violence in the northeast, support from Bangladesh and
Myanmar - countries that share borders with the Indian
northeast - has assumed importance. With Bangladesh
denying the existence of anti-India militant camps on
its territory and unlikely to cooperate with India at
this juncture, courting Myanmar's generals has become
all the more important. India needs the military junta's
cooperation to ensure that the large number of insurgent
outfits operating in the northeast are denied sanctuary
in Myanmar's jungles.
During Than Shwe's visit,
the two countries agreed to tackle terrorism jointly.
Under the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by
Foreign Minister Natwar Singh and Myanmar Foreign
Minister Nyan Win, both sides have committed to
enhancing cooperation against terrorism, arms smuggling,
money laundering, drug trafficking, organized crime,
international economic crimes and cyber crimes. The
mechanism for cooperation includes the exchange of
information and personnel, cooperation between law
enforcement agencies and joint reviews. An expert
consultative group, comprising senior officers, will
meet annually to monitor and review the progress of the
MoU. Myanmar assured India that it would not allow its
territory to be used by insurgent groups pursuing
objectives "inimical to Indian interests".
India
has offered Myanmar a number of incentives for
cooperation with Delhi. These include an MoU on the
Tamanthi hydroelectric project in Myanmar, agreements on
cultural exchanges and the upgrading of rail networks.
Delhi has also offered to build more highways in
addition to the one it has built between Tamu in Manipur
and Mandalay. Above all, India's warm embrace of the
visiting general would have provided the military junta
with incentive in itself.
Other senior generals,
including Maung Aye, have visited the country, but this
was a handshake at the highest level between the world's
largest democracy and a country that suffers
considerable international isolation. Fighting the
raging insurgency in its northeastern states,
neutralizing China's substantial influence in Myanmar
and growing economic interests in its eastern neighbor
prompted India to revise its policy toward Myanmar a
decade ago. Until then India's policy toward Myanmar was
based on support to the struggle for restoration of
democracy there. India was among the most vociferous of
countries that called on Myanmar's military government
to respect the mandate of the 1990 election in which the
National League for Democracy (NLD) won a sweeping
majority. India was therefore reluctant to engage the
generals initially.
India's decision to tone
down its opposition to Myanmar's generals and to do
business with them led to a quiet engagement.
Cooperation with Myanmar's generals
in fighting militancy is not new. In 1995, for instance,
the Indian and Myanmarese security forces trapped scores
of insurgents in a pincer movement along the Mizoram
border. In February 2000, the Myanmar army cracked down
on camps of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland
(Khaplang) and the United Liberation Front of Assam on
its territory.
For those who expected Than Shwe's
visit to result in joint counter-insurgency operations,
the agreement would have come as a disappointment. But
such expectations are unrealistic given that India's
ties with the generals are still evolving. There are
some who hope that Myanmar will carry out a Bhutan-like
military offensive against the Indian insurgent camps on
Myanmar soil. Late last year, the Royal Bhutan Army
cracked down on Bhutan-based camps and hideouts of
anti-India insurgents. However, India's relations with
Myanmar are hardly on par with the close ties it has
with Bhutan. India does not have with Myanmar the
immense leverage it has with Bhutan. And even in the
case of Bhutan, action against the Indian insurgent
camps came only when they were seen by the Bhutanese
government to be a threat to Bhutan's internal security.
A retired Indian army officer points out that
Myanmar's military junta is in principle not averse to a
crackdown against Indian insurgents operating from its
territory. However, this might not be practically
possible for Myanmar at this juncture, when its troops
are concentrated on the border with Thailand. It simply
does not have the requisite numbers to launch
counter-insurgency operations against the Indian rebels,
he points out.
In
the past, India supported the pro-democracy movement in
Myanmar and the pro-democracy activists based on Indian
soil to push Myanmar to respond to its
security interests. Delhi's attempts to pressure the generals backfired.
For instance, when India awarded the Jawaharlal Nehru
Award for International Understanding to NLD leader and
Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in 1993, the generals
struck back. They freed scores of Indian rebels in their
custody, thus negating the gains of "Operation Golden
Bird". When India alleged in December 2001 that two
Pakistani nuclear scientists with alleged links with
al-Qaeda were in Myanmar, Yangon reacted by freeing
about 200 militants it had detained the previous month.
Pressuring Myanmar's generals or rushing them to
act against the rebel camps could therefore be
counterproductive. Much of the groundwork for enhanced
future cooperation has been laid over the years and
strengthened by Than Shwe's visit. And India would need
to move slowly, nudging the generals to step up
cooperation in tackling India's insurgency problem by
offering them incentives. That informed opinion in India
has come around to accepting the need to engage the
generals is evident from the fact that there were fewer
protest demonstrations against Than Shwe's visit than
those seen in the past when other members of the ruling
junta visited India.
In the past, newspaper
press editorials would have reminded the government that
Myanmar's military junta has incarcerated that country's
elected leader. Last week, the critical voices were
muted. India might respect Suu Kyi and want democracy
restored in Myanmar but for now it is willing to do
business with the generals. Right now it believes it
needs the generals more.
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