KARACHI - The first of three stages of
local council elections has been completed in
Pakistan, with the initial results marking victory
for people allied with President General Pervez
Musharraf.
The longer-term implications of
the results, according to analysts, are that
Musharraf can now position himself to further
consolidate his power, and at the same time do
something to answer international pressure for
change in the country.
The
local elections involve all of Pakistan's 110
districts. In the first stage 53 districts voted,
with the remainder due to cast their votes this
week. Then, on September 29 the councilors elected in
the first two rounds will elect
district chiefs. These chiefs have a power
far beyond their local communities: they can influence
elections for both national
and provincial assemblies, which are due in 2007,
the same year that
presidential elections will
be held.
Thus, by gaining support at the
grass-roots level, Musharraf is taking a big step
toward ensuring his political future as a
democratically elected leader, rather than the
military ruler he is now, having seized power in a
coup in 1999.
The results of the first
round caught many people by surprise, with the
political landscape being turned on its head.
The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a
coalition of six religious parties, suffered
badly. However, when one considers that the MMA,
which performed strongly in the last national
elections, is widely seen as a creation of the
establishment as a "pliable" opposition, their
latest poor showing is understandable: it's
payback time.
From North West Frontier
Province, where the MMA single-handedly rules the
provincial assembly, to Balochistan, where it is a
major coalition partner, the MMA lost ground to
pro-Musharraf groups. Although local elections are
not meant to involve political parties, the
allegiances of the victors cannot be ignored.
And the MMA was not the only loser. The
biggest upset involved the Pakistan People's Party
Parliamentarian (PPPP), led by former premier
Benazir Bhutto, in Sindh province, where it lost
many of its strongholds. In Punjab the ruling
pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League swept the
polls.
"Elections in Pakistan are rigged.
Though this is not the official position of the
Pakistan People's Party, but my personal opinion,
it is a prelude for the creation of a new
electoral college in Pakistan, very much on the
pattern of Field Marshal Ayub Khan, to get General
Pervez Musharraf elected as president for a fresh
term as a uniformed president," said the leader of
the opposition in the Upper House of parliament
and deputy secretary general of the PPPP, Raza
Rabbani.
Whether the elections were rigged
or not is a separate issue, but there is no doubt
that the local elections are a milestone for some
important decision-making in the country.
Districts and the cities are the real
administrative units in the country. Provincial
governments and the federal government have their
respective jurisdiction for macro-level
policy-making.
"The new setup is likely to
be used effectively against madrassas
[seminaries], which refuse to reveal their sources
of income or refuse to register [as per a new
diktat]. The idea of an inter-madrassa
board has been approved by all religious groups.
However, there is a proposal that like modern
schools under different boards, madrassas,
under an inter-madrassa board, would also
come under the control of the executive district
officer [education] in their respective districts,
and these officers would be fully empowered to
send education inspectors to keep an eye on the
activities of these madrassas, their
syllabus and their income. At the provincial level
or federal level it is difficult, but at the
district level it is very convenient," said a top
official on condition of anonymity.
Pakistan's madrassas have long been
considered breeding grounds for Islamic extremists
- the Taliban grew out of the country's
madrassas.
Following the first
round of local elections, the religious parties
are now on the back foot, and they will have lost
much of their ability to mobilize the masses,
while giving Musharraf a better chance to push
ahead with more contentious policies.
These include, inevitably, relations with
India. Many on the more extreme side of Pakistan's
body politic resent the rapprochement of the past
year or so with Delhi, as anti-India sentiment has
been a powerful rallying cry ever since the
nations were carved out of the British Raj in
1947.
Both India and Pakistan have pitched
new players into fresh back-channel diplomatic
efforts and brought in moderate and progressive
faces. The immediate result of this is likely to
be the start of a dialogue process between the
Indian government and leaders of the Kashmir
separatist All Parties Hurriyat Conference led by
Mir Waiz Umer Farooq. Such dialogue would
effectively isolate militancy and its supporters
in the Indian-administered section of Kashmir.
This does not mean, though, that Musharraf
is overnight going to abandon the militant cause
in Kashmir - there are still far too many vested
interests in Pakistan's intelligence and military
to do this. (And this regardless of pressure from
India and the international community for
Musharraf to stop cross-border militancy in
Kashmir.)
Last Saturday, Hafiz Mohammed
Saeed of the Jamaatut Dawa (formerly the
now-banned Lashkar-e-Toiba - LeT) visited Karachi
and staged a large gathering behind closed doors
at its Karachi headquarters situated near the
University of Karachi. Hafiz Mohammed Saeed and
the head of the militant wing of the LeT, Zakiur
Rehman, had just met with Musharraf in Rawalpindi,
where they were advised to carry on with their
activities in Kashmir, but at a low level.
Traditional bottlenecks might have
effectively been removed by the local council
elections, but the traditional mindset in the
corridors of power has not changed - at least not
yet.
Syed Saleem Shahzad, Bureau
Chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
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