Race to the death over Kashmir waters
By Haroon Mirani
SRINAGAR - India and Pakistan, in an expensive winner-takes-all race to tap the
power of the Kishenganga river in Kashmir, are separately aiming to build large
hydro-electric projects just 70 kilometers apart on the same fast-flowing water
on their respective sides of the divided region.
India's Kishenganga hydro-power project, which the government last February
priced at US$740 million, involves a 330-megawatt plant in the Gurez Valley.
That is about a third the capacity of the 963MW Neelum-Jhelum project planned
at an estimated cost of US$2.16 billion in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the
project name reflecting the change from Kishenganga to Neelum of the
river's name as it crosses to the Pakistani side of the divided region.
According to the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) signed between the two countries in
1960, the country whose project is completed first will get the complete rights
of this river. Despite the fear of losing billions of dollars and possible
international embarrassment, both sides have taken up the gamble and speeded up
construction work.
Changing climatic conditions add to the pathos of the race. Declining levels of
snowfall and receding glaciers in the Himalayas are reducing the water level in
most Kashmiri rivers.
Indian-administered Kashmir (IAK) sits at the head of major rivers feeding
large parts of Pakistan. Sharing the water was a major problem after the two
countries gained independence from Britain in 1947, until in the World Bank
arbitrated between the two countries resulting in the signing of the IWT.
The pact grants India exclusive rights to the three major southern rivers of
Ravi, Beas and Sutluj, while Pakistan has the rights to three large northern
rivers that first flow through Indian-administered Kashmir - the Indus, Jhelum
and Chenab. The Jhelum and Kishenganga, by then known as the Neelum, join each
other near Muzaffarabad, capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
The treaty has withstood two wars and numerous other conflicts between the two
countries, but now the situation seems to be changing. The growing economies of
both countries and increased energy needs are compelling exploitation of the
rivers to the last drop, even if that means violating the IWT. Pakistan, being
the lower riparian state, faces the disadvantage of geography.
The Indian project involves building a dam and a 16-kilometer diversion
channel, which will change the river's course by 100km. On completion of the
project, the Kishenganga waters will join Wular lake and ultimately the river
Jhelum, still within Indian-administered Kashmir, before flowing on to the
Pakistan-administered side. The diversion will raise the lake's water level as
well as add 52 cubic meters of water to the downstream 480MW Uri I and 240 MW
Uri II hydroelectric project on Indian side.
Pakistan's hydro project, with an underground power station, will be built at
Nauseri, near Muzaffarabad. Pakistan has signed up the help of Chinese
companies, namely the CGGC-CMEC Consortium China, to build the project with the
aim of beating India to completion and securing priority rights for the river.
Pakistan fears that once India's Kishenganga project is complete it will have a
devastating effect on the PAK's own hydro-power plans, the local economy and on
the ecology. The Indian project, according to Pakistan, will curb water flow to
the Pakistani project by 30%, besides affecting the local flora and fauna due
to diversion of water from its original course. Pakistan also alleges that the
project will adversely affect 133,209 hectares of agricultural land in the
Neelum Valley and the Muzaffarabad district.
India recognizes the stakes involved. Federal Minister of Power Jairam Ramesh,
during a recent visit to Kashmir, called the Kishenganga project of
geostrategic importance to India.
"This is an issue with geostrategic and foreign policy implications," Ramesh
said. The power minister said even he was not competent enough to talk on this
sensitive issue.
The countries are already at loggerheads over the Baghlihar hydroelectric power
project. Built by damming the Chenab River in Indian-administered Kashmir, this
project has been controversial since construction began in 1999. The first
phase, involving about half the planned 900 MW capacity, was recently
inaugurated by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
The dispute peaked on August 20, 2008, when authorities in IAK issued a warning
that the entire state would have acute power shortages for the next 48 hours,
due to the filling of the Baghlihar dam. Water flow on the river was halted and
power produced by a hydroelectric project downstream was almost stopped,
causing the outages.
Pakistani monitoring agencies reportedly failed to check on this notification.
Their officials pressed the panic button when levels on the Chenab plunged,
threatening millions of hectares of standing crops. The river feeds water to 21
major canals and irrigates about 2.8 million hectares of arable land in
Pakistan.
Pakistan accused India of holding back large amounts of water for filling the
143-meter high, 317-meter wide dam, with a storage capacity of 15 billion
cusecs, a standard measure. According to authorities in Pakistan, the Chenab's
water flow more than halved to 22,200 cusecs from 55,000 cusecs.
Pakistan says this is a sheer violation of the Indus water treaty, by virtue of
which Indian should not stem water flow below 55,000 cusecs. Pakistan insists
that India compensate it for the loss of over 0.2 million acre feet (MAF), a
measure of large volumes of water.
According to Pakistan, the dam will deprive the country of 321,000 MAF of
water, adversely affecting 5.2 million hectare of irrigated land along the
Chenab and Ravi rivers. "The water shortfall has severely affected 405 canals
and 1,125 distributaries, leaving rice, wheat, sugarcane and fodder crops in
many districts of Pakistan's Punjab and Sindh provinces to wither," said Babar
Hassan Bharwana, Irrigation Secretary of Pakistan's Punjab province.
According to Pakistan Economy Watch (PEW), an economic think-tank, the Indian
water stoppage has inflicted a loss of $1.5 billion on Pakistan with the
prospect of damages growing by the day.
"Over five million acres [2 million hectare] of cotton and sugarcane are facing
devastation and if closure of the Chenab continues, the winter crops,
especially wheat, will be hit, which will have serious political and monetary
consequences," said PEW president Murtaza Mughal.
Warning that the issue of water could trigger war between the two nuclear
powers, he said: "India wanted to destabilize Pakistan and play havoc with the
fate of poor farmers and common people." India has denied it stopped the water
flow to Pakistan.
Pakistan feels that the Baglihar dam and every new project of a similar nature
will add to India's arsenal of hydrological weapons. India plans to build nine
hydro powerhouses on the Chenab to exploit its estimated potential of 16,000MW
of electricity.
The Baglihar water row has a precedent dating to just after independence.
According to Professor Shaista Tabassum of Karachi University, India stopped
its canal waters from flowing into Pakistan on April 1, 1948, leaving about
5.5% of west Pakistan's planted area and nearly 8% of its cultivated area
without irrigation at the start of the crucial summer season. The blockage
bought the countries to the brink of war.
IAK has a total hydroelectric potential of 20,000MW and India is readying to
exploit this in its entirety. The federal government in India meanwhile has
effectively blocked moves by state authorities in IAK to construct large
hydroelectric projects on its own, aware of the potential leverage these offer
in the country's larger dealings with Pakistan.
The state government had earlier secured funding from various international
financial institutions to construct hydroelectric projects, including the
Kishenganga dam, but India refused to give counter guarantees, forcing the
proposal to be handed over to a federal company, the National Hydro Power
Corporation (NHPC).
NHPC, sometimes referred to as the East India Company of Kashmir for the
imperial manner in which it exploits resources in the region, is strongly
disliked as most of its income comes from its Kashmir-based power projects,
while Kashmir itself reels in darkness.
NHPC owns three power projects in Kashmir, generating a total of 1,560MW of
electricity. It is constructing seven more projects with a combined capacity of
2,797MW. Kashmir has a 12% stake in these projects, compared with the 50-50
partnerships formed for such projects in other states. Kashmir on its own has
only managed to construct projects generating 750MW, far short of the demand
for 2,000MW.
The Indus water treaty has been under strain following the accusation by all
the three stakeholders of discriminatory attitudes.
The people of Kashmir are vehemently against this treaty, which according to
them has made them a sacrificial goat. Kashmir annually looses 60 billion
Indian rupees (US$1.3 billion) on account of the prohibitions of the IWT by
virtue of which Kashmir cannot store water for generating electricity or for
irrigation purposes.
All hydro-electric projects in IAK are costly and less efficient "run of the
river" type, which do not alter the existing flow or water levels. An estimated
1.37 million hectares of land is also devoid of irrigation facilities in IAK
due to restrictions imposed by the water treaty.
The Human Rights Society (HRS) of Pakistan last year filed a petition with the
Islamabad High Court urging the government to submit a report on the disruption
of river flow caused by Indian dams and their impact on local agriculture. HRS
chairman Kowkab Iqbal claimed that India was constructing 62 water reservoirs,
including the Baghlihar and Kishenganga dams, besides using 80% of the water in
the Jhelum, creating a drought-like situation in Pakistan.
Pakistan's water availability has decreased to 1,200 cubic meters per person
from 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 and is forecast to plunge to 800 cubic meters
by 2020.
Such is the intensity of the water conflict that former Pakistan prime minister
Chaudhary Shujaat Hussain warned that the water row will lead to all-out war
between the two countries. He called for the immediate amendments of the Indus
Water Treaty to make it relevant for present times.
Haroon Mirani is a Kashmir-based journalist.
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