Page 2 of 2 Sri Lanka wards off Western bullying
By M K Bhadrakumar
India-China rivalry
The countries that are backing Sri Lanka at the UNHRC special session on
Tuesday have a convergence of interest insofar as they oppose the doctrine of
"humanitarian intervention" in sovereign states. China and India have been at
the receiving end in the past on the human-rights issue and have extended
mutual support in warding off UNHRC pressure.
But in the present context, the motives of China and India are complex. The
fact is, China has exploited Sri Lanka's vulnerability to secure the
pre-eminent status of a "steadfast ally". China is building in Hambantota a $1
billion port that it may eventually use as a refueling and docking station for
its navy as it patrols the
Indian Ocean and protects China's sea lanes in the Indian Ocean.
Jane's Defence Weekly has reported on Chinese supplies of ammunition and
ordnance for the Sri Lankan army and navy. The Stockholm International Peace
Foundation says China gifted Sri Lanka six F7 jet fighters last year. Chinese
aid for Sri Lanka touched $1 billion last year. China is presently Sri Lanka's
number one foreign donor, overtaking Japan. (The US and the UK gave measly
amounts of $7.4 million and $1.9 million, respectively.)
India views the Chinese inroads into Sri Lanka with disquiet as part of a broad
move into the Indian Ocean. But India faces an acute dilemma. Delhi hopes to
influence Colombo to seek an early settlement of the Tamil problem, which has
serious implications for India's politics and national security. But its
capacity to cajole the diehard Sinhalese nationalists to compromise and
reconcile suffers as long as China backs Colombo to the hilt. Colombo's defiant
statements to the West also hold a subtle message for Delhi.
If Delhi tries to roll back its substantial political, military and economic
support to Sri Lanka, China will simply step in. The lure of Sri Lanka for
China cannot be overestimated by Delhi. Colombo plays the game beautifully.
Before procuring weapons from China, Colombo first presents the wish list in
Delhi. If Delhi declines, it promptly approaches Beijing. (This was what
happened in the case of Hambantota port, too.)
Therefore, Delhi is unsure about Washington's pressure tactic. It has known
Colombo all through as a tough negotiator - be it on the rights of Indian
fishermen or over Kachativu Island or regarding stateless persons of Indian
origin. Colombo stonewalled for decades all Indian attempts to mediate a
settlement to the Tamil problem.
Great Game in the Indian Ocean
Clearly, it is far too simplistic to portray Sri Lanka as a mere playpen of
China-India rivalry. There is a huge geopolitical backdrop. The US's naval
dominance is declining. On the other hand, China's navy may have more warships
than the US's in the coming decade.
In the March-April issue of Foreign Affairs magazine, noted strategic thinker
and author Robert Kaplan analyzed the power plays in the Indian Ocean. As
Kaplan wrote, the US is "beginning an elegant decline by leveraging the growing
sea power of allies such as India and Japan to balance against China".
To a great extent, the US volte face on Rajapksa's war (after having
been such a strong supporter until quite recently) stems from the strategic
setback it suffered insofar as while the American admirals had been scared away
by Sri Lanka's ethnic strife, China simply moved in. The West finds Rajapaksa
getting too close to China for its comfort. On China's part, however, the
fueling station in Sri Lanka becomes vital for optimally using the series of
port facilities that it has lined up in Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar
connecting the southern Chinese province of Yunnan.
The naval presence in Sri Lanka becomes invaluable for China if the planned
canal across the Isthmus of Kra in Thailand materializes connecting the Indian
Ocean with China's Pacific coast, a project that has the potential to
dramatically shift the balance of power in Asia. Therefore, no matter what it
takes, Beijing will strive to expand its influence in Sri Lanka and help
Colombo ward off US bullying.
But, having said that, the US also has a need for greater cooperation with
China. To quote Kaplan, the US "seizes every opportunity to incorporate China's
navy into international alliances; a US-Chinese understanding at sea is crucial
for the stabilization of world politics in the 21st century". This in turn
creates a compulsion for the US to both act as a "broker" between India and
China and as a moderator of the competition between the two hugely ambitious
powers. As Kaplan put it, even as India and China "bump into each other" in the
Indian Ocean, "the job of managing their peaceful rise will fall on the US Navy
to a significant extent".
Curiously, during a visit to Delhi on May 14, the US Pacific Command chief
Admiral Timothy J Keating dropped a bombshell among the unsuspecting Indians by
revealing that he declined an offer recently from a top-ranking Chinese naval
official for a US-Chinese understanding to split the seas east of Hawaii and
west of Hawaii between the two navies.
Keating went on to say that on his part, he invited China to join the annual
US-India naval exercises codenamed "Malabar Exercises" (which strategists in
Delhi fancy as their exclusive partnership with the US), but China declined,
saying it preferred to be an observer. Kaplan was right in saying, "There will
be surely tensions between the three [US, Chinese, Indian] navies, especially
as the gaps in their relative strength begins to close."
What all this adds up to in immediate terms is that Colombo will be plainly
dismissive of the UNHRC meet on Tuesday. Indeed, its first instinct is to hoot
with derision. The Sinhala establishment is fully aware of Sri Lanka's immense
strategic value in the accelerating power struggle in the Indian Ocean. Sri
Lanka sits on a central theater of global conflict and competition and will
derive leverage to reinforce its sovereignty and independence and its strategic
autonomy.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign
Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka,
Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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