Page 2 of 2 BOOK REVIEW The coming robot wars Wired for War by P W Singer
Reviewed by David Isenberg
And, straight out of Paul Verhoeven's Starship Troopers, is the REV
(Robotic Extraction Vehicle) which will be able to perform complex surgeries on
wounded soldiers. Ironically, many of these systems are supposed to come
together in the US Army's Future Combat Systems program, parts of which were
recently cancelled after Secretary of Defense Robert Gates suggested cutting
the program's ground vehicle and giant cannon components. He argued that they
would not be as useful in the military's fights against insurgencies in such
places as Iraq and Afghanistan.
At sea there are both unmanned surface and underwater vehicles. Already there
is the Spartan Scout, a 30 foot robotic speedboat, packing a .50-caliber
machine gun. Some of the underwater
vehicles mimic marine life, like the Robo-lobster, which detects and destroys
mines close to shore.
But it is in the air that the military robot future is advancing the quickest.
Already, the Reaper, a successor to the Predator, that is four times bigger and
nine times more powerful, is deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. Other drones are
being developed for electronic warfare, submarine hunting, and even air-to-air
combat.
DARPA (Defense Advanced Projects Research Agency) plans to field a VULTURE
(Very-high-altitude, Ultra-endurance, Loitering Theater Unmanned Reconnaissance
Element) drone, which it hopes will be able to stay aloft for five years at a
time. People may recall that when the original Stark Trek series aired
back in the 1960s the USS Enterprise was on a five-year mission.
Lockheed Martin is pitching a robotic High Altitude Airship 25 times larger
than the Goodyear blimp. Such an airship could be parked in the air for years
and serve as spy satellite or even airstrip for other planes and drones (like
the carrier in Sky Captain And The World of Tomorrow).
There are also miniature drones that can eavesdrop into windows or climb up
walls and pipes. Someday such systems may reach the nano scale, working at the
molecular level, resulting in tiny missiles or nanobots destroying a target
from the inside out.
Singer writes that the air force sees at least 45% of its future large bomber
fleet being able to operate without humans abroad.
And for fighter jocks, like the ones Tom Cruise played in Top Gun, the
news is grim. Already there UCAVs (Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles), such as
Boeing's X-45 or Northrup Grumman's X-47, which can land on an aircraft
carrier. The X-45 was, in fact, so threatening to the US Air Force's newest
manned fighter planes, F-222 and F-35, that the X-45 was canceled, although
some believe it still lives on in the classified "black" budget.
Robot systems are also being envisioned for use in space. The X-41 Common Aero
Vehicle is a cross between an intercontinental ballistic missile and the space
shuttle. It would give the United States the ability to crush someone anywhere
in the world on 30 minutes notice.
And, as Singer points out, given the increasing number of private companies who
are developing space travel capabilities the day may come when they have the
ability to conduct military operations on their own. At that point the current
private security contractors will have to change their acronym to private space
contractors.
All of this is fascinating, as Spock would say, but it poses profound
implications for human control over war. Policymakers always like to toss off
sound bites about humans being "in the loop" but there is no reason to think
that is always true at present and far more reason to think it will be far less
so in the future. In fact we started removing men from the loop in World War 2
with the Norden bombsight and the gap has been growing steadily since. As
Singer notes, it is lip service, not reality.
Already we have systems like the Aegis Defense system aboard US Navy warships
which can operate in an autonomous mode, not needing human authorization to
fire. And the sheer amount of sensor data that robotic systems generate will
certainly be beyond the ability of human operators to assimilate, no matter how
enhanced they are with neural implants or other technology.
Not to mention that the imperatives of warfare are going to make robot autonomy
inevitable, if only because once a robot is fired at it is going to need to be
able to fire back, without waiting for human approval.
By the way, that Terminator-like humanoid robot on the battlefield future is
not far off. Scientists predict 2020 while soldiers predict 2025.
All of this raises interesting questions. Will robots be vulnerable in the
future? Can their communications links and operating systems be hacked? And, if
so, what then?
Or looking at Iraq and Afghanistan are robot systems really going to be
effective in fighting insurgencies, where cultural awareness is as important as
destructive power.
And, as the United States increasingly relies on robots what happens when other
states and non-state actors acquire their own? Already UAVs are widely traded
around the world. And, in Iraq, insurgents have captured US robots and used
them back against US soldiers.
In an e-mail Singer wrote this is:
Very much a growing field. The
Predator and new Reaper variant for instance is being bought by pretty much
half of North Atlantic Treaty Organization [nations]. Turkey just put in to buy
to use against Kurds for instance.
So what happens when other
countries which are even more advanced in electronics and robotics, like Japan,
start investing in military robotics?
As Singer notes the US is not the only player in this. And, as an early
adopter, the US may well be surpassed by other countries which piggyback off US
developments.
Because so much of robotic development is based on open source information
their increased use may well hasten the global redistribution of power; not
exactly the result that those hoping the use of military robots will allow
continued US military hegemony.
And how does the US military field enough scientifically and technologically
adept personnel, when it has trouble attracting sufficient high school
graduates, which was the case until the recent recession eased its recruiting
problems.
These are just a few of the questions Singer explores and it takes you barely
past the halfway point.
It is worth remembering that in the history of military technologies those who
have wanted to develop something simply because they can have always won over
those who questioned whether it should be developed.
Singer makes it quite clear that the same is occurring with military robotics.
If one walks into a lab where such systems are being developed one is going to
be greeted with a shrug or a yawn. Right now, such systems are being developed
in large part because doing so is "freaking cool".
Currently there is already a dangerous divide between the American public and
its military. What happens when the fighting is increasingly done by robots
operated by "cubicle warriors"? Will policymakers find it even easier to go to
war?
Putting all other questions aside, Singer believes that Murphy's Law "Anything
that can go wrong, will - at the worst possible moment" also applies to robots.
Given the stakes, that alone is sufficient reason to be having a global debate
about the subject. The fact that we are not is itself frightening.
But for anyone interesting in having the debate Singer's book is a must-read.
Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century by
P W Singer, Penguin Press, 2009. ISBN-10: 1594201986. Price US$29.95, 512
pages.
David Isenberg is a researcher at the International Peace Research
Institute, Oslo. He is an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a research
fellow at the Independent Institute, a US Navy veteran, and the author of a new
book, Shadow Force: Private Security Contractors in Iraq. The views
expressed are his own. His e-mail is sento@earthlink.net.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
