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INTERVIEW
Missing the point on Myanmar
The international community continues to pursue the wrong path in Myanmar, argues Burmese historian Thant Myint-U, as United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon begins his visit to the country on Friday. Instead of focusing on interlocution between the military junta and the opposition, it's the ongoing civil war and devastated economy that should first be addressed. Lost opportunities, he says, are legion. - Charles McDermid (Jul 3,'09)

BOOK REVIEW
Strength and dishonor
Building the Tatmadaw by Maung Aung Myoe The incredible staying power of Myanmar's regime is thoughtfully explored in this revealing, if somewhat flawed, study of the Tatmadaw, or armed forces. With insights into the military's doctrine, strategy and organization, this is a must-read for anyone seeking to unravel the mysteries of the junta's mindset. - David Scott Mathieson (Jul 3,'09)



China's rogue regimes play up
North Korea's willingness to export high-tech weapons and know-how to Myanmar and other reclusive, anti-Western regimes has raised regional security concerns and could launch a new Southeast Asian arms race. If Pyongyang is indeed helping Myanmar achieve its nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions, China may shut the door on its troublesome client states. - Brian McCartan (Jul 2,'09)

The contested rebirth of Joseph Estrada
Despite his links to late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, conviction over kickbacks from gambling rackets and alleged involvement in a double murder, deposed Philippine president Joseph Estrada appears on the verge of a remarkable comeback. He will face tricky legal and political challenges should he decide to run for president, but he still enjoys mass support. - Joel D Adriano (Jul 2,'09)

Yudhoyono rides anti-corruption wave
Already ahead in opinion polls, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has received an unexpected boost to his campaign for July 8 elections in the conviction of a relative on corruption charges. The public feels that if the father-in-law of the president's son can be convicted, then Yudhoyono's anti-graft drive must be on the right track. - Patrick Guntensperger (Jul 1,'09)

THE ROVING EYE
Superfat hits Asia
In 2007, diabetes affected 46.5 million adults in Southeast Asia. By 2025, it will strike more than 80 million. At the same time, Asia is getting fat - leading to the specter of "diabesity" - the deadly coupling of diabetes and obesity. Now, a group of global specialists has gathered in Thailand to spread the alarm to doctors all over Asia. - Pepe Escobar (Jul 1,'09)

People's power and manipulated masses
Though comparisons between the Philippines and Thailand are often overshadowed by differences, similarities between these presidential and parliamentary democracies abound. Both are home to thriving civil societies - but with a history of political instability and power dominated by traditional elites. - Ava Patricia C Avila and Simon Roughneen (Jun 30,'09)

US lifts curb on Cambodia, Laos trade
Trade between the United States and Cambodia and Laos may benefit as Washington lets the US Export-Import Bank become involved in supporting deals. The move may also help to counterbalance China's growing presence in the area. - Brian McCartan (Jun 29,'09)

ASIA HAND
Thai government's great gambit
Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij this week put forth Thailand's largest-ever fiscal push - a program that constitutes US$44 billion and more than 6,000 different projects. He and his Democrat party aren't afraid to step on a few toes to get it done, the 44-year-old former banker tells Asia Times Online, but if that happens, it'll be done with "customary politeness". - Shawn W Crispin (Jun 26,'09)

Reality off the rails in Phnom Penh
Cambodia's ruling party and acerbic Prime Minister Hun Sen aren't taking too kindly to criticism these days. A wave of bizarre denials and defamation lawsuits now run the risk of making martyrs of otherwise unremarkable politicians, alienating Western donor nations and scaring off the foreign business community. Cambodia, it seems, doth protest too much. - Sam Campbell
(Jun 25,'09)

New model needed in Malaysia
Malaysia's export-driven economy has been battered by the collapse in global trade, with recession looming in the next quarter and unemployment spiking. Prime Minister Razak Najib has formed a national economic council tasked with charting a new economic model for the country, but some fear it is too little, too late. - Chee Yoke Heong (Jun 25,'09)

A UN snub: Two regimes in a tub
Trying to fathom the mystery of the Kang Nam I, an aging North Korean cargo vessel allegedly stacked with weapons and steaming towards Myanmar, has become a global obsession. The ship is being shadowed by an American destroyer for possible violations of a United Nations resolution against Pyongyang's nuclear test, and the world is watching. The Kang Nam's cargo might be unknown, but its mission is surely to churn the waters of regional diplomacy. - Donald Kirk (Jun 25,'09)

Shoot first, talk later in Myanmar
Bloody battles are raging in Myanmar's Karen State, with government troops and their ethnic allies trying to unseat the stubborn Karen National Liberation Army from its base along the Thai-Myanmar border. As casualties skyrocket and thousands of refugees flee, analysts say the oddly timed offensive is really meant to divert attention from the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi and to lock down the restive area ahead of next year's proposed elections. - Brian McCartan (Jun 24,'09)

Thin loyalties in Malaysia
The leaders of Malaysia's opposition group, the People's Alliance, have slammed the door on attempts by the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition to lure one of their parties into a "unity government". After strong showings in national and local elections, the rejection is a further sign that the opposition is overcoming ethnic and religious divides. - Anil Netto (Jun 23,'09)

All aboard the Trans-Asian Railway
The Trans-Asian Railway Network, a decades-old vision to link the vast expanses of Asia by rail to accelerate trade and integration, has been boosted with the passing of a key inter-governmental agreement. The proposed 114,000-kilometer link, delayed for years by geopolitics and war, is a step closer. (Jun 22,'09)

COMMENT
Vietnam arrests a pragmatist
The arrest last week of prominent attorney Le Cong Dinh on charges of spreading anti-government propaganda has drawn unwanted international scrutiny to Vietnam's legal system. By penalizing Dinh's arguments for free expression, including those uttered in court, the state is harassing the whole legal sector and leaving the nation defenseless. - Roby Alampay (Jun 19,'09)

Malaysia tries for economic reset
Collapsing export markets and a declining economy presented Prime Minister Najib Razak with a tough opening challenge to his term in office this spring. Yet Malaysia's stock market has shown strong gains, which could continue thanks to an economic stimulus package - and a rejig of the benchmark index. - R M Cutler (Jun 18,'09)

Instant karma in Myanmar
It's well known that Myanmar's ruling junta practices a singular blend of "astrology politics" and that the populace entertains serious superstitions of its own. Now, the karmic kickback from the recent collapse of a 2,300-year-old sacred temple seems to point to Senior General Than Swe, whose recent acts - such as commissioning a jade Buddha in his image - have become increasingly bizarre. - Sudha Ramachandran and Swe Win (Jun 16,'09)

Golkar fights for democratic relevance
As it struggles to shed historic links to the Suharto regime and internal ruptures weaken its already waning presidential bid, Indonesia's once all-powerful Golkar party is in trouble. Its candidates are widely expected to lose on July 7 and all its supporters can hope for is that a dynamic new leader can at least secure some influential cabinet posts. - Patrick Guntensperger(Jun 17,'09)

Con job in the Philippines
Manila's tabloids are having a blast with the silly acronyms designating recent measures aimed at changing the 1987 constitution. Among the best are CHA-CHA, for "charter change", and CON-ASS, for constituent assembly. But behind the snarky headlines is a serious debate: has the Philippine government's penchant for playing fast and loose with the rules gone too far? - Simon Roughneen (Jun 16,'09)

Cambodia's last frontier falls
Once touted by eco-tourism travelers as a picture-perfect jungle filled with pristine forests teeming with wildlife, Cambodia's northeastern Ratanakiri province has been transformed into a graveyard of fields and tree stumps. Officials say they are doing everything they can to protect the area, but forces driving resource extraction and poaching are too powerful to resist. - Stephen Kurczy (Jun 15,'09)

Crisis-hit Singapore tightens grip
Singapore's opposition leaders say anti-terror legislation passed in April was a ruse to extend the government's strict control of political activities and press freedoms. The financial crisis has shaken the ruling party's claims of providing economic growth, and some say the law was designed to forestall any anti-government response. - Tony Sitathan (Jun 12,'09)

INTERVIEW
Moral authority in Myanmar
If Aung San Suu Kyi is the saintly face of Myanmar's pro-democracy movement, 80-year-old U Win Tin is its battle-hardened elder statesman. The poet and former journalist was once the country's longest-serving political prisoner; since his release in 2008 he has worked to reorganize and re-energize the opposition. Hours before the stop-start case of Suu Kyi was delayed until June 26, he spoke to Asia Times Online about the trial's truth and consequences. - Charles McDermid (Jun 12,'09)

China's rise stirs Vietnam's anxiety
Vietnam, having long eyed China with suspicion, is once again uneasy. Not only is China bringing its own workers to labor in Vietnam-based projects and flooding the market with ultra-cheap goods, it is also intensifying claims over islands that Vietnam considers its own - in effect awakening painful memories of 1,000 years of domination. - Anh Le Tran (Jun 11,'09)

Neo-liberalism a dirty Indonesian word
Indonesia's presidential frontrunner, the incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, seemed to have chosen his running mate well in a respected Bank Indonesia governor. Now the opposition claims the governor's "neo-liberal Western perspective" will erode Indonesia's sovereignty and wreck its economy. Beyond the philosophic debates, Yudhoyono is still hitting all the right notes ahead of July 8. - Megawati Wijaya (Jun 10,'09)

Old and new massacres in Thailand
The killing of at least 10 worshippers at a mosque on Monday represents the biggest daily death toll in Thailand's southernmost provinces since a government crackdown began five years ago. Recent bloodshed and a controversial new ruling on a fatal 2004 incident suggest that neither increased development budgets nor a military "surge" will end the insurgency anytime soon. - Brian McCartan (Jun 9,'09)

Obama's hearts and minds trifecta
In the race for Muslim hearts and minds, United States President Barack Obama has chosen his first two destinations well in Turkey and Egypt, and scored points for eloquently balancing sensitivity with some frank truths. The next likely stop is his childhood home, Indonesia, where he can point to a successful example of moderate Islam being combined with liberal democracy. - Donald K Emmerson (Jun 8,'09)

Jury's out on Myanmar's election
As the trial of Aung San Suu Kyi heads to a predictable finish next week in Yangon, the opposition movement is confronted with a bleak political future. After the trial, the next benchmark decision will be whether or not to participate in the 2010 general elections. For its part, the junta is already stumping in rural areas and filling its future offices with furniture. - Swe Win (Jun 5,'09)

Khmer Krom hero rises from the delta
The plight of Tim Sakhorn, a Buddhist monk who fled Cambodia after being detained in Vietnam, has brought global attention to his marginalized ethnic group, the Khmer Krom. The group, which this week commemorated the 60th anniversary of its lands being ceded by colonial France to Vietnam, says it is stuck between a hostile Hanoi government and a motherland that has deserted it. - Craig Guthrie (Jun 5,'09)

AN ATOL INVESTIGATION
A hard reign continues in Myanmar
The continued detention and ongoing trial of the world's most famous prisoner of conscience, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, have renewed international scrutiny on the thousands of other dissidents currently in jail in Myanmar. Through a series of interviews in refugee camps along the Thai border, it becomes clear that the military junta is only tightening its stranglehold over its people. - Rajeshree Sisodia (Jun 5,'09)


Agrarian dystopia in the Philippines

A decades-old reform program in the Philippines that aimed to tackle poverty and a communist insurgency through land redistribution has been extended, despite questionable results. Its opponents say it has achieved scant poverty reduction and given rise to petty landlords who abuse cheap labor or sell off land for a quick profit. - Joel D Adriano (Jun 4,'09)

Singapore faces long haul back
The 60% three-month uptick in Singapore's benchmark stock index may suggest the export-dependent Lion City is well on the way to recovery. Yet Citigroup expects output to reach pre-recession levels only by the end of 2010. Given the fragility of "green shoots" in the West, even that forecast looks optimistic. - R M Cutler (Jun 4,'09)

Malaysia's opposition on a roll
Since last year's general election, Malaysia's opposition People's Alliance has made a comeback, chalking up its fifth by-election win out of six with a weekend victory in Penang. Now that the ruling Barisan Nasional coalition is faced with growing economic pressure and a resurgent opposition, there are fears it may resort to more authoritarian measures. - Anil Netto (Jun 2,'09)

Vietnam farmers fall to bauxite bulldozers
Advanced plans to mine bauxite deposits in Vietnam's Central Highlands face growing opposition, even from within the companies involved and including famed general Vo Nguyen Giap. That is too late to save tea and coffee farmers in the targeted areas. (Jun 1,'09)

ASEAN, EU lock horns over Myanmar
The European Union used its summit this week with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to pressure Myanmar over the widely criticized trial of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. But ASEAN has refused to be drawn into open condemnation of the pariah state, insisting this will only lead to its further isolation. - Stephen Kurczy (May 29,'09)

Hmong caught in repatriation trap
The withdrawal of Medecins Sans Frontieres from a busy refugee camp in Thailand followed a report from the group charging the Thai military with pressuring thousands of ethnic Hmong refugees to renounce protection and return to Laos. The Lao and Thai governments say the refugees are economic migrants, but the returning Hmong fear punishment and even execution. - Brian McCartan (May 29,'09)

China drawn into Myanmar's border strife
The biggest supporter of Myanmar's military junta is China, but Beijing is also highly influential with the ethnic ceasefire groups in the country's northern border region. Now, the junta is goading these groups into transforming their armies into border guard militias - a move that could bring civil war. Beijing is avoiding the Aung San Suu Kyi drama, but in northern Myanmar, it has no choice but to engage. - Brian McCartan (May 27,'09)

Indonesian candidates fail vice tests
All three presidential hopefuls in July's election have chosen the wrong running mate. They've embarrassed themselves, insulted the public and put the nation's best interests at risk: politics as usual in Indonesia. - Gary LaMoshi (May 26,'09)

Khmer Rouge court's identity crisis
As the trial of the Khmer Rouge's former chief of secret police reopens, the man who famously uncovered him working as a Christian aid worker says too few Cambodians are aware of the tribunal as international donors have failed to fund outreach efforts. Allegations of political interference and corruption also threaten the court's all-important legacy. - Stephen Kurczy (May 22,'09)

Myanmar's opposition vs Goliath
The bizarre arrest last week of Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi has left Myanmar's pro-democracy movement outraged and calling for action. Opposition leaders and exile groups want stiffer sanctions and tough talk from the international community, but so far they've only received the latter. Meanwhile, any hopes that the planned 2010 election would break a grinding political stalemate have been dashed. - Charles McDermid and Swe Win (May 21,'09)

Trial by fire inside Insein Prison
In 1998, a 20-year-old university student stood in the same court and before the same judge that Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi faces now. He was charged with anti-government activities and received a 21-year sentence inside two of the military regime's most infamous prisons. This is his story. - Swe Win (May 21,'09)

The fool and The Lady of the lake
She is an imprisoned opposition Nobel Prize winner and the hope of a nation. He is a Morman from Missouri on some quixotic spiritual mission. When he swam ashore at her guarded home last week in Yangon, their fates were bound together forever. Now pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Vietnam vet John Yettaw are in prison and the future of Myanmar may be on the line. - Brian McCartan (May 15,'09)

Hard graft for Indonesia
The arrest of Indonesia's Corruption Eradication Commission chief in a murder inquiry threatens to undermine President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's anti-graft drive, an integral part of his campaign for the July presidential elections. It has also presented politicians with an opportunity to water down the powers of the trailblazing anti-corruption body. - Katherine Demopoulos (May 15,'09)

How to bridge Thailand’s divide
Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, particularly in contrast with most of his predecessors, seems a poster boy for liberal and republican values. Now he has his hands full with an economic collapse and deep political divisions. Whether or not Abhisit can maintain power, much less his bearings, as he swims with the sharks of Thai politics, is the biggest question facing the kingdom. - Danny Unger (May 14,'09)

Power plays in the Philippines
There are indications that former journalist and current Philippine Vice President Noli de Castro is breaking ranks from the scandal-plagued administration of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to vie for the top spot in next year's elections. If the Arroyo camp loses de Castro to another party, experts predict a drastic realignment of power. - Joel D Adriano (May 13,'09)

Blowback on Myanmar's cyclone disaster
The international aid community's outreach in Myanmar's Irrawaddy Delta in the deadly aftermath of last year's Cyclone Nargis has not resulted in greater openness, but rather represents the latest example of the junta's well-worn strategy for tightening its grip on power. After almost two decades of confrontation and sanctions, measures to effectively engage the generals remain elusive. - Brian McCartan (May 12,'09)

Indonesia scrambles for a president
Despite the triumph of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party in Indonesia's legislative elections, horse-trading will ensure a situation of flux right up to the presidential elections in July. And as always, political expediency rather than ideological commitments will play a big part. - Patrick Guntensperger (May 12,'09)

Democracy by force in Malaysia
Any semblance of democratic normalcy in Malaysia vanished this week when police entered the Perak state assembly and dragged away the opposition speaker so that a ruling party candidate could take his place. Less than one month on the job, Prime Minister Razak Najib has shown a willingness to use force to ensure his political way and stirred doubt about his claimed reform agenda. - Anil Netto (May 8,'09)

CIA's Lao ally faces 'outrageous' charge
In a California court case that reads more like a B-movie script than a real-life international investigation, defense attorneys have moved to dismiss charges that a group of American citizens purchased a cache of weapons in a plot to overthrow the Lao government. Lawyers claim the group, which includes legendary Hmong CIA operative Vang Pao, was framed by the same government that Pao once fought for. - Nelson Rand (May 7,'09)

ASIA HAND
My friend is my enemy
in Thailand

The show of force by supporters of exiled premier Thaksin Shinawatra last month has set Thai politics on a new trajectory, with the ruling Democrats now expected to call for new elections by mid-2010. In the meantime, if the coalition government returns to old-fashioned politicking it could lead to more demonstrations in the months ahead. A new political order may be starting to emerge. - Shawn W Crispin (May 6,'09)

Myanmar opposition weighs options
In a rare and risky pre-election summit, leaders of Myanmar's largest opposition party have tested the political climate by declining to announce whether the party will take part in next year's general elections. If the ruling junta wants an inclusive-looking election, it may be forced to accede to opposition demands - such as the unconditional release of more than 2,000 political prisoners. (May 6,'09)

On the trail of Thaksin in Cambodia
Koh Kong, a sleepy, lawless border province once known as Cambodia's Wild West, could have been the perfect place for exiled former Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra to hole up. But locals find the frenzied speculation that he has been plotting unrest in Thailand from there laughable. Despite his links to the Cambodian premier and prior business interests in the area, they say it could be a case of mistaken identity. - Stephen Kurczy (May 5,'09)

Clean-up goal for Pertamina
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is turning his anti-corruption drive on Indonesian oil and gas giant Pertamina, once a byword for corruption and mismanagement and still struggling to shuffle off old ways. One-time Mobil and Halliburton operator Karen Agustiawan will lead the charge. - Patrick Guntensperger (May 4,'09)

Insurgents defy Thai military surge
A new wave of deadly violence has swept through Thailand's restive south, with arson attacks, roadside bombs and ambushes on military patrols killing some 12 soldiers and civilians. A coordinated offensive, the attacks seem timed to coincide with the fifth anniversary of an alleged mosque massacre by Thai soldiers, and come just as the army was claiming a troop surge had "dramatically improved" the situation. - Brian McCartan (Apr 30,'09)

Najib takes a brick from the wall
Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, barely a month into the job, has made a dramatic change in long-standing government policy by relaxing foreign investment rules, including those requiring ethnic-Malay involvement. Cynics remain unconvinced that he has truly headed calls for a more open economy. - Simon Roughneen (Apr 30,'09)

A helping Chinese hand
China's US$25 billion aid and credit package for the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations is part of its strategy to strengthen already booming economic ties with the region through soft power. By wooing developing nations such as Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia with strings-free aid, China can also secure valuable infrastructure and natural resource deals - and usurp American influence in the region. - Brian McCartan (Apr 29,'09)

SPEAKING FREELY
Thai lesson for the US
The efforts by Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to pick up the pieces after his country's painful experience of the Asia financial crisis of 1997 stand as an example to the US in its present predicament. - Joseph Harris (Apr 28,'09)

Obama's clock ticks down on Myanmar
The generals of Myanmar are clearly aware the international community has a fragmented approach to their pariah administration and have leveraged divergent views to their advantage. A big test comes next month, when United States President Barack Obama will decide between sticking with tough and longstanding sanctions, or a more conciliatory policy towards the country his predecessor called an "outpost of tyranny". - Brian McCartan (Apr 24,'09)

Fudging figures in the Philippines
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo predicts that unemployment will not breach the double-digit threshold this year, despite the Philippines taking a battering from the world's economic meltdown. Critics claim the government is purposefully understating a massive economic problem to avoid a ticking political timebomb. - Joel D Adriano (Apr 24,'09)

The roots of Thailand's tension
The Thai political crisis reflects powerful forces that are reshaping the landscape of parts of Southeast Asia. Increased levels of education and awareness, economic development and new technologies are all helping to bring demanding new voices into politics, often threatening urban elites and traditional arrangements. - Charles E Morrison (Apr 22,'09)

Cambodia, Vietnam re-affirm their vows
As Cambodia's relations with Thailand plummet due to a deadly dispute over a temple and the latter's political upheaval, Phnom Penh's ties with Vietnam - the nation that toppled the Khmer Rouge - are improving. But not all Cambodians are happy with this cozying up to their historic enemy, and some say "big brother" Hanoi has been pulling the strings for decades. - Stephen Kurczy (Apr 22,'09)

Racism and retrenchment for Filipinos
Some call it satire, but Filipinos aren't laughing at articles poking fun at the nation's army of overseas workers. In the latest incident, thousands of workers took to the streets in Hong Kong to express their concern that the printed word may turn into real abuse and discrimination. - Cher S Jimenez (Apr 21,'09)

Falling and rising stars in Indonesia
Preliminary polls indicate that incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will win another five-year mandate in Indonesia's July elections. If so, it would likely come for a second time at the expense of Megawati Sukarnoputri, daughter of independence leader Sukarno, whose political alliances are proving a hard sell with voters who remember her calls for reform. - Patrick Guntensperger (Apr 20,'09)

Shooting the messenger in Thailand
Thailand's spiraling political conflict took a violent turn on Friday when hitmen with assault rifles wounded Sondhi Limthongkul, a media mogul and prominent protest group leader. Some fear the assassination attempt indicates that supporters of exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and their opponents aim to mete out justice as they see fit on the country's increasingly mean streets. - Shawn W Crispin (Apr 17,'09)

ASEAN's Pattaya problem
Summitry calls for decorum - serene images of leaders greeting distinguished guests. But bedlam came closer to describing the scene in Pattaya when Thai protesters stormed the venue of the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and forced its cancelation. The regional organization has lost major face, and the routing of Pattaya bodes ill for prospects of democracy in Southeast Asia. - Donald K Emmerson (Apr 17,'09)

ASIA HAND
Smoke, mirrors and lies
Foreign reporters have perpetuated the notion that Thailand's is a rural poor versus urban elite struggle, with exiled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra the champion of the former. The conflict is more accurately portrayed as a struggle between competing elites, both able to mobilize disruptive masses and jockeying for position in the next round of a dangerously escalating and wholly unresolved conflict. - Shawn Crispin (Apr 16,'09)

A tech-savvy rebellion in Thailand
One outcome of the unrest in Bangkok was proof that leaders in exile can use Internet-based communications devices and video links to stir the masses. The era of ousted leaders using letters and smuggled audio cassettes - and governments silencing their opponents through exile - seems to be over. - Sreeram Chaulia (Apr 16,'09)

China wary of US-Myanmar 'detente'
Attempts by the United States to regain influence in Myanmar will inevitably pose a threat to China, which has taken advantage of past US hostility to the isolationist state to cultivate deep economic and political ties. The power balance in Southeast Asia could also be upset, leading to conflict reminiscent of darker days. - Jian Junbo(Apr 16,'09)

Family feud in the Philippines
Pardons granted by Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to soldiers convicted for the killing of opposition leader Benigno Aquino 26 years ago are seen as a move to rehabilitate the Marcos family. The wife and children of former strongman Ferdinand Marcos have declared their political ambitions, giving some top businessmen cause for concern. - Joel D Adriano (Apr 15,'09)

ASIA HAND
A battle won in Thailand's 'war'
The red-shirted supporters of the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship have been driven from the streets of Bangkok after several days of chaos in which they brought the capital to a standstill. The threat remains, though, of their "final showdown" with the forces of the aristocracy and the establishment, with serious implications for Thailand's battered and bruised democracy. - Shawn W Crispin (Apr 14,'09)

Hand-to-hand fights in the streets
The Thai capital's descent into chaos was marked by pitched battles in the streets between Molotov-wielding anti-government red shirts and Thai army regulars backed by angry residents taking matters into their own hands. As the battlefield haze clears, it appears that the protest movement will pay the highest price. - Charles McDermid and Jakkapun Kaewsangthong (Apr 14,'09)

The plummet of a summit
Protesters made a right meal of getting a regional meeting in Thailand's resort city of Pattaya called off. After breaking through the glass doors of the venue's plush hotel they stormed upstairs - where nothing was happening. They then stormed into conference rooms and banquet halls, before realizing they were in the wrong building. In the end the bemused mob got what it wanted - while the security forces got some five-star grub under their belts. - Charles McDermid (Apr 14,'09)

Indonesia's Kalla faces toughest test
After legislative elections that raised more questions than they answered, Golkar party chairman and Vice President Jusuf Kalla needs to balance his presidential ambitions, his party's needs, and political realities. - Gary LaMoshi (Apr 14,'09)

Malaysia's Najib fails his first test
The change in prime minister last week from Abdullah Badawi to Najib Razak did little to keep Malaysia's ruling coalition from losing two critical by-elections on Tuesday. The losses are a shattering blow for Najib, whose liberal words must be matched by democratic actions if the Barisan Nasional is to avoid losing outright in the next general election. - Anil Netto (Apr 8,'09)

Holes in Indonesia's mining law
Indonesia's revamped mining law failed to satisfy many overseas investors keen to dig more big holes in the mineral-rich archipelago. As efforts continue for more changes, exceptions include Indian outfits not wasting time in setting their excavators to work. - Tony Sitathan (Apr 8,'09)

A three-legged race in Indonesia
Three parties are expected to dominate Thursday's legislative polls in Indonesia. They are led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Vice President Jusuf Kalla and ex-president Megawati Sukarnoputri. Regardless of who comes out on top, intense political horse trading in the runup to July's presidential elections is guaranteed. - Megawati Wijaya (Apr 8,'09)

Mahathir pins blame on bankers
Former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, famed for slamming the door on International Monetary Fund prescriptions during the Asia financial crisis of 1997-98, sees one important lesson from the present global chaos - don't trust anyone, least of all bankers. - Rita Payne (Apr 7,'09)

Manhunt is on for Mekong Robin Hood
Naw Kham, an ethnic Shan rebel and riverine crime boss, is now wanted dead or alive by four governments for his brazen extortion rackets and lucrative drug trafficking in the notorious Golden Triangle. Yet his daring hit-and-run attacks on unpopular Chinese commercial interests have made him a folk hero with the region's impoverished residents. - Brian McCartan (Apr 6,'09)

ASIA HAND
Seeing red in Thailand
Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra predict that 300,000 "red shirts" will converge on Bangkok next week in what they refer to as a final showdown between democracy and aristocracy. Yet some analysts believe the ratcheting up of tensions is more a reflection of Thaksin's growing desperation than a show of political strength. - Shawn W Crispin (Apr 3,'09)

China secures Myanmar energy route
China has secured an important alternative route for its Middle East oil supplies, bypassing the Malacca Strait, with an agreement with Myanmar to pump oil and gas from the Bay of Bengal to Yunnan province. The energy coup, while benefiting Myanmar's generals, will doubtless upset India. - Sudha Ramachandran (Apr 2,'09)

Fraud threat clouds Indonesian polls
Revelations that 27% of the names on the official voters' list in last year's East Java gubernatorial elections were fraudulent threaten to make next week's legislative and July's presidential polls the rockiest of Indonesia's decade-old democratic era. Making matters worse, the government is reluctant to address the problem. - Patrick Guntensperger (Apr 2,'09)

God and genocide in Cambodia
Pol Pot's torturer-in-chief this week apologized at Cambodia's Khmer Rouge tribunal for overseeing torture and mass murder on a grand scale, but his higher-ranking fellow detainees still profess their innocence. As a born-again Christian the chief jailer views confession as a path to atonement, while Buddhist cadres see denial as a way to escape karmic retribution. - Stephen Kurczy.(Apr 1,'09)

A reversal for Indonesia's Islamist party
Indonesia's Prosperous Justice Party was the most popular party in Jakarta in 2004. With its leader chosen as parliamentary speaker, it seemed poised to unify the Islamist vote. However, heading into next week's legislative elections, PKS seems likely to lead the way of historic low totals for religious parties. - Gary LaMoshi (Mar 31,'09)

Indonesia's dark-horse candidate
Prabowo Subianto, a military man and former son-in-law of dictator Suharto, has emerged as a formidable force ahead of Indonesia's elections next month by running a slick campaign burnished by a billionaire brother, high-profile foreign advisors and loads of populist outreach. Yet wooing farmers and fishermen has done little to assuage activists who recall Prabowo's alleged darker side. - Katherine Demopoulos (Mar 30,'09)

Challenges mount for Malaysia's Najib
There is a sense of foreboding among activists and dissidents that Malaysia's premier-in-waiting, Najib Razak, and his new administration will resort to authoritarian measures to affirm their grip on power. Ominous signs of a return to "Mahathirism" are already evident in disrupted opposition rallies, blocked websites and suspended opposition newspapers. Najib's first big test will come in hotly contested by-elections on April 7. - Anil Netto (Mar 27,'09)

BOOK REVIEW
Light on a dark conflict
Tearing Apart the Land by Duncan McCargo
Whether driven by a liberal sympathy for the Malay Muslims or by a security focused concern for the spread of radical Islam, research on Thailand's violent Malay Muslim separatist movement remains enmeshed in an ideological divide. While this book clearly falls on the more sympathetic side, it shines new light on one of the region's darkest conflicts. - Jason Johnson (Mar 27,'09)

China, Philippines stoke island tensions
New moves by the Philippines to stake a maritime claim to some of the hotly contested Spratly islands have angered Vietnam and China, with the latter promptly sending a patrol ship to the area. The Philippines says there is nothing to worry about, but even its opposition lawmakers have their fears. - Joel D Adriano (Mar 26,'09)

Singapore in straitened times
Singapore's plummeting revenues as the world's consumers put away their credit cards are prompting the export-driven island to rethink the economic model that has made it so wealthy. But with a population of only 4 million, the options are limited. (Mar 26,'09)

Marcos family re-stakes its claims
The family of former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos is tapping top government connections to help restore the political clout and economic fortune that was drained after their father lost power. Led by only son Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr, the family's presence may well be felt in the 2010 elections, with ex-first lady Imelda possibly running for mayor of Manila. - Al Labita (Mar 25,'09)

Indonesia's Obama, Washington's Indonesia
Indonesian enthusiasm for United States President Barack Obama is real and widespread, and a source of inspiration for many, from politicians to the man in the street. In the US, policy influentials are using President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Indonesia to justify hopes and allay fears that are distinctively American in character. These perceptions are important as the countries try to work out a "comprehensive partnership". But mutual admiration can only go so far. - Donald K Emmerson (Mar 24,'09)

Raucous Indonesia rolls to the polls
Campaign season for Indonesia's elections kicked off last week, with traditional dancers and rock bands taking to the stage at mass rallies and banner-waving motorcyclists clogging Jakarta's already gridlocked streets. With simplistic anti-corruption pledges and victory shouts taking precedence over real issues, the rowdy rallies take on a special significance. - Patrick Guntensperger (Mar 23,'09)

Democratic permutations in Indonesia
Although July will mark just the second time Indonesians vote in direct presidential elections, the list of major players is as convoluted as ever. Next month's legislative polls, meanwhile, will spawn a menagerie of odd bedfellows, though the rivalry between President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his former boss Megawati Sukarnoputri is likely to endure. - Patrick Guntensperger (Mar 20,'09)

A 'sacrificial lamb' for a military pact
The woman in the Philippines who in 2005 accused a United States serviceman of rape has recanted her version of events, but the country is still up in arms. Opposition and women's groups claim the US has manipulated her to defuse rising public resentment towards the controversial military pact that governs the conduct of US troops in the Philippines. (Mar 19,'09)

ASIA HAND
Cracks appear in Lee's mantle
Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong faces the city-state's worst economic crisis since it achieved independence in 1965, and his handling of the downturn may determine his staying power as premier. Popular agitation is already growing, including a perception that top officials are grossly overpaid. As the economic crisis bites deeper, it's possible that desperate Singaporeans will cry for political change. - Shawn W Crispin (Mar 19,'09)

Myanmar junta stubborn as ever
The United Nations' human-rights investigator sent into Myanmar has painted yet another grim picture of political prisoners, child soldiers and food shortages. And though the UN is trying to make it as easy as possible for the junta to rectify the abuses that have made the country an international pariah, the generals aren't all that interested. - Nick Cumming-Bruce (Mar 19,'09)

US gives a long overdue nod to Indonesia
United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's recent visit to Indonesia demonstrates that the US is at last attaching more importance to ties with the vast, diverse nation. For the US, Indonesia not only offers an important bridge to the Muslim world, it is also a potentially valuable partner for key environmental, trade and regional security issues. (Mar 17,'09)

Malaysia wakes up to crisis
The scale of would-be prime minister Najib Razak's latest stimulus plan came as a surprise, perhaps indicating that the Malaysian government has woken up to the damage the global financial crisis is causing the economy, particularly its all-important exports. Yet severe doubts remain about the initiative's likely impact. - Anil Netto (Mar 17,'09)

Vietnam bauxite plan opens pit of concern
Rare and remarkably broad public opposition is rising against plans for a US$15 billion bauxite mine in Vietnam's central highlands. The threat to the area's beauty and existing economy is one focus, while China's proposed role is worrying both labor leaders and military minds, including the legendary Vo Nguyen Giap. - Duy Hoang (Mar 16,'09)

Abduction case puts Thailand on trial
Five years after Thai human-rights lawyer Somchai Neelapaichit was yanked from his car in Bangkok and never seen again, the case remains unsolved. Somchai's disappearance is held up by many in Thailand's rebellious south as evidence of the government's impunity from abuses. How new Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva handles the case may be an important indication of the country's direction. - Brian McCartan (Mar 13,'09)

Doom, gloom and hope for Asia
Asia lost at least US$10 trillion in financial assets last year and the red ink is deepening. Yet if it gets to grip with the global financial infrastructure that will develop from the ashes, the region could be stronger than before, claims Asian Development Bank president Haruhiko Kuroda. - Al Labita (Mar 12,'09)

ASIA HAND
Race to the bottom
The relatively easy riches garnered from exports now elude Southeast Asia as consumers elsewhere tighten spending. The region's politicians and central bankers are denying, perhaps too strongly, that they will seek the one too-obvious solution - break ranks and cut the value of their currencies. - Shawn W Crispin (Mar 11,'09)

Myanmar's military as a Ponzi scheme
In many respects, Senior General Than Shwe runs Myanmar's military, the Tatmadaw, like a Ponzi scheme: early investors in the armed forces' pyramid are paid with the investments of newcomers, and everyone benefits as long as the pyramid continues to expand. The result is a bloated bureaucracy with little hope of ruling efficiently, even if power should some day pass to a democratically elected government. - Norman Robespierre (Mar 11,'09)

US payback, or pork, for Filipino vets?
United States President Barack Obama last month allocated US$198 million for Filipino World War II veterans - a move many Filipinos see as long overdue. But even as the elderly vets line up for compensation, critics claim the payment is either pork for Obama's home state of Hawaii, or a move to tighten an alliance put to the test by the "China challenge". - Joel D Adriano (Mar 9,'09)

INTERVIEW
In the corner for the defense
Despite losing 20 of his family members to the Khmer Rouge regime, lawyer Sa Sovan is committed to defending the rebel group's former head of state, Khieu Samphan, at Cambodia's war tribunal. Samphan is a "man of integrity" and the United Nations-backed court suffers from allegations of corruption and government interference, he tells Stephen Kurczy. (Mar 6,'09)

Boom to bust in Cambodia
Asia is only too familiar with housing booms turning into busts, with half-built memorials to the 1997-1998 financial crisis still marring city skylines. Now numerous projects in Cambodia are being left on the drawing board to gather dust. - Tim Sturrock (Mar 6,'09)

Malaysian democracy under a tree
Symbolic of the chaos that continues to plague Malaysian politics, things went from bad to bizarre this week when lawmakers of the opposition People's Alliance coalition in the state of Perak passed a resolution calling for fresh elections to end a constitutional deadlock. The emergency session took place under a tree. - Anil Netto (Mar 5,'09)

Micro-lenders run reality check
Lenders to the poorer parts of Cambodian society are running a health check on their own work, concerned that the fast growth in their business might not reflect their contribution, if any, to the country's decline in poverty levels. - Stephen Kurczy (Mar 4,'09)

SPEAKING FREELY
ASEAN makes fragile Myanmar progress
Largely overlooked at last weekend's summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations was an extension of the group's humanitarian efforts in Myanmar until 2010. This unprecedented international presence in the reclusive country has the potential to improve the living conditions of communities - but only if it can withstand the bloc's penchant for non-intervention. - Christina Hadju (Mar 4,'09)

Painting a smile on 'brand ASEAN'
Billed as a "new dawn" for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, its lavish annual summit saw it attempt to shed its image as a talking shop in which poverty and human rights take a back seat to diplomatic platitudes. While a new flag, motto and stirring anthem tried to emphasize this, the refusal of authoritarian governments to meet civil society groups revealed some "ugly scars" on the ASEAN psyche. - Charles McDermid and Jakkapun Kaewsangthong (Mar 3,'09)

Protectionism a dirty ASEAN word
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations sent out strong anti-protectionist signals at its annual summit, emphasizing the need for a joint approach and a pooling of resources of the 10-member grouping in response to the global economic downturn. But economists wonder if the slew of feel-good policies and optimistic declarations of togetherness will still resonate when leaders return to face harsh realities at home. - Charles McDermid (Mar 2,'09)

INTERVIEW
US finger on the pulse
The United States' first-ever ambassador to ASEAN, Scot Marciel, carries the message that the US believes the grouping is an indispensable partner that needs to be engaged. Myanmar, though, is a problem and the military leaders ought to reach out to their own people and the opposition, he tells Charles McDermid (Mar 2,'09)

ASEAN rights and wrongs
Given that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations has a new charter, expectations were high ahead of the 10-member grouping's meeting this weekend that it would finally move beyond its code of non-interference and take a more proactive stance. Its decision on the issue of Myanmar’s Muslim Rohingya boat people is not encouraging in this regard. - Brian McCartan (Feb 27,'09)

BOOK REVIEW
ASEAN in search of relevance
Hard Choices edited by Donald K Emmerson
As the 10-member Association of Southeast Nations kicks off its annual summit this weekend, many contentious issues surrounding the regional body's future are again under the microscope. This book attempts, and reasonably succeeds, at addressing many of them in a refreshing way, highlighting the hard choices ahead for Southeast Asian governments of all stripes. - Michael Vatikiotis (Feb 27,'09)

ASIA HAND
An opening in cyberspace closes
In Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and now Cambodia, Internet freedoms once seen as a force for democratic change are being radically curtailed by governments. As websites are blocked, one after another blogger is jailed, and writers are threatened for their online views, it appears certain that China's draconian cyber-censorship regime will be adopted as a model for the region. - Shawn W Crispin (Feb 26,'09)

The Abu Sayyaf fight on in Mindanao
The impoverished Philippine region where the Abu Sayyaf terror network operates has a history of resistance dating back to the Spanish and American colonial eras. Now a recent high-profile kidnapping shows the bloody, Muslim insurgency there is far from over. Violence will only escalate if Manila keeps breaking promises for greater autonomy and prosperity. - Joel D Adriano (Feb 25,'09)

Democracy plan fuels war in Myanmar
A hopeful notion is growing among Western governments that Myanmar's controversial 2010 elections will usher in a new era of domestic stability. Yet the junta's public push for democracy may be more likely to exacerbate border tensions, and could lead heavily armed ethnic insurgents into all-out war with the government. - Brian McCartan (Feb 24,'09)

China haunted by Khmer Rouge links
The specter of the past Sino-Khmer relations being raised by Cambodia's Khmer Rouge trials are certainly not welcome in Beijing, which supported the ultra-Maoist regime to the point of invading Vietnam in retaliation for overthrowing Pol Pot. But that was then, and now China's vital trade and transport links with Cambodia, Vietnam and the rest of Southeast Asia are likely to keep red-scarved skeletons in the closet. (Feb 20,'09)

Trial and error in Cambodia
The man known as Duch, the former torturer-in-chief of the murderous Khmer Rouge, appeared in court on Tuesday, the first of five defendants to face a United Nations-backed trial. He has confessed to thousands of murders, but concerns are rising that he will be the solitary figure to take the fall for the regime that killed an estimated 1.7 million Cambodians. - Craig Guthrie (Feb 18,'09)

ASIA HAND
When allies drift apart
Thailand's recent lack of cooperation on some key United States security issues marks a significant departure for the bilateral "legacy alliance". The patron-client dependency that characterized US-Thai ties during the Cold War has shifted to a new regional order that increasingly includes China. Says one former diplomat: "The US is simply less important to us than it was in the past." - Shawn W Crispin (Feb 13,'09)

Multinational flight from the Philippines
The government of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is trying to play down the impact of global turbulence on the economy. But the bare statistics tell a different story of escalating unemployment as multinationals pull up stakes in alarming numbers. - Joel D Adriano (Feb 12,'09)

Take the money and run in Myanmar
At least eight top ministers and the mayor of Yangon will reportedly resign their posts to run in Myanmar's general elections scheduled for 2010. Until then, citizens and businesses will be under predatory pressure from departing ministers out to build financial war chests or to secure preferential deals. The money grab augurs ill for the political change the junta has promised democracy will hold. - Norman Robespierre (Feb 11,'09)

A new tone as Clinton comes calling
By selecting East Asia as Hillary Clinton's first overseas trip as United States secretary of state, a significant message has been sent about where US foreign policy is headed under President Barack Obama. With stops in Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and China, Clinton's trip will go a long way in showing whether or not the new administration can deliver on its message of change. - Nehginpao Kipgen (Feb 11,'09)

A battle of wills in Malaysia's Perak
Whether he's faking a phone call from US President Barack Obama or pushing for fiscal discipline, Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin, the embattled chief minister of Malaysia's key province of Perak, has won widespread admiration. But a rash of party defections has left him adrift, and pitted him against the country's deputy prime minister and the Sultan of Perak. (Feb 10,'09)

Cambodia shares the pain
Forecasts that small, financially undeveloped Asian economies might maintain strong growth even as financial conditions in the West deteriorated are proving misplaced in Cambodia, where Prime Minister Hun Sen has now publicly recognized a harsher reality. - Stephen Kurczy (Feb 9,'09)

Chevron silent on oil-deal cost
US oil giant Chevron is being criticized for declining to reveal what it paid to secure rights to drill for oil in Cambodian waters. Anti-corruption group Global Witness would also like to know how much cash will flow, and where to, once the resources start flowing. (Feb 9,'09)

Sokimex in line for black rewards
Cambodia's largest business conglomerate, Sokimex Group, is expected to be one of the bigger winners if oil and gas finds in the country come to fruition, even as demands increase for the group to reveal more about its finances. - Geoffrey Cain (Feb 5,'09)

Another day, another scandal for Arroyo
The government of Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who rose to power in 2001 on an anti-corruption plank that vilified her predecessor, is embroiled in yet another round of high-profile graft allegations, this time involving her husband, a clutch of construction firms and the World Bank. - Joel D Adriano (Feb 4,'09)

Malaysian economy left to drift
A battle for control of the key Malaysian state of Perak, and Deputy Premier Najib Razak's attempts to bolster his credentials ahead of a power transition in the central government, risk diverting attention from the country's sliding economy. - Anil Netto (Feb 3,'09)

Indonesia's silent voters being heard
With legislative and presidential elections scheduled for this year, Indonesia's political focus is on the pivotal role of the so-called golput, registered voters who choose to skip the polls or cast blank ballots. Analysts predict the silent dissenters could account for 40% of the electorate, and their popular absence could carry the day. - Megawati Wijaya (Feb 2,'09)

ATol Specials

Looking for peace in the land of the Abu Sayyaf.
By Marco Garrido


By Pepe Escobar with photographs by Kevin Nortz

A four-part series by James Borton


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