SPEAKING
FREELY China-Singapore: A time for cool
heads By Evelyn Goh
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Singaporean Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien
Loong's recent three-day visit to Taiwan has soured the
island state's relations with China.
Even though
Singapore has insisted that this was a private visit in
accordance with its right to maintain unofficial ties
with Taiwan, the Chinese view is that when a high-level
official such as Lee undertakes a visit to Taiwan, the
political symbolism is so great that it inevitably
carries overtones of official links with Taiwan.
Leaving aside speculation about the exact
purposes of the visit, two key questions underlie the
current debate: 1. Ought we to be surprised at
the way in which China has reacted? Many scholars
and analysts who study Chinese foreign policy are not.
It is essential to bear in mind the context and
constraints under which Chinese politicians and
officials operate.
On the one hand, there have
been some marked changes in China's approach to
Southeast Asia over the past 10 years. Despite earlier
doubts, China has become an active participant in
regional institutions such as ASEAN plus 3 (the 10
nations of the Association of Southeast Nations
Countries plus the People's Republic of China, Japan and
South Korea) and the ASEAN Regional Forum. Sino-ASEAN
economic ties have been significantly deepened and now
include an agreement to set up a China-ASEAN free-trade
area by 2010. China has also managed to negotiate a
declaration of conduct with ASEAN on disputed islands in
the South China Sea.
Thus, in spite of lingering
worries about the impacts of China's rising power,
officials and observers in the region have been
increasingly optimistic about the progress made in
China's relations with Southeast Asia.
On the
other hand, China is, without doubt, rising to be the
most important country in East Asia. This is a fact that
all its neighbors recognize. What is less usually
acknowledged, though, is that as a major power, even -
and perhaps especially - as a rising one, China has
important concerns about credibility. Credibility is a
value that is often attributed to other great powers
such as the United States: for instance, in the argument
that the administration of President George W Bush had
to wage war against Afghanistan and Iraq to safeguard
its position as the world's superpower after September
11, 2001.
China's credibility concerns on the
strategic front are much more circumscribed. After the
Cold War, Beijing has really only had one non-negotiable
point of principle in its foreign relations: the status
of Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a part of China that
is currently estranged from the mainland - in these
terms, Taiwan is an integral issue impinging on the very
fundamental principles of sovereignty and national
integrity.
While we might quibble about how it
translates into practice, this principle of "one China"
is enshrined in all the communiques signed with
countries that officially recognize the People's
Republic of China.
Taken together, then, given
Beijing's positive approach to Southeast Asia in the
past decade and its efforts to assure its neighbors of
its "peaceful rise", Lee's visit to Taiwan is construed
by some in China as provocative. Insofar as it seems to
be taking some advantage of China's recent goodwill, it
is seen by some as a challenge to China's credibility
(more so than its sovereignty) on the one issue of
principle that Beijing has always insisted on since the
founding of the People's Republic in 1949.
2.
To what extent will this episode affect Sino-Singapore
ties? The full political impacts of this episode
on Singapore's relations with China remain to be seen.
However, two sets of considerations may help
decision-makers at this point.
First is
Singapore's self-perception. Just as China is a rising
power concerned about its image and credibility,
Singapore also has issues with its identity. It is a
small country that guards its sovereignty and autonomy
jealously. Thus it is particularly sensitive to any
hints of bullying behavior by bigger countries.
At the same time, Singapore is also a small
power that has managed to punch above its weight in the
international arena. This makes it a useful partner for
China, be it in acting as an interlocutor between East
and West, in facilitating dialogue, or in garnering
diplomatic support in regional and international forums.
The second consideration is the many other areas
of common agreement that now exist between China and not
only Singapore, but also Southeast Asia in general.
These include the many avenues of cooperation in
economic matters, as well as in areas such as combating
transnational crime and terrorism.
There is also
important agreement on some key regional norms,
including the importance of safeguarding state
sovereignty, non-interference in other countries'
internal affairs, the peaceful resolution of conflicts,
and a commitment to regional cooperation and diplomacy.
Given the two countries' clear commitment to
regional stability and cooperation, it is not too
optimistic to hope that China and Singapore can, by
exercising greater mutual understanding of the
constraints under which each one operates, prevent a
further straining of their relationship.
Evelyn Goh is assistant professor at
the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, Nanyang
Technological University. The views expressed are her
own.
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have their
say. Please click hereif you
are interested in contributing.
