Myanmar's hardline generals gain the
upper hand By Larry
Jagan
BANGKOK - A major cabinet shake-up by
Myanmar's military junta that resulted in the dismissal
of the country's foreign minister, a seasoned diplomat,
is sending a signal that military hardliners have
strengthened their control over the country, and the
pragmatists are losing the internal struggle for
influence.
On Saturday, Myanmar's military
leaders axed Foreign Minister Win Aung and his deputy
Khin Maung Win and replaced them with two little-known
military officers, both of whom have no previous
diplomatic experience.
Lately, rifts among
Myanmar's top military rulers have grown ever wider. For
months there has been an impasse among the country's top
generals over how to handle international criticism and
pressure to introduce political reforms. With this
latest move, it seems the hardliners around General Than
Shwe, chairman of the junta's State Peace and
Development Council, have moved to oust the pragmatists
supporting Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt.
Win Aung was a close confidant of
Khin Nyunt. His replacement, Major General Nyan Win - deputy
head of the military training college until Saturday's
promotion - is a Than Shwe loyalist.
In the face
of growing international pressure that includes
sanctions and persistent demands for the immediate
release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi,
Myanmar's top general has opted for the military's
traditional approach of self-imposed isolation.
"Than Shwe is clearly pulling down the shutters
to the outside world," a Burmese businessman in Yangon
told Inter Press Service. "Burma's leaders have always
been quick to impose their own form of self-isolation
when they did not want to deal with problems," he said.
(Myanmar was known as Burma until the junta changed the
country's name in 1989.)
The cabinet changes
come only weeks before Myanmar is scheduled to defend
its human-rights record and lack of progress toward
political reform at several major international
meetings. Win Aung was scheduled to attend the United
Nations General Assembly in New York, the Asia-Europe
meeting (ASEM) in Vietnam and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in the Laotian
capital of Vientiane.
Myanmar joined ASEAN, a
10-member grouping that also includes Brunei, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam, in 1997. Despite misgivings by
some governments and activists within and outside of the
region, ASEAN countries said Myanmar's membership would
allow their policy of "constructive engagement" to
slowly encourage Yangon to open up its political system.
"To change the foreign minister at this crucial
moment is an insult to the international community - and
it is a clear message that Burma's leaders have little
or no regard for international opinion," said a senior
UN official.
Win Aung was replaced less than a
week before the foreign minister was scheduled to go to
New York for the start of the UN General Assembly and
defend Myanmar in the face of international criticism.
The country's human-rights record is due to be closely
scrutinized during the UN session. And according to
diplomats in New York, this year's resolution on Myanmar
is expected to be very tough.
Apart from
addressing the UN, the foreign minister was also
scheduled to attend an informal meeting on Myanmar with
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and his special envoy to
Myanmar Razali Ismail.
It is still unclear
whether the new foreign minister will attend these New
York meetings, according to senior UN sources. But it
seems he will be going to the general assembly,
accompanied by Labor Minister Tin Win, who, according to
government officials, also was promoted to a ministerial
post in the reshuffle.
In addition to Myanmar's
human-rights violations, Than Shwe's stubborn refusal to
release pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi from house arrest
also has inflamed international opinion. Late last month
Annan released an extremely critical report on the state
of Myanmar's national reconciliation process. In it, he
condemned the regime for failing to involve Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy (NLD) and other opposition
parties in the National Convention, which is currently
drawing up a new constitution. His comments provided an
added blow to attempts made by Khin Nyunt to convince
the international community that Yangon is serious about
democratic reform.
Suu Kyi was first placed
under house arrest by the military junta months before
the 1990 national elections, in which her NLD won the
majority of seats. She was released briefly in 1995, but
her movements outside the capital were restricted by the
junta. Suu Kyi was returned to detention following an
attack on her and fellow party members on May 30, 2003.
Her party has since experienced a renewed crackdown.
Since late last year Win Aung had repeatedly
told UN envoy Razali and his Asian counterparts that Suu
Kyi would be released in time to participate in the
National Convention. "Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully
free, able to meet other members of her party and
conduct normal political activities," Win Aung told IPS
in an exclusive interview in the Thai island of Phuket
earlier this year. "The NLD will also be allowed to
re-open their offices before the convention gets
underway," he said.
But despite these
assurances, Than Shwe excluded the political parties
from the constitutional drafting process and kept Suu
Kyi locked up.
Win Aung's removal now casts
major doubts about Razali's future involvement in
Myanmar. It has been seven months since he was last
allowed to visit Yangon. Repeated requests to return
have been rebuffed by the regime, according to diplomats
in the capital.
"Ambassador Razali angered the
senior general [Than Shwe] last time he was here when he
called for the prime minister to be given a mandate to
introduce political reform and suggested that there was
a rift between the top military leaders," said a senior
Asian diplomat.
The pragmatists, including the
prime minister, who favor involving Suu Kyi in the
national reconciliation process and engaging in a
dialogue with the international community, are being
increasingly sidelined, and many are worried about their
political futures.
The foreign ministry has
traditionally been under the control of the country's
military intelligence chiefs. Win Aung's removal and
replacement by an army man is a clear indication that
Than Shwe and the hardliners have wrested control from
Khin Nyunt.
"Unfortunately Burma's future lies
in the hands of only one man," a Western diplomat based
in Yangon said on condition of anonymity. "And that is
not the prime minister."
