Yudhoyono's signs of style, not
substance By Gary
LaMoshi
DENPASAR, Bali - A week after his
apparent landslide victory, the policies of presumptive
president-elect Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono remain unclear.
People still don't know what the former general and
cabinet minister known as SBY will do with his mandate
to succeed President Megawati Sukarnoputri, but it's
becoming clearer how he'll do it.
In his first
public speech since the voting, Yudhoyono appealed for
unity without clarifying policies to rally around. "Let
us all increase our brotherhood, and, more importantly,
let us work very hard together to rebuild Indonesia," he
told Friday worshippers at a mosque near his home in
Bogor.
"Nobody knows Yudhoyono's party,
political line, or agenda," University of Indonesia
philosophy professor and veteran activist Gadis Arivia
said. "It's not about his program; it was, 'Asal
bukan Mega' [Anbody but Megawati]."
Leading
political commentator Andi Mallarangeng declared,
"Yudhoyono is going to do something. He needs to deliver
on his mandate. But we don't know what specifically
yet."
Mallarangeng added that changes in
approach may be more important than specific policies.
"Take corruption, for example. The legal framework is
there, the infrastructure there. We just need
leadership."
Signs of Yudhoyono's leadership
style are emerging as he and the country await the final
vote count and October 20 presidential inauguration.
Yudhoyono has polled nearly 61% of the 91% of votes
counted so far. Final election results are due to be
announced on October 5.
So far, the newly minted PhD holder
- he defended his doctoral dissertation on agricultural
economics during
the quiet period
before the September 20 run-off vote - has
lived up to his reputation for deliberate
decision making, befitting an outstanding military staff officer
not known as a battlefield commander. However, Yudhoyono's
relationship with his former armed forces colleagues is
one of many unknowns about him and his upcoming
tenure.
Trial balloons One
key feature of Yudhoyono's developing leadership style
is floating ideas publicly through allies in the media,
allowing him to gauge public reaction ahead of putting
himself in the line of fire. Supporters say Yudhoyono
won't change his mind if there is a negative reaction to
the trial balloons, but that he'll know better how to
try to sell the policies.
Last week he floated
trial balloons about establishing a national security
council and an economic advisory council. The former
would bring together top government defense and law
enforcement officials, including the armed forces and
police chiefs, to focus initially on the separatist
conflict in Aceh and the continuing threat of terrorism.
The economic council would include government officials
and outsiders, such as business leaders and academics,
to address the country's sluggish growth, persistent
unemployment and anemic investment.
The
trial balloon on these two US-style councils, according
to a source close to Yudhoyono's inner circle,
foreshadows a larger innovation, an executive office of
the president modeled after the West Wing of the White
House. This new structure would let Yudhoyono "take
charge of policy," according to the source. "He's going
to have his own body to formulate policies. Before, the
president was dependent on the ministers for policies.
Now he'll have independent sources."
Some reformers have expressed doubts about the return of a
former general to Istana Merdeka, citing numerous Suharto
era generals backing Yudhoyono's campaign. But the Prosperous Justice Party,
a leading champion of reform, is one of
several parties in Yudhoyono's coalition from the generally anti-military
Islamic camp.
The source close
to Yudhoyono's camp dismissed concerns that a former
general consolidating power in his presidential office
signals a turn back toward authoritarianism. Trial
balloons could deflate that issue. Allies could advance
the new structure as Yudhoyono asserting the stronger
leadership that anecdotal evidence says Indonesian
voters want, even if they didn't expect it to be
cautiously test marketed.
Nationhood
Coalition in opposition There is also a case
study and an emerging long-term strategy for Yudhoyono
to overcome his meager support in the incoming House of
Representatives. Yudhoyono's new Democratic Party and
its allies have about 90 seats out of 550 in the
legislature. The Nationhood Coalition, formed to support
Megawati's presidential bid, includes Indonesia's three
Suharto-era political parties - the authoritarian
government's ruling vehicle Golkar, Megawati's
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the
Islamic-based United Development Party (PPP) of outgoing
Vice President Hamzah Haz - and it holds more than 300
seats in the new House of Representatives.
Even
though it would be easier to nail yogurt to a wall than
pin down any of Yudhoyono's key policies, Nationhood
Coalition leader Akbar Tanjung declared that the group
would sit in opposition to Yudhoyono's presidency. In
opposition, the group could obstruct the new president's
legislative agenda and pursue its own.
But
cracks have appeared in both the partnership and the
component parties. "The Nationhood Coalition is not a
cohesive bloc," Mallarangeng says, forecasting an end to
the failed electoral alliance. "The reason for its
existence is finished."
Some PDI-P leaders
already have called for a break up, partly out of
dissatisfaction with Nationhood Coalition efforts on
behalf of Megawati, partly because they'd like to see
what Yudhoyono offers, policy-wise and politically,
before taking sides. Internally, PDI-P faces a struggle
between its old guard, which was increasingly sidelined
during Megawati's presidency, and newcomers often linked
to her husband, Taufik Kiemas. The newcomers will likely
take the fall for Megawati's electoral failure.
Kalla change for Golkar? While trying
to keep the alliance intact, Golkar chairman Tanjung has
been purging his own party of dissidents who didn't
support Megawati. But surveys show the majority of local
chapter leaders and more than 70% of Golkar members
supported Yudhoyono. Yudhoyono's running mate Jusuf
Kalla, a Golkar executive under suspension, is likely to
challenge Tanjung for the party leadership in December.
A Kalla victory could bring Golkar's 128 House seats
into Yudhoyono's camp.
To survive, Tanjung will
need to do a better job in Golkar's leadership contest
than he did in his first attempt to flex the muscles of
the Nationhood Coalition. Last week, the House budget
committee reversed its previous decision and voted to
cut fuel subsidies in the budget, reportedly on orders
from Tanjung.
Those subsidies keep the price of
petroleum products for Indonesian consumers well below
world levels - a liter of premium gasoline costs about
US$0.50 - in deference to Indonesia's oil-producer
status. However, that production is dwindling and
refined products such as gasoline need to be imported,
making the subsidy an expensive luxury.
Originally budgeted at Rp14.5 trillion ($1.6
billion) for oil prices under $20 a barrel, the revised
budget allocates Rp63 trillion for subsidies. The
government pledged not to raise pump prices in order to
keep peace during this election year. Previous attempts
to trim subsidies and increase fuels costs have been
greeted with sometimes violent demonstrations.
So, when the budget committee voted to cut the
subsidy, it seemed the Nationhood Coalition had set a
trap for the incoming administration: Yudhoyono would
have no choice but to make an unpopular fuel price hike
one of his first acts. But now the move seems to have
backfired, thanks to some clever political jujitsu from
Yudhoyono's team.
After the decision, a parade
of experts quickly emerged to agree that it is time to
cut fuel subsidies on most items, since the middle and
upper class enjoy most of the benefits. They cited
Yudhoyono's forgotten campaign promise to institute
subsidies geared more toward helping the poor. While
raising prices could result in some bellyaching from the
effected parties, making the tough choice to cut
subsidies could gas up Yudhoyono's reputation for strong
leadership.
Gary LaMoshi, a longtime
editor of investor rights advocate eRaider.com, has also
contributed to Slate and Salon.com. He's worked as a
broadcast producer and as a print writer and editor in
the United States and Asia. He moved to Hong Kong in
1995 and now splits his time between there and
Indonesia.
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