NEW YORK - President Megawati Sukarnoputri was
once regarded as the great hope for Indonesian
democracy. The daughter of former president Sukarno, she
was expected to bring new life to the country's nascent
democratic institutions and provide a human face to the
role of government in the daily life of most
Indonesians, be they among the millions of poor farmers
in rural areas or the struggling urban middle class.
But Megawati was a disappointment to many. A
sizeable majority of Indonesian voters regarded her as
aloof, uncaring and unable to deal with the pressing
issues of corruption, more equitable economic growth and
terrorism. As a result, some 80% of the country's
eligible voters cast ballots on September 20 with a
sizeable majority picking former security minister and
general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as the nation's sixth
president since independence: Yudhoyono won 60.6% of the
ballot to Megawati's 39.4%, according to final poll
results released by Indonesia's independent election
commission on Monday.
Probably Megawati's most
significant legacy will be that she presided over a very
difficult period in her country's history, maintaining
some degree of national unity and allowing for a
peaceful transition of power to her rival Yudhoyono
following the country's historic first ever direct
presidential elections.
In all fairness,
Megawati did help to instill a greater sense of
stability into a country sent reeling from Suharto's
fall in May 1998, the concurrent economic collapse (real
gross domestic product or GDP shrank 14% during
1997-98), and the erratic tenure of former president
Wahid, who resigned in 2001. Indeed, it can be argued
that under Megawati's brief three-year administration,
the economy regained momentum (growing at 5% annually),
inflation became minimal, and the currency and stock
markets stabilized. Although terrorism remains a
concern, Islamic radicals are hardly dictating the
future direction of the country.
Why, then, did
Megawati fail to win the election, which saw its first
round in April? A large part of the problem is that she
failed to convince the majority of Indonesian voters
that she really cared about their lives. Despite some
moderately impressive accomplishments on the economic
front, the primary concern of many Indonesians was that
the pace of economic growth was not sufficient to make a
dent in high levels of unemployment and underemployment,
which together account for roughly 40% of the total work
force.
Megawati also hurt her position with
voters when she allied herself with Suharto's old
political party, Golkar, an association that tarnished
her reformist credentials. In addition, the president
was not helped by the perceived greediness of her
husband, Taufik Kiemas, a wealthy businessman who named
himself head of a high-level ministerial delegation
negotiating a multi-billion natural gas deal with China.
Kiemas is not a member of the government. Along these
lines, Megawati's support among the urban and rural
poor, formerly her main base, badly eroded.
Megawati also lost because her competitor,
Yudhoyono, ran a better campaign. A former general with
some training in the United States, Yudhoyono emerged in
voters' minds as someone who would be tough on
corruption and terrorism. His promise to inject fresh
life into the economy convinced voters he would take
stronger measures to get the economy moving at a faster
pace. His reputation as being market friendly and open
to new ideas also has some appeal to foreign investors.
Yudhoyono has a tough road ahead. He must
appoint a cabinet, seek to introduce and implement
policies that stimulate stronger economic growth,
attract greater foreign direct investment, reduce
unemployment and underemployment and deal with
terrorism. Potentially complicating matters - the
incoming president lacks a majority in the nation's
parliament, with his Democratic Party holding only 56
out of 550 seats in the House of Representatives.
Moreover, the largest party in parliament, Golkar,
already has indicated its official opposition to the
government, setting up its leader, former presidential
candidate Akbar Tanjung, as a possible power broker.
Yudhoyono will be the fourth president to follow
Suharto, who was forced from power in 1998. Indonesians
want jobs, public safety and a cleaner government. There
have endured slow employment generation, bombings and
official corruption. Yudhoyono has an opportunity to
break with the track record of former governments. It
will not be an easy process. Doing so requires a strong,
pragmatic leader, one who is willing to operate with a
spirit of parliamentary government.
For now the
new president will have some degree of good will from
both voters and foreign investors. But he will have to
move quickly to take advantage of that good will and
develop some degree of policy momentum. Failure to
address the country's many challenges will only run the
risk of slowing Indonesia's return to sustainable growth
and an improved standard of living for the population.
Failure would also create more recruits for radical
Islam. This is something that neither the majority of
Indonesians or their neighbors what to see.
(Posted with permission from KWR
International, Inc, (KWR), a consulting firm
specializing in the delivery of research, communications
and advisory services.)
