Myanmar, EU draw lines in the
sand By Marwaan Macan-Markar
BANGKOK - The showdown
between Myanmar's military regime and the European Union at the
upcoming Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) of Asian and
European leaders has been propelled into one that could
damage the EU's stature if Yangon does not blink.
As it is, the stakes have never been higher. The
Europeans are threatening the junta with plans to deny
more Myanmar officials travel visas coupled with a push
to freeze international lending to the military
dictatorship.
In addition,
the Europeans have also targeted the Southeast
Asian country's illegal logging industry, which remains a
key foreign-exchange earner because of the heavy demand for Myanmar teak.
To
escape such punitive measures, Yangon has to meet
the EU's politically charged demands by the time the
two-day ASEM summit gets under way in Hanoi on
Friday.
The demands are ones the junta has ignored
over the past year when made by leading United Nations
officials such as Secretary General Kofi Annan, the US
government and, at times, even some of Myanmar's
Southeast Asian neighbors.
They include the
release from house arrest of pro-democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi, the halt to intimidation of people
belonging to her party - the National League for
Democracy (NLD) - and the resumption of full political
and civil liberties to the stalled national convention
to draft a new constitution.
"This has become a
test of the EU's credibility. It will have to implement
its threats if the regime fails to comply," Debbie
Stothard of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Myanmar
(ALTSEAN), a regional human-rights lobby, told Inter
Press Service.
These ultimatums, she said, are
the "strongest so far, because the EU has been wary of
imposing economic sanctions".
For Myanmar
parliamentarians in exile, the EU's demands on Yangon
have been the "loudest" threats made. "It will come down
to whether it has teeth. We will have to see," Teddy
Buri, president of a group of Myanmar parliamentarians
in exile, said in an interview.
The pressure
from the EU indicates the "frustration at the direction
in which the government in Myanmar is taking the
country," he said.
Signs of this imminent
confrontation were clear in mid-June, when the EU
announced it was withdrawing from planned talks with
Southeast Asian finance and economic ministers due to
the likelihood of Myanmar participating at the ASEM
summit.
The EU's subsequent threat to boycott
this week's summit was resolved after it was agreed that
Yangon would reduce its level of representation at the
meeting. The country's foreign minister will be
permitted to attend, unlike the government leaders
appearing for the other nations.
This will be
the first time that Myanmar, known as Burma before the
military government changed the name, will be present at
ASEM, which has been meeting every two years since it
was conceived in 1996.
Myanmar's inclusion was
part of an effort by the 10-member ASEAN to ensure that
its newest members gain from the ASEM agenda on economic
cooperation and trade. The other two new members are
Cambodia and Laos.
Despite grumblings from the
EU about Myanmar's inclusion in the summit, hopes are
that the meeting will live up to its aims, providing
countries beleaguered by economic strife an opportunity
to create an international climate and cooperation for
growth and prosperity - something the Philippines in
particular badly needs.
The meeting could pave
the way for meeting Philippine President Gloria
Macapagal-Arroyo's 10-point economic agenda, said
Foreign Affairs Assistant Secretary for European Affairs
Jaime Yambao. This can be achieved through increased
global stability, encouragement of foreign investment
and the opening up or expanding of Philippine products,
particularly from small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
"ASEM brings us into partnership with the
European Union, which is our No 1 source of
investments," Yambao said. "[The] EU is the world's
largest single market now and the country's third
principal economic partner after the US and ASEAN+3," he
said.
Records show that foreign direct equity
and portfolio investments from the EU to the Philippines
reached US$20.8 billion in 1996-2003.
On the
other hand, total Philippine trade with the EU in 2003
amounted to $8.8 billion (P484 billion). The balance of
trade was in favor of the Philippines by $2.86 billion,
as exports reached $5.8 billion.
In economic
terms, ASEM already accounts for major economic weights
in the world. ASEM countries account for 55.1% of total
world trade and 45.5% of the world's total gross
domestic product. In 2002 these countries represented
12.5% of the world's land size and 37.2% of the world's
population, accounting for 2.4 billion people.
ASEM was launched in Bangkok in 1996 as an informal
process for inter-regional and inter-governmental
dialogue and cooperation between 26 Eurasian
countries - including 15 EU member states, seven
ASEAN countries - Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam - and China,
Japan and South Korea.
The economic ties
between the two groupings are reflected in the volume of
trade that prevails, with reports showing that the EU
was ASEAN's second-largest export market in 2002 and
third-largest trading partner following the United
States and Japan.
In 2002, EU exports to ASEAN
reached nearly US$36.82 billion, while EU imports from
ASEAN were estimated at $76 billion, states a release
from the EU's external relations division.
The
threat of this trade balance that favors ASEAN being
undermined by the spat between the EU and Myanmar has
triggered concern among some governments in this region.
It comes amid worries over pressure on Southeast
Asian countries from the US government concerning the
oppression in Myanmar. Currently, Washington has imposed
sweeping trade and economic sanctions on Yangon,
including a ban on all imports to the United States from
Myanmar.
"The US sanctions are hurting the
regime because it hits their economic and financial
base," says Stothard, the human-rights activist. "That
is conveyed by the angry reactions against the US
sanctions coming from Rangoon [Yangon]."
According to Stothard, such economic pressure
from outside is the only language that the military
regime takes note of. "International diplomatic pressure
not backed up by economic threats will not result in
change."
But Myanmar's military generals, whose
grip on power goes back to 1962, appear to be in no
hurry to cave into such pressure, most recently from the
EU. In late September, General Than Shwe, the country's
hardline military leader, displayed his stubbornness by
firing Win Aung, the foreign minister.
Win Aung,
one of the few civilians in the junta, was expected to
present a moderate face of Yangon at ASEM. The one who
has replaced him, and will most likely to take his role
at the Hanoi summit, is a military officer, Major
General Nyan Win.
Than Shwe's move has set up a
confrontation of wills. He appears reluctant to blink.
