JAKARTA - In the wake of the tsunami tragedy
that has claimed more than 80,000 Indonesian lives,
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has called on his
people to approach the New Year with optimism. The
latest death toll in the country's poorest region - the
resource-rich but war-ravaged province of Aceh on the
northwestern tip of Sumatra Island - has been estimated
at 82,000, mostly in Banda Aceh, Sabang and the west
coast regencies of Aceh Jaya and Aceh Besar.
More than 40% of the population of the province
was living below the poverty line before the disaster,
which has deepened the poverty of thousands more by
snatching away their livelihoods. Communities are
shattered by the deaths of older people, traditional
leaders and local officials. Health Minister Siti
Fadilah Supari has said officials would now offer only
general estimates of the death toll because there were
simply too many bodies to count.
Concluding his
year-end speech to the nation by declaring 2005 "The
Year of Solidarity and Togetherness", Yudhoyono asked
people to open their hearts to the victims of tragedies
and to assist the relief effort. "Don't let them feel
alone because they are a part of us, of our national
family," he said.
Aceh's military commander,
Major General Endang Suwarya, said up to three-quarters
of the western coastline has been destroyed, with some
towns being totally leveled. Vast tracts of the province
are still flooded a week after the killer waves struck
on Sunday, December 26.
Lack of
coordination The Aceh provincial administration
and its structure were decimated. Reports say only half
of the administration's employees survived the tragedy,
and most government offices there were destroyed.
According to the United Nations, it could take
up to a year to secure afflicted communities from hunger
and disease. The central government has been slow to get
its act together and face the daunting task of
sustaining rescue efforts. The relief effort is being
coordinated by the National Coordination Board
(Bakornas) under the Coordinating Ministry for People's
Welfare.
Operational coordination units
(Satkorlak) have been established in Aceh and
North Sumatra provinces under the governor. Regents are
leading the regency-level operational units
(Satlak). Though aid is beginning to filter in
slowly in the wake of the disaster, distribution on the
ground is severely hampered by a lack of coordination
and a severe shortage of fuel and vehicles.
Sea
Hawk helicopters from the United States aircraft carrier
Abraham Lincoln have been carrying emergency aid to some
of the worst-hit towns such as Meulaboh and Calang. US
and Australian C-130 Hercules transport planes, along
with other civilian and military aircraft, are bringing
bulk supplies and medical equipment into the capital,
Banda Aceh.
Rebels under
attack Continuing separatist fighting in Aceh has
raised concern among aid workers who claim the safety of
thousands of homeless refugees could be at risk if the
military (TNI) and Free Aceh Movement (GAM) do not
respect a cease fire in the province.
The GAM
leadership in exile in Sweden has offered a unilateral
cease fire, and self-styled GAM Prime Minister Malik
Mahmud said the tsunami might eventually help peace
prospects. Critics claim the war against the rebels
and earlier restrictions on foreigners were part of
an effort by the security forces and provincial
government to embezzle development funds, profit from
illegal businesses and cover up the extent of severe
human-rights abuses.
As for the military and
police, they are now concentrating on burying the
thousands of dead that line the streets, amid fears that
epidemic outbreaks of water-borne diseases could claim
thousands more lives. More than 370 soldiers and 51
members of their families are among the dead.
Yet the TNI are still finding time to continue
the offensive against the rebels. Reports from the field
said hundreds of troops were raiding GAM hideouts across
East and North Aceh.
The president himself,
possibly viewing the disaster in the war zone as an
opportunity to negotiate an end to the long-running
conflict, has called for a permanent end to the
rebellion. "I call on those who are still raising arms
to come out ... Let us use this historic momentum to
join and be united again," he said in Jakarta less than
two days after the earthquake.
Fears of
graft Leading parliamentarians also support the
government's relief efforts but have been quick to urge
extreme caution in disbursing aid to a province where
corruption has been singularly rampant.
In 2003,
the government allocated Rp4.06 trillion (US$429.5
million) to military operations in Aceh - roughly three
times larger than the annual provincial budget - but a
state-appointed auditor later found that about $291
million went missing. Aceh Governor Abdullah Puteh is on
trial for graft in the new Anti-Corruption Court.
Speaker of the
People's Consultative Assembly Hidayat Nurwahid warned the government
it must ensure that relief aid to the province does not
fall into the hands of corrupt officials with a
propensity to "fish for great catches in murky
waters". Nurwahid's younger brother Ahmad Wisanggeni and his
wife died in Aceh.
The Prosperous Justice
Party (PKS), which Nurwahid led prior to his appointment
to the assembly, has a strong political base in Aceh,
where its reputation for incorruptibility has won
widespread support from ordinary voters. But despite the
more favorable political landscape since Vice President
Jusuf Kalla's victory over Akbar Tandjung to become
Golkar's new leader, the parliamentary opposition
movement still poses problems.
Speakers in the
House of Representatives (DPR) and House faction and
commission heads have agreed to establish a team to
monitor the flow and utilization of material aid and
monetary-relief funds. The move was in response to
concerns voiced by Nurwahid and others that the aid
should be disbursed quickly to the persons most in need
and not find its way into the pockets of corrupt
military and government officials. But the head of
former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) faction in the
House, Tjahyo Kumolo, said that his party would not
support the formation of the monitoring team.
Reconstruction and rescheduling Of the
nine nations hit by the tsunami, Indonesia's $208
billion economy is the second largest behind India's
($600 billion). According to central bank data, total
external public debt is around $81 billion, with almost
half of this owed to the Paris Club of creditor nations.
As Finance Minister Jusuf Anwar points out, a
moratorium would help ease pressure on foreign debt
servicing and thus free up more funds for reconstruction
of the disaster areas. Coordinating Minister for the
Economy Aburizal Bakrie told Vice President Kalla that
rebuilding Aceh and the surrounding areas will take at
least five years and could cost some Rp33 trillion
(about $3.5 billion).
Standard & Poor's last
month raised Indonesia's long-term foreign-currency
credit rating one step to the fourth-highest junk level,
B+, from B. This is the highest its credit rating has
reached since the 1997 Asian financial crisis and
stemmed from the "declining debt and debt-servicing
burden and increased stability". The rating will mean
cheaper rates for government borrowing and help reduce
the interest payment on overseas debt.
"It will
likely lower the interest rate by 0.25 percentage
points. That would translate into a saving of around
$125 million in interest payments" a year, Bakrie said,
adding that the upgrade "shows that foreign investors
have confidence in Indonesia".
Leaving the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue package at the
end of 2003 makes it, in theory, more difficult for
Indonesia to seek fresh debt rescheduling from the Paris
Club; an IMF country program is required to be in place
for a country to be eligible for debt rescheduling. But
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and French President
Jacques Chirac have both said their governments would
press for the principle of a debt moratorium within the
Paris Club for the countries involved - Indonesia and
Somalia. The issue will be raised at the next scheduled
meeting later this month.
Looking
ahead In the future, money will have to be spent
on better disaster-relief programs to boost Indonesia's
ability to cope with various degrees of disasters. Some
measures and systems are in place now but have not been
fully implemented and certainly not tested in disaster
conditions. A Disaster Relief Brigade under the National
Coordinating Board for Disaster Management has about 150
paramedics, doctors and disaster-management experts as
well as several hundred paramedics and doctors on
standby for mobilization as volunteers in case of a
large-scale disaster.
The archipelago is located
in an area dubbed the "Ring of Fire" for its high rate
of volcanic and tectonic activity. Landslides and floods
are also common, many caused by worsening environmental
damage such as deforestation. The tsunami disaster was
just the latest. An earthquake measuring 6.4 on the
Richter scale devastated the East Nusa Tenggara island
of Alor in November, killing more than 30, damaging more
than 17,000 buildings and leaving 50,000 people
homeless. In Nabire, West Papua, a powerful earthquake
took 32 lives in late November.
Bill
Guerin, a weekly Jakarta correspondent for Asia
Times Online since 2000, has worked in Indonesia for 19
years in journalism and editorial positions. He has been
published by the BBC on East Timor and specializes in
business/economic and political analysis in
Indonesia.
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