Lame duck Abdullah still peddles reform
By Anil Netto
PENANG - It took exactly seven months after a general electoral setback for
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi to announce that he would not be defending the
presidency of the dominant party in the ruling coalition in intra-party polls
next year.
The announcement, when it finally came on Wednesday, appears to pave the way
for his deputy, Najib Razak, to take over the helm of the United Malays
National Organization (UMNO) and the premiership. UMNO had earlier postponed
its party polls from December to March as part of a controversial transition
plan between Abdullah and Najib.
The move throws into further doubt Abdullah's ability to implement the reforms
he promised when, in November 2003, he took over
the reins from his authoritarian predecessor Mahathir Mohamad, who has been
sniping at his anointed successor ever since.
Voters rallied around the promise of change the following year, giving Abdullah
a landslide victory as his Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition swept over 90% of
parliamentary seats with 64% of the popular vote. But despite initial measures,
Abdullah failed to deliver when it mattered most, especially in reforming the
police and judiciary, and in stamping out widespread corruption.
Within four years, disillusioned voters deserted the ruling coalition in droves
as the BN suffered its biggest electoral setback in the March 8 general
election. It lost five states to the opposition as well as its coveted
two-thirds parliamentary majority, winning just over half the popular vote.
Abdullah's days seemed numbered, but still he hung on.
In August, his administration suffered a further setback when former deputy
prime minister Anwar Ibrahim returned to parliament as opposition leader after
winning a by-election in Permatang Pauh with a bigger majority. The seat on
mainland Penang, Abdullah's home state, had been vacated by Anwar's wife Wan
Azizah, the president of the People's Justice Party (PKR).
The larger majority, coming just over four months after the general election,
suggested to some that support for the BN may have waned even further since the
March polls. On September 16, Anwar claimed he had secured the 31 defections
from BN parliamentarians that the opposition People's Alliance needs to topple
the federal government and form a new administration. But he was unable to
stake that claim as parliament was still in recess.
Observers are now closely watching to see if those defections to the People's
Alliance will materialize when parliament reopens on October 13. Abdullah's
announcement five days ahead of that date suggests he has bowed to his party's
demands for a change in leadership, perhaps to stave off the challenge not just
from Anwar but from rival camps within UMNO.
His announcement also comes weeks after the business press here reported
alarming second quarter economic and market figures, indicating there had been
a substantial outflow of portfolio funds offsetting recent gains in direct
investment. Although the surplus in the goods account in the second quarter was
the largest since 2001, on the back of a 16% rise in exports, portfolio
investments were leaving the country.
The tide turned as the first quarter's inflow of RM21 billion (US$6 billion) in
portfolio investments swung to a net outflow of RM21 billion in the second
quarter.
The outflow was driven ''partly by unrelenting political tension since the
March 8 general election and the broad sell-off of the stock market'', reported
business portal, The Edge, on September 15.
The press - and crucially, the business community - also appeared to be warming
to Anwar, who believes in a market economy balanced by humane social policies.
The People's Alliance state governments have also been touting new
''pro-business'' policies.
Intra-party strife
The writing was on the wall as Abdullah came under intense pressure from second
echelon party leaders urging him to quit. On September 17, the untested Najib
took over the powerful finance minister's portfolio from Abdullah, while the
embattled premier took over the defense ministry in a swap.
In another blow for Abdullah, the de facto law minister Zaid Ibrahim, who the
premier had recruited to push forward his legal reforms, confirmed he was
quitting a day earlier. At a press conference Wednesday, Abdullah gamely vowed
to carry through his reform program for the rest of his premiership. He also
said he wanted to see through reforms to the judiciary, the police and
anti-corruption agency.
But with Zaid gone and Najib - not known for being a political reformer -
breathing down his neck, few are betting that Abdullah, who could well soon
become a lame duck premier, will be able to rise to the challenge. If Abdullah
could not push through the reforms at the height of his popularity, analysts
say, it seems doubtful he could do so now. However, some suggest that Abdullah
could yet have another trick or two up his sleeve. When asked who his successor
would be, he replied: "I hope it is Najib. Why do I say hope? Najib has to
stand for UMNO elections first. Once he wins the elections and becomes party
president then we will discuss it."
Cynics say this lack of commitment could still leave some wriggle room for
Abdullah or someone else to maneuver. Political observers point out that
Abdullah did not reach the nation's top post without being an astute, if
colorless, politician with staying power.
One dark horse is former finance minister Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who earlier
indicated he could contest for UMNO's top post. "I am confident I have a chance
even if Abdullah does not contest as the people within and outside of UMNO have
accepted me," he said on September 27. But that might be a tall order, as
analysts believe he lacks grassroots support within the party.
Najib, the son of a former prime minister, has been widely implicated in the
murder of a Mongolian national - an allegation he has vehemently denied. Last
month one of his biggest critics, Raja Petra Kamarudin, who runs the hugely
popular Malaysia Today website, was detained without trial under the Internal
Security Act (ISA). The outspoken blogger is also in court this week facing a
charge of sedition for an article he wrote in connection with the murder case.
Significantly, Abdullah's reform agenda does not include a repeal of the ISA,
which the People's Alliance has vowed to abolish if it seizes power. Zaid quit
Abdullah's cabinet in protest over his use of the ISA against Raja Petra and
two others, a prominent opposition politician and a journalist.
The two were soon released, but Raja Petra was given a two-year prison term by
Home Minister Syed Hamid Albar for allegedly publishing articles that were
critical of Islam. Civil society activists fret that Najib's ascent may signal
a return to full-blown authoritarianism, as seen under Mahathir, and a
resurgence of the political old guard.
Mahathir himself has made it clear that the old guard did not take kindly to
Zaid's reform ideas. "Apparently without bothering to consult the cabinet or
the prime minister, he publicly proposed so-called legal and judicial reforms,"
wrote Mahathir in his blog. "He proposed that judges should be appointed by a
panel on which sit several members of the Bar Council. He did not think it odd
that members of the bar would in the course of their work be facing the judges
they appointed."
Left unsaid was the implication that an independent judiciary could have
threatened the UMNO's hegemony over the long run. Meanwhile, all kinds of
political permutations and combinations are being talked about, including
Razaleigh's new suggestion for a "unity government". But, for now, attention
shifts to the reopening of parliament on October 13, where Anwar will push for
a motion of no-confidence against a weakened Abdullah.
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