Sinking feeling in the Philippines
By Joel D Adriano
MANILA - As the flood waters recede and Filipinos count their extraordinary
losses, analysts are weighing the political damage accrued to Philippine
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's legacy and her anointed successor's
electoral prospects at next year's polls.
Her government's response to tropical storm-induced flooding in Manila and
nearby provinces has been widely criticized as inept and inadequate, drawing
harsh parallels in the former American colony to past US president George W
Bush's mismanagement of the Hurricane Katrina disaster that disproportionately
affected poverty-stricken areas.
Two tropical storms, known as Ketsana and Parma, have caused
a series of landslides and extensive flooding that have killed at least 700
people across this island nation. An estimated four million people have lost
their homes to the disaster, but only one million have found sanctuary in
government-provided emergency shelters, according to some relief agency
estimates.
Storm-related damage has already reached US$540 million, with mounting health,
farm and business losses expected to push that figure to over $1 billion. As
much of the infrastructure and business damage has been concentrated in the
economically important Metro Manila area, some analysts believe the disaster
will take a significant toll on the already weak national economy.
Private economist Solita Monsod said that the areas affected by the floods
comprise 42% of the country's farm output and some 67% of its industrial
production. With almost all the fourth quarter farm output wiped out in most of
these areas, Monsod believes the disaster will have a significant impact on the
economy - more than foreign remittances from overseas workers will be able to
compensate for.
Arroyo's government has characteristically downplayed the expected economic
impact of the floods, claiming the disaster won't affect this year's or next
year's gross domestic product growth (GDP) performance. The International
Monetary Fund predicts the Philippines will grow 1% this year and 3.2% in 2010,
considerably lower than the government's forecast of 4.1% for next year.
The government's struggle to raise funds to finance reconstruction and provide
relief to millions of storm victims raises strong doubts about the government's
predictions. Arroyo has appealed for foreign aid on top of a recent loan from
the Asian Development Bank designed to help the Philippines ride out the global
economic recession.
Instead, it seems the government plans to rely heavily on remittances from
overseas workers to assist their disaster-stricken family members. She has
called on Congress to approve an emergency supplemental budget of P10 billion
(US$215 million) to top up the country's depleted calamity fund, a
discretionary budget under the executive branch.
The supplemental budget has already passed the lower House of Representatives,
which is dominated by Arroyo supporters, but is expected to face resistance in
the opposition-dominated Senate, where lawmakers and even administration allies
are questioning the emergency need for the additional budget.
Opposition politician Teodoro Casino has called for an official explanation
detailing why a P2 billion calamity fund was drawn down to P24 million before
the recent disasters and has queried how the P10 billion supplementary figure
was devised. Casino and other representatives have suggested cheekily that
Arroyo suspend the repayment of foreign debts to finance relief efforts.
Arroyo's decision to declare a state of emergency for the entire country when
only 12 provinces were adversely impacted has also been called into question by
business leaders, who fear the status will unnecessarily dampen business and
investor confidence. Others have suggested that the relaxation on budget
controls during times of calamity could result in funds being diverted to build
war chests for next year's elections.
"It was not carefully thought. It was clear that in [the southern island of]
Mindanao there were no rains," said Senator Manuel Roxas II.
Watery depths Arroyo's already record negative opinion poll ratings
dropped further in the latest Social Weather Station survey, conducted between
September 18 and 21. The independent polling firm showed Arroyo's third quarter
satisfaction rating at -38, down from the -31 recorded in June.
The government's perceived limp response and lacking preparedness among
government agencies to deal with the crisis some suspect will pull down those
ratings further. Arroyo's failure to rapidly react has exposed the
administrative flaw of leaving The National Disaster Coordinating Council
(NDCC), an ad hoc body without a dedicated budget, responsible for the
management of national disasters.
That was apparent in tardy and ineffective rescue operations, even in downtown
Manila. Conditions in the provinces are said to be much worse, as rescuers
weeks later still struggle to reach isolated areas where roads and bridges have
been washed away. The government's lack of rescue helicopters and heavy
machinery needed to deal with the disaster's aftermath has cost many Filipinos
their lives.
It took over a week before relief supplies reached survivors in several
isolated areas, which were finally brought in by US choppers and troops which
arrived from Japan to assist in the relief operations. Victims of flooding in
northern Luzon complained that there was no effective mechanism to warn
residents of incoming water flows after the government released water from dams
to prevent spillage and possible dam breakage. Across flood-hit areas
government services to clear streets of the massive garbage, rotten merchandise
and mud-covered household furniture and appliances have been scarce or
nonexistent.
Despite all this, Anthony Golez, Arroyo's deputy spokesperson, said that the
public would recognize the government's "timely response" and predicted that
the president's opinion ratings would improve in the next round of surveys. The
crisis has also exposed defense secretary and NDCC chairperson Gilbert Teodoro
Jr, who plans to run under Arroyo's party's ticket at next year's polls.
He is currently running dead last in opinion surveys among 2010 presidential
aspirants, garnering less than 1%. Some administration supporters hoped that
his successful handling of the current crisis, including frequent media
interviews on the rescue and relief efforts, would burnish his image and
heighten his profile. But in light of the government's perceived poor response,
the strategy appears to have backfired and could potentially bury his
candidacy.
To be sure, the unprecedented flooding points to years of government failure in
urban planning and disaster management preparedness. One-fifth of Metro Manila
is below sea level and is naturally flood-prone. With over 12 million people
crammed in the area, parts of the metropolis are sinking due to heavy water
extraction. Meanwhile, garbage and silt block many of the waterways now needed
for drainage.
Activist groups have directly blamed the government for the floods and
landslides in the north. They claim state projects, including large dams which
released huge amounts of water and contributed to flooding in many provinces,
were from the start more profit than people oriented and poorly designed.
Mining permits were also given to various firms in areas which locals now claim
contributed to massive landslides.
The World Bank has warned that the government should not repeat its past
mistakes when it moves towards reconstruction and rehabilitation. "If people
are living in an unsafe area and their houses are destroyed it is important to
make sure they rebuild their homes in less vulnerable places," said Abhas Jha,
disaster risk management coordinator for the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific
region. "No one can control natural hazards like storms and earthquakes, but a
well-planned reconstruction can prevent people from living in the flood plain
or building houses that are unsafe."
The disaster could motivate political movements. Former president and political
kingmaker Fidel Ramos has suggested that the time is ripe for Filipinos to
elect a "green president" at the next election, a candidate focused on
sustainable development including better land usage and ways to decongest Metro
Manila and not just ramping up economic growth figures.
In 2007, Arroyo presided over the fastest economic growth in the Philippines in
31 years, a time when she considered Ramos among her political allies. But the
recent crisis has revealed clearly her administration's lame duck status before
next year's polls and increasingly it seems she will be remembered more for her
lack of preparedness when disaster struck.
Joel D Adriano is an independent consultant and award-winning freelance
journalist. He was a sub-editor for the business section of The Manila Times
and writes for ASEAN BizTimes, Safe Democracy and People's Tonight.
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