The shape of things to come in Indonesia
By Jacqueline Hicks
JAKARTA - Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's announcement late on
Wednesday of his government's new cabinet was a function of a complicated
political calculation. The new ministerial lineup has been met with both
optimism and reservation due to its mix of respected technocrats and political
appointees with little expertise over their given portfolios.
Yet the overall performance of Yudhoyono's freshly re-elected government will
depend on much more than the new ministers' capabilities. As his last term
demonstrated, the relationship between the government and parliament can make
or break the passage of reformist legislation. Where government policy was
often pigeonholed or watered down by the House of Representatives (DPR) during
Yudhoyono's first five-year term, this time around it appears he has the
numbers to push his
agenda with more force.
Over the past five years, political parties often postured on populist issues
rather than undertake the hard work of ironing out the details of complex
reform legislation. Proposed new laws on the corruption court, special economic
zones and judicial power were backlogged while DPR members jostled to be seen
as sufficiently Islamic or economically nationalist. When the DPR's term was
set to expire, dozens of bills were suddenly rushed in parliamentary sessions
that failed to meet quorums.
There will likely be a chance to improve some of these laws in the next
session. A coalition of anti-corruption nongovernmental organizations has
already said they will in the coming weeks bring the corruption court law to
judicial review. With greater parliamentary numbers, Yudhoyono's government may
even bid to revisit the controversial labor law, which was blocked by the DPR
in 2006 because it was considered too pro-business.
With 26% of the legislature's seats, Yudhoyono's Democrat Party controls nearly
four times the number it did during his first term. If the four Islamic parties
which supported the president's election campaign are added, the ruling
coalition has an automatic parliamentary majority of 56%. Another boost came
recently when the Golkar party, which had split from Yudhoyono to field its own
presidential candidate during the elections, opted to return to the ruling
fold.
With their assumed numbers, the ruling coalition accounts for a commanding 74%
of parliamentary seats. Aburizal Bakrie, a Cabinet minister in Yudhoyono's
first term whose family maintains sprawling business interests, won Golkar's
chairmanship two weeks ago. In a conciliatory gesture, he promptly elevated
Rizal Mallarangeng, a former senior strategist in Yudhoyono's election
campaign, to Golkar's executive board.
The allure of power has also drawn in at least half of the country's top
political couple - Taufik Kiemas and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Kiemas was supported by the Democrat Party to win the prestigious but largely
symbolic post as speaker of the upper house (MPR). Megawati, who placed second
at the July presidential poll and legally challenged the election results, is
Yudhoyono's arch rival and the two are known to share strained personal
relations.
Both Kiemas and Megawati's daughter, Puan, had been vocal in their support for
PDI-P members to be included into Yudhoyono's cabinet, in direct contrast to
Megawati's opposition. Despite reports of last-minute negotiations, Megawati
stood firm and refused to sanction any such cooperation. She did, however,
politically hedge by declaring her party a "critical and strategic partner of
the government".
What this all spells for the PDI-P's internal politics will become clearer in
the coming days, but one can guess at its impact on Megawati's familial
relations. In any case, Kiemas and Puan's rapprochement with Yudhoyono means
that there is likely to be much more cooperation between the two parties than
in the previous five years, when they were often at loggerheads in parliament.
Rule by consensus
The government may also find it easier to push through legislation as it now
has more influence within the DPR's 11 commissions, where parliamentary debates
and decisions take place. In contrast to the chaotic scenes of 2004, when a
method to distribute the commission leadership positions could not be agreed, a
recently passed amendment to the law on the administration of parliament gave
the government more control over the process.
Commission leaders can heavily influence the passage of bills through
scheduling debates, deciding on the agenda and conferring with other
parliamentary bodies. The commission chairmen were chosen one week before the
cabinet announcement and could be just as significant to pushing reform as top
ministerial postings.
The Democrat Party took the leadership of three commissions, including two key
ones on law and energy. The four main Islamic parties in Yudhoyono's coalition
were each allocated the chairmanship of one commission, while PDI-P and Golkar,
which placed second and third respectively at this year's legislative polls,
each gained two.
Golkar secured two relatively influential commissions - one on internal affairs
and another on investment - after what one Golkar member called a
"consolidation meeting" between the Democrat Party and new Golkar chairman
Bakrie. Political horse-trading was also more than likely behind the
appointment of a PDI-P member to head another high-profile commission on
finance and banking.
The moderate Islamic party, the PKB, took leadership of the commission that
oversees religious and social affairs. The commission was at the heart of
debates on the controversial anti-pornography law which threatened to
criminalize kissing in public, erotic dancing and showing certain parts of the
body.
Although it was a member of Yudhoyono's own party who headed the commission
that pushed for the controversial bill, the PKB's recent appointment is being
viewed by some as a move to counterbalance the inclusion of Suryadharma Ali,
the head of the more conservative PPP Islamic party, as minister for religion
in the new cabinet.
If this all seems like a cynical power share among a small group of political
elites, that's because in some ways it is. The deal-making in the division of
commissions and the Democrat's overtures towards Golkar and PDI-P, even when
the president already had a clear parliamentary majority, point in that
direction.
That's partially because the vast majority of bills are passed through a
process of negotiation and consensus rather than through a democratic vote.
This means that the government must obtain as much parliamentary support as
possible to assure the passage, without major amendments, of its legislative
program. This style of consensus politics makes it difficult to hold parties
accountable for their actions. Without a vote tally, it is often impossible to
know what a party supported or blocked as many internal discussions are closed
to the public.
To be sure, Yudhoyono will not have it all his way no matter how qualified his
ministers or how many parties he has on his side. Past experience shows that
coalitions are highly volatile and Yudhoyono's is likewise bound to face
tensions and dissent. To mitigate those risks, he has introduced "political
contracts" for his coalition partners to sign, but it is a symbolic gesture
with no legal binding.
Yet there are already signs that the new parliamentary session could be
smoother for the government. The passage by the outgoing parliament in
September of the 2010 budget bill effectively dissolved potential blocks on one
of the most highly politicized issues of the last session - Yudhoyono's drive
to reduce market-distorting fuel price subsidies. If the global price of crude
oil rises above the assumptions built into the 2010 state budget, the
government has the authority to raise fuel prices by as much as 10% without
seeking DPR consent.
The next five years will undoubtedly witness new kinds of parliamentary delays
and blockages resulting from the seen and unseen intricate dynamics of
Indonesian politics. However, the level of support for the new government, from
both inside and outside the political establishment, gives it an unprecedented
opportunity to build on the stability already achieved to push through
important reforms.
Dr Jacqueline Hicks is a political analyst based in Jakarta. She may be
reached at hicks.jacky@gmail.com.
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