As ASEAN dithers, the US circles
By Simon Roughneen
HUA HIN, Thailand - While the bland regimen of inter-governmental summits does
not usually spark juxtaposition with, say, Bob Dylan, there was a mocking
appropriateness to the American singer's The Times They Are A Changin' ringing
through the lobby at the Hua Hin Sheraton, one of the venues for 15th
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held over the past
weekend.
Times might be changing across the 10-state regional bloc [1], but whether this
means lofty goals, like implementing an ASEAN community by 2015, will be
realized any time soon still seems unlikely. Outgoing ASEAN chair and Thai
Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, spoke of "realizing a people-centered ASEAN
community", but a good post-summit press sound bite does not
easily translate into a viable policy platform.
Indeed, such grandiose language risks generating false expectations of making
ASEAN appear more like a nascent European Union (EU)-style body than is the
case. Walter Lohman, head of the Asia section of the Heritage Foundation, a
US-based conservative think-tank said, "At best, ASEAN economic integration
will mean a broad lowering of trade and investment barriers."
However, even the wheels of that project are spinning in the political sands.
With Thailand and the Philippines failing to cut a deal on rice trade over the
weekend, a bilateral roadblock has been raised that will impede the goal of an
ASEAN free-trade area by January 1, 2010.
In what was meant to be the highlight of the meeting, ASEAN inaugurated a new
Inter-governmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR). This features a majority
of government appointees, and can only promote human rights as a concept, with
no enforcement mechanism to take countries to task for human-rights abuses.
Government-centered, rather than people-centered, some said on the meeting's
sidelines.
Such a low expected yield does not augur well for growth toward an ASEAN
community. "The idea of an economic community is an ideal, and, given the
implementation of other mechanisms such as the human-rights community, a goal
that will not be reached in any substantive form," said Bridget Welsh of the
Singapore Management University.
Some of the changes in ASEAN seem retrograde. According to the final ASEAN
summit statement, the grouping "had extensive, open and fruitful discussions
under the theme of 'Enhancing Connectivity, Empowering Peoples'." Yet some
people were in fact disempowered at the meeting, symbolic of the millions
disenfranchised across the diverse region.
A scheduled meeting between heads of government and civil society groups from
across ASEAN was scuttled, as five governments - Singapore, Cambodia, Laos, the
Philippines and Myanmar - refused to meet the delegates selected for the ASEAN
People's Forum, a gathering of non-governmental leaders from across the region,
and instead put forward government-appointed candidates.
The Myanmar representatives were said to include two former junta
anti-narcotics officials, according to Myanmar human-rights activist Khin Ohn
Mar, who was selected to represent her country by the ASEAN People's Forum.
Substantial differences
There are still substantial political and economic differences between ASEAN
countries. Singapore is an authoritarian city-state, but one of the most modern
economies in the world. Indonesia is a vast, poly-religious democracy stretched
over 17,000 islands. Thailand remains politically divided and unstable, with a
Muslim rebellion in its south, partly paralleled by the Philippines, whose
politics remain mired in the clutches of a wealthy and connected oligarchy.
Newer ASEAN members, such as Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar, are among Asia's
poorest.
Such disparities go against the grain of economic integration experiences
elsewhere, such as in the EU, where political and economic gaps between
countries must be narrowed before a candidate country can join the club. Still,
the impression given at the meeting was of an ASEAN - and an Asia - on the up
and up.
After the ASEAN members held their series of meetings, the proceedings moved to
include heads of government from Asia's giants: China, Japan and India, as well
as Australia, New Zealand and South Korea. The ASEAN secretary general, Surin
Pitsuwan, spoke in faux-diligent terms about "not disappointing the
international community" by "undertaking our heavy responsibility to pull the
world economy along".
China and India will both soon launch free-trade areas with ASEAN, and
pan-Asian cooperation has been stepped up in areas such as currency support and
infrastructure funding. On Monday, Malaysia and New Zealand signed a free-trade
agreement that is hoped will increase their US$1.8 billion in bilateral trade.
Under the agreement to come into effect in 2010, Malaysia will eliminate import
taxes on 10,293 products by 2016. New Zealand will end import tariffs on 7,238
products imported from Malaysia by 2016.
Statements released after the summit suggested that Asia needed to boost
domestic consumption and lessen export reliance on the debt-addled US and
European consumer markets.
In July, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that the US was "back" in
Southeast Asia. Despite his statements suggesting that East Asia "should lead
the world", Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama wants the US involved in his
East Asia Community (EAC) brainchild, perhaps after realizing that his
leadership claims might be taken as something of a challenge in Washington. He
might also have broached the idea to needle China, which has its own ideas on
how to take Asian economic development forward.
In any case, his about-turn might be a more realistic assessment of the numbers
- despite the debt-laden US economy. Arpitha Bykere is senior Asia analyst at
Roubini Global Economics - which is run by Nouriel Roubini, the "Dr Doom" who
predicted the 2008 economic crisis. Bykere said that Asia would remain
economically dependent on the US for at least five to 10 years. "In 2008, US
and EU consumption amounted to US$19 trillion, while Asian consumption was less
than US$5 trillion."
The first US-ASEAN summit will take place in Singapore in November, the same
week that Obama meets his Chinese counterpart, President Hu Jintao. While
economic issues will doubtless dominate the agenda, both meetings should give a
good indication of international policy towards military-run Myanmar going
forward.
Rights abuses
As ever, Myanmar was a key ASEAN summit issue - at least to those watching from
the outside. Aside from the Japanese Foreign Ministry, whose spokesperson gave
a fairly detailed account of what Myanmar Prime Minister General Thein Sein
told the ASEAN/Japan summit, there was scant official comment on Myanmar. The
country, known also as Burma, received a mere two-line mention in the final
ASEAN chair's statement.
This despite pro-democracy Aung San Suu Kyi being sentenced to an extra 18
months house arrest on August 11 for breaking the terms of her previous
incarceration for hosting an unregistered American guest who swam, apparently
unannounced and undetected by junta security, across the lake to Suu Kyi's
Yangon home.
The sentencing at the time prompted a relatively strong statement from the Thai
premier, in his role as ASEAN chair, when he asked that the sentence be
revoked. Only two months has passed, Suu Kyi is still in detention, and many at
the meeting questioned the official reticence on the issue.
Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya told the media at the summit that "there
has been some progress recently, with Suu Kyi's letter to Myanmar President
General Than Shwe followed by two meetings with a junta representative, and
another meeting between Suu Kyi and foreign diplomats".
Yet she is still under house arrest and more than 2,000 political prisoners
remain in jail. Myanmar's flawed 2008 constitution will be the bedrock for
elections slated for 2010, leaving the military in command, irrespective of
what result the elections throw up. Meanwhile, the eastern borderlands are
tense, as the junta and ethnic militias gear up for a potentially-devastating
new round of civil conflict, all in the name of the Myanmar regime centralizing
control ahead of the elections.
This has the potential to send new legions of refugees into Thailand, China and
perhaps elsewhere in the region, and could perhaps undermine current and future
investment plans by Southeast Asian and other states in Myanmar, which remains
under Western investment sanctions.
Despite the obvious threat to regional security posed by Myanmar, and the
rhetorical assent promoting democracy and human rights in the ASEAN charter,
old-school "non-interference" in the internal affairs of other countries is
clearly still standard operating procedure in the grouping.
Thai premier Abhisit, for one, seemed resigned to the prospect of renewed
fighting in Myanmar. When questioned on this topic by reporters after his
meeting with Thein Sein, he said, "Thailand stands ready to do its humanitarian
duty, as always," when the inevitable flight of refugees from Myanmar enters
Thai territory.
It thus appears that ASEAN has regressed to its old habits on Myanmar, perhaps
in part due to the new US policy which will combine engagement through talks
with continued sanctions. Abhisit told the media at the summit that "we always
felt that engagement is the right approach" - even though the US and the EU
retain sanctions on the Myanmar junta over its abysmal rights record.
ASEAN let Thein Sein off the hook at the meeting, and appears to be coasting on
the back of a misinterpreted US policy shift. "How can the new US approach
vindicate ASEAN when ASEAN's engagement, whatever you call it - constructive,
flexible or forward - has proven to be ineffective?" asked Pavin
Chachavalpongpun, a visiting fellow at the Institute for Southeast Asian
Studies in Singapore.
Despite the reality that the US has not changed its policy on Myanmar, the
message is getting blurred. There may be an impact on Southeast Asia, beyond
Myanmar, where despite summit pledges to connect ASEAN peoples and promote
human rights, the reality remains disconnected. That's seen in authorities in
Vietnam jailing reporters and clamping down on religious minorities.
Cambodia is implementing restrictive new press laws, and Malaysia continues to
use a draconian colonial-era Internal Security Act when it wishes to restrict
political protest and freedom of expression. A spokesman for the US Embassy in
Bangkok told Asia Times Online that the US "supports the establishment of the
AICHR, and welcomes the new focus on human rights in ASEAN" - despite the new
commission's circumscribed mandate.
With US regional influence in the balance, if not on the wane, it is unclear
how the Obama administration can or will leverage its Asia policy. The November
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and ASEAN meetings should reveal whether the
US will base its Asia policy on getting its own economic house in order.
This could mean putting political issues on the back burner, as per Obama's
recent refusal to meet the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, for
fear of offending a China that is becoming increasingly intertwined with the US
economy and its future sustainability. But Obama's inchoate approach to foreign
policy in the region is starting to stoke criticism.
"The Obama administration has failed to effectively signal that it genuinely
cares about human rights in Asia," said academic Welsh.
Note
1. ASEAN comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia.
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Simon Roughneen is a roving freelance journalist. He has reported from
over 20 countries and is currently based in Southeast Asia.
(Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about
sales, syndication and
republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road,
Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
