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Israel raises the ante against Iran
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's "charm" offensive against Iran in the
United States is ominously reminiscent of the sabre-rattling before the
invasion of Iraq. This time, however, the stakes are higher as the way is being
opened for another disastrous war in the Middle East, since Israel is incapable
of peace with the Palestinians. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 13, '08)
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IRAN VOTES
Expect more of the same
Iranians go to the polls on Friday to elect a new Parliament. With
conservatives expected to retain their dominance of the 290-seat legislature,
much attention is focused elsewhere - on the country's presidential elections
next year, and the race for the White House in the United States.
(Mar 13, '08)
'Terror' attack a warning shot for
Beijing
Chinese authorities have linked the foiled hijacking of a plane bound for
Beijing to independence fighters in the remote northwestern Uyghur autonomous
region of Xinjiang, causing much concern about security for the Summer
Olympics. The investigation has revealed a spate of other "terror" plots and
sent a clear message to the government. - Fong Tak-ho
(Mar 13, '08)
 ASIA
HAND
The politics of revenge
in Thailand
Hopes that last December's elections - which on the surface brought
back democracy and at least symbolically sent the military back to the
barracks - would restore political stability and usher in a new era of national
reconciliation have already yielded to new worries of a sustained and
potentially more violent political conflict. - Shawn W Crispin
(Mar 13, '08)
Afghanistan: New envoy, old
challenges
Norwegian diplomat Kai Eide, the United Nations' new envoy to Afghanistan, has
been given a "strong mandate" to tackle the country's myriad problems. But from
the deteriorating security situation to poppy production, he has an almost
Herculean job on his hands. - Sharif Ghalib (Mar
13, '08)
Turkey and Iraq take a step at a
time
The Turkish incursion into northern Iraq against Kurdish rebels achieved what
it was meant to, in that Ankara demonstrated its willingness to undertake such
a bold move. The next step will be more difficult: national-regional
delegations from the Iraqi and the Turkish sides to take small steps for
cross-border cooperation. - Robert M Cutler
(Mar 13, '08)
Sri Lanka's Tigers in crisis
A series of military and political defeats has devastated the Liberation Tigers
of Tamil Eelam, producing the most acute crisis of the secessionist group's
33-year existence. Damaging government attacks on the rebels' infrastructure,
and inner turmoil among its leaders, appear to constitute an irreversible trend
that could portend a final collapse. - G H Peiris
(Mar 13, '08)
Fallon falls: Iran should worry
Admiral William Fallon's resignation as the United States' top commander in the
Middle East removes one of the most outspoken opponents of the George W Bush
administration's hard line on Iran. Defense Secretary Robert Gates immediately
dismissed as "ridiculous" suggestions that Fallon's departure signaled that the
US planned to go to war with Iran, but certainly now "all options" are back on
the table. - Gareth Porter (Mar 12,
'08)
COMMENT
American Icarus flirted with fire
The widespread view is that US CENTCOM commander Admiral William "Fox" Fallon
was sacrificed by the George W Bush administration because he disagreed with
its policies on Iran while also saving the US from marauding Chinese. This is
bunk. Fallon fell because he committed a far worse crime for a military veteran
- he talked out of turn. - Mark Perry
(Mar 12, '08)
While China marches, the US guesses
To the US, there's nothing new about China's continuing military development,
it's the unsaid intentions behind the buildup that are worrying Washington.
Without disclosing its own strategies, Washington wants to know what Beijing is
up to. But obfuscation is an art of war, and the Chinese are masters at it. - Law
Siu-lan (Mar 12, '08)
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Golden lifeboats flee the
Titanic
Is there anyone apart from Fed-hired economists still wondering whether the
purchasing price of their pay packet is crumbling? Or why people always turn to
gold at such times? If you're fleeing the family it sure beats trying to carry
around bags of wheat, even when their prices have tripled in a matter of
months. (Mar 12, '08)
THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM, Part 1
A rich free-market legacy - for
some
The
sight of businessmen such as E Stanley O'Neal of
Merrill Lynch and Citigroup's Chuck Prince
pocketing millions of dollars as they quit
companies losing billions in value sticks in the
throat of those whose money has been lost. Even
some congressmen have figured something is wrong
with such rewards for failure. Fair game, say
others. - Henry C K Liu
(Mar 11, '08)
This is the first part of a four-part series
 CAMPAIGN
OUTSIDER
McCain's supremely
cynical VP option
In the US, presidential candidates' running mate choices are almost always
chosen with a sneer toward the electorate and the putative choice does not
always end up sitting a heartbeat from the presidency. The Republicans can take
it to a new level with their selection this year. (Mar
11, '08)
Muhammad Cohen puts the US presidential campaign into
sharper focus from afar.
Bush family touched by
subprime crisis
The subprime financial crisis, which started with low-skilled workers in the US
struggling to come up with their mortgage payments, has now worked itself
through the country's ranks to lap at the country's elite - including the
family of former president George H W Bush. - F William Engdahl
(Mar 11, '08)
A way to stave off Iran sanctions
Indonesia, by abstaining from the United Nations Security Council vote to
impose a third round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, showed up
many of its fellow travelers in the Non-Aligned Movement. With their two-thirds
majority at the UN, NAM states, given the political will, have the power to
influence this major international crisis by pre-empting further UN action
against Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 11, '08)
COMMENT
Big bang or chaos: What's Israel
up to?
Whether Israel's military logic revolved around the "chaos theory" or the "big
bang", its iron-fist intervention in Gaza was neither to send a message to the
Israeli public nor to "commit genocide". Rather, Israel's plans are regional,
with Gaza being a testing ground. - Ramzy Baroud
(Mar 11, '08)
Musharraf faces bench's fury
The alliance that plans to form Pakistan's new government has made it clear it
will reinstate all 63 senior judges sacked for refusing to recognize an
emergency order introduced by President Pervez Musharraf last year. Then
Musharraf will be asked to step down, and if he refuses, impeachment
proceedings will be started. (Mar 11, '08)
 SUN
WUKONG
Guangdong looks
for delta embrace
A rising star of China's Communist Party is looking to create a unified trade
zone incorporating Hong Kong, Macau and Guangdong province, a move that would
help his own ascendancy while giving a boost to the Pearl Delta region, where
industry is being eroded by rising costs. - Wu Zhong
(Mar 11, '08)
Why Boeing lost the $40bn tanker
deal
Boeing is still smarting after losing out on a US$40 billion US government
contract to build a new aerial refueling tanker jet, believing it had a more
cost-effective product. But that's not the point. The tankers are not just big
flying bladders of fuel. They are a critical component of the George W Bush and
neo-conservative foreign policy of being able to bomb any country, any time.
Crucially, then, the winning design by Northrup-Grumman and the European EADS
aerospace consortium has a fuel cargo capacity almost 25% greater than
Boeing's. - Julian Delasantellis (Mar 10,
'08)
Iran shifts focus fully on Iraq
Whether it's a part of a secret deal with the United States or not, Iran does
appear to be distancing itself from its proxies in the Arab world, at the same
time showing a free hand in Iraq. The days of Hezbollah in Lebanon could be
numbered. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 10, '08)
 SPENGLER
Should Islam be blamed
for 'barbaric' acts?
The issue of Muslim "barbarism", including honor killings, genital mutilation
and other forms of violence against women, has risen in prominence in Europe 's
political agenda. The question appears to be: Do Muslims commit barbaric acts
because they are bad Muslims or because they are good Muslims? But it's the
wrong question. (Mar 10, '08)
A new democratic era in
Malaysia
Despite earning 51% of the popular vote, Saturday's general elections were a
stunning setback for Malaysia's long-ruling Barisan Nasional and Prime
Minister Abdullah Badawi. Voters, who in the past may have tolerated corruption
and authoritarianism in exchange for stability, have sent a clear message for
change. If the transition is handled gracefully, Malaysia will have taken an
all-important step in its political development. - Ioannis Gatsiounis
(Mar 10, '08)
 CHAN
AKYA
Euro-trash
Europe's leaders are too busy destroying their economies to notice the grand
opportunity to assume global leadership. The European Central Bank is also far
from being the paragon of virtue that many economists consider it. A failure to
grasp this dynamic means that the rise of the euro against the US dollar will
be in vain. (Mar 10, '08)
US can fast exit from bad times
The prolonged downturn in the Japanese economy that followed its 1990s' real
estate boom hangs like a specter over the US in its post-housing bubble mess.
Yet there is reason to believe that the US, though as liable as any country to
hubris, greed, mistakes and misunderstanding, will more quickly pull out of its
present quandary. (Mar 10, '08)
US's fancy guns are trained on China
Just as the Pentagon and its corporate allies touted the "Soviet threat" during
the Cold War to stampede Congress and the US public into supporting
ever-increasing spending on advanced weapons, so a hypothetical "China threat"
is being conjured up to achieve the same purpose - and it's costing
multi-billions of dollars. - Michael T Klare (Mar
7, '08)
War is hell - and hellishly
expensive
The estimated cost of one week of the United States' global wars is US$3.5
billion. But exactly where is that money going? When Congress passed the latest
Pentagon war-fighting supplemental request, it was said to be "for the troops",
but a surprisingly small amount goes to them. Newfangled weapons, private
security contractors and big business eat up a large portion, yet hundreds of
millions of dollars are unaccounted for. - William D Hartung
(Mar 7, '08)
Suspicions over Singapore
jailbreak
The daring and as-yet unexplained escape of Singapore's most wanted terror
fugitive, Mas Selamat Kastari, has called the island nation's terror-fighting
credentials into question. The government's bumbling has stoked speculation of
a cover-up, and until Mas Selamat is caught foreign confidence in Singapore's
security will be hard to restore. - Alex Au
(Mar 7, '08)
 SEX
IN DEPTH
When freaky-deaky
equals hara-kiri
The population of Japan is in decline, the birthrate is plummeting, and the
consequences look grim. Some studies put the blame on Japanese men whose
appetite for masturbation, sex toys and virtual tete-a-tetes is turning
them off the real thing. The future, one might say, is in their hands. - William
Sparrow (Mar 7, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
As alliances shift, Iran wins -
again
The George W Bush administration promoted a Turkey-Israel axis, a Sunni Arab
"axis of fear" and then a Saudi-Israeli nexus, always trying to isolate Iran.
None of these concoctions has worked, and there are even hints that Washington
and Tehran have concluded a secret deal brokered by Saudi Arabia to hammer out
contentious issues. This might be fanciful, but the bottom line is that Iran
sees itself as the ultimate victor of the US war on Iraq. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 6, '08)
Why the dollar is so cheap
When George W Bush was inaugurated in 2001, the euro was trading at 94 cents
and gold cost $266 an ounce. Now they are trading at $1.52 and $985 an ounce.
That is a plain vote of no confidence in the government's economic model, and
international investors are fleeing the dollar for the best available
substitute - the euro and gold. - Peter Morici (Mar
6, '08)
INTERVIEW
Anwar Ibrahim
Anwar to Abdullah: It's nothing
personal
Since his release from prison on politically motivated charges, Malaysian
opposition icon Anwar Ibrahim has refashioned his image as a pious crusader for
social justice and racial equality. Critics say Anwar simply tells people what
they want to hear, but the veteran politician tells Ioannis Gatsiounis he's
matured after his time in the political wilderness and he's fed up with what he
sees as the ruling government's incompetence. (Mar
6, '08)
THE SUBPRIME ICEBERG
A year later, the band plays on
A year after the subprime crisis came to public attention, the rot in the
financial system continues to spread, leaving the US Federal Reserve with
at least one very important question to answer - should it come directly to the
rescue? As the Fed and other actors dance the subprime twostep, the tune is
reminiscent of the music on the Titanic as the lifeboats sailed away. - Julian
Delasantellis (Mar 5, '08)
ASIA
HAND
Mixed
reviews for
Thai capital controls
Thailand's new government, which this week removed capital controls imposed by
its military-led predecessor, seems willing to sacrifice exports for more
domestic demand-led economic growth. Overlooked are other capital controls
still in place, while inflation and the prospect of an ever-stronger currency
will challenge policymakers. - Shawn W Crispin (Mar
5, '08)
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THE SHAPE OF US POPULISM
Part 2:
Long-term effects
of the Civil War
The present deepening and widening financial crisis is laying naked the
wealth-making mechanisms of society's elites while wreaking havoc with the
lives of low-paid workers. It is also making imminent a wave of populist reform
that may extend for several decades. In this are echoes of the New Deal era and
much earlier reactions to economic depressions. - Henry C K Liu
This is the second article in a four-part series
 Part 1:
A rich free-market legacy - for some
THE ROVING EYE
Relax and float south stream
The decision by three Central Asian energy exporters to charge Gazprom a higher
rate for gas it channels to Europe looks like a severe blow to the
Russian company. But US and European hopes that they might secure some
independence from Russia at the other end of the supply chain increasingly look
like wishful thinking. - Pepe Escobar
Big test for Taiwan
prediction market
Taiwan's presidential election this month is more than a challenge for the
island's political heavyweights. It will also test the accuracy of a market
designed to forecast who will come out on top of such contests. Even if real
money cannot be used, a successful outcome will help attract more converts in
Asia to what is becoming a global phenomenon. - Jonathan Adams
In phony-baloney money we trust?
A Ponzi scam is the essence of most bonds these days, in a market predicated on
pure idiocy. With M3 money supply inflating at 17% a year and 10-year bonds
yielding under 4%, buyers are losing purchasing power at 10% a year to lock in
a return of less than 5% a year. Time to yell out: "Caution; professional money
manager at work."
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Heat turns up on
market ideology
The threat climate change poses to humanity demonstrates a failure of market
mechanisms on a vast scale. Government intervention and prioritization of
environmental measures over market ideology is now required. The European
Commission president's recent warning that trade must be subordinated to
ecological objectives is progress - even if the US takes an opposing stance.
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
What is left that is sellable?
Burst credit bubbles, underlined by the Fed's latest Flow of Funds data, and
impairment of US securities mean growth in overseas holdings of US assets has
become unsustainable, forcing the question of how the US will sustain smooth
recycling of its current-account deficits. The concurrent widening of certain
risk premiums and accelerated dollar weakness is no coincidence. (Mar
10, '08)
Doug Noland reviews the previous week's events each Monday.
MARKET RAP
Local
charts handy
in troubled waters
The siren song of an Ambac Financial bail-out was an unreliable guide for US
investors seeking passage through this week's trading shoals. Investors across
Asia also shipped water, but their experience of quieter eddies points to a
continued divergence of currents in the world's financial markets.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the past week's
markets. (Mar 7, '08)
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[Re American
Icarus flirted with fire, Mar 13] ... Fallon's problem is that he was
too honest to be drawn into that game - especially on the subject of Iran. The
excuse for getting rid of him may well have been [Thomas] Barnett's [Esquire]
article, but it wasn't the reason. [Fallon] had become extremely unpopular in
Washington long before that ...
Andrew Langford
USA |
| Go
to Letters to the Editor |
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Microsoft's pants down
Microsoft's top executives have at least one thing in common with their
customers - deep disenchantment with the company's latest products. Email
exchanges at the top also reveal that the software giant lowered its own
requirements so that partner Intel could maintain earnings.
(Mar 7, '08)
Martin J Young
surveys the week's developments in computing,
gaming and gizmos.
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ATol Specials
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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permission.
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(Holdings), Ltd.
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