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Myanmar
faces up to cyclone disaster
With the death of more than 15,000 people and millions missing or homeless
following Saturday's cyclone, the junta in Myanmar is slowly opening its doors
to foreign aid, even though this will expose the full extent of the disaster
and the inadequacy of the government's initial response. At the same time, the
junta is adamant the weekend referendum on a new constitution will go
ahead. - Larry Jagan (May 6, '08)
 Myanmar
cyclone deaths leap to 15,000 (AFP)
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Yes, the Pentagon did want to hit
Iran
Since soon after the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, it has been an open
secret that the George W Bush administration wanted to attack Iran. Now comes
further confirmation from a document quoted in then-under secretary of defense
for policy Douglas Feith's recently published account of Iraq war decisions. It
is confirmed, too, that this was part of a broader plan, explicitly supported
by the US's top military leaders, to also take out Syria, Libya, Sudan and
Somalia. - Gareth Porter. (May 6, '08)
New offer threatens Iran's 'red
line'
The key nations negotiating over Iran's nuclear program hail their latest offer
of incentives for Tehran to give up its uranium-enrichment activities as a part
of a "twin-track strategy", the other being United Nations sanctions. There is
actually a third "war track", the drumbeat of which can be heard in Washington
and Tel Aviv. And further, the incentives directly challenge Iran's "red line".
- Kaveh Afrasiabi (May 6, '08)
China-bashing is a blind man's game
China's renaissance, arguably the most significant story of our time, offers to
the world as much as the world brings to China. Yet some fail to grasp the big
picture, and for them, China's re-emergence generates anxiety. The result is
anti-Chinese rhetoric and behavior that can only generate anti-Western
attitudes within China. Meanwhile Beijing and the West could join forces to
solve global problems. - David Gosset (May 6,
'08)
 SUN
WUKONG
Blowing the whistle
on 'Big Brother'
Fundamental problems exist in China's railway system, not the least of which is
that the behemoth Ministry of Railways is both the monopoly operator and
industry regulator for all rail transport. If this system is not restructured,
nothing will change, and accidents such as the recent crash that claimed 70
lives will continue. - Wu Zhong (May 6, '08)
Military shadow over Nepal
Prachanda, the man who would form Nepal's first Maoist-led government, has some
tough decisions to make as he casts about for coalition partners. His opponents
are wary of plans to integrate the 20,000-strong Maoist militia into the
regular forces, and his vision to split the country into ethnically based
districts alarms many. All the while, the military will be closely watching the
wily Prachanda. - Dhruba Adhikary (May 6,
'08)
South Korea's Sunshine policy strikes
back
Since President Lee Myung-bak took office two months ago, South Korea's
Sunshine engagement policy towards the North has been eclipsed by tough talk
directed at Pyongyang. Now proponents of the concession-based, carrot-laden
approach are fighting back, and they have released statistics they believe will
make Lee see things in a different light. - Sunny Lee
(May 6, '08)
 CAMPAIGN
OUTSIDER
Democrats do have a nominee
No matter who wins this Tuesday's votes in Indiana and North Carolina, the
Democratic US presidential nomination remains a foregone conclusion. But it may
be a different foregone conclusion than the one of two weeks ago. - Muhammad
Cohen (May 5, '08)
Speculators knock OPEC off
oil-price perch
 The
bulk of price gains in oil is attributable not to supply problems but to
speculative activity by hedge funds and others with no direct use for the fuel
beyond profiting from its changing value. The door to much of this unregulated
trade was opened by the US energy futures regulator under the George W Bush
administration. - F William Engdahl (May 5, '08)
Energized Iran builds more bridges
In terms of whom it conducts its energy business with, Iran keeps all its
options open, and it will not allow itself to be pushed out of the European
market as exports are the bridge that will facilitate its all-round integration
with the Western world. Tehran's hectic diplomatic activity in this regard has
put the "Iran Six" countries dealing with its nuclear dossier on the defensive:
none of them wants confrontation with Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar
(May 5, '08)
 SPENGLER
The heart has its own unreason
In one of the weirder acts of recent diplomacy, a delegation of robed and
turbaned Iranian mullahs went to Rome to declare with due solemnity they shared
the pope's view that reason and faith are compatible. The issue,
however, will not be decided by the Iranian clergy or the Holy See,
but by people such as journalist Magdi Allam. - Spengler
(May 5, '08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The last war and the next one
There is no end in sight to the war in Iraq, but United States Secretary of
Defense Robert Gates has been criticizing the military for not getting fully
behind an imperial strategy for "the next war", counterinsurgency battles
across the globe similar to the (futile) one now raging in Sadr City in Bagdad.
- Tom Engelhardt (May 5, '08)
COMMENT
Just blame it on China and India
US President George W Bush's blaming China and India for global warming
and food shortages shows that the rise of these two countries is a problem for
Washington. Besides, the real blame can be placed on Western
over-consumption and exploitation of resources. - Sreeram Chaulia
(May 5, '08)
THE MOGAMBO GURU
Gold price suppression scheme
How long the present relatively low price of gold will stay that way may depend
on whether the US Federal Reserve has sold half the country's gold and if it is
prepared to stop at half. At least that would give us the opportunity to buy
more gold cheaply for a while longer yet. (May 5,
'08)
How under-the-gun Iran plays it
cool
What Iranian leaders dream of is an Iran respected as a major power. To this
end, they have little choice, faced with the enmity of the globe's "sole
superpower", but to employ a sophisticated counter-encirclement foreign policy.
And given President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's place in the country's
politico-religious politics, he might be betting on the usefulness of an
American air assault. - Pepe Escobar (May 2, '08)
Iran moving into the big league
From the Persian Gulf to the Caspian region, the Caucasus, Central Asia, South
Asia and beyond, Iran thanks to its geographical location is an ideal
connecting bridge that has not until now fully exploited its advantageous
equidistance from India and Europe. This is exemplified in the US$7.6 billion
gas pipeline that will flow from Iran to Pakistan to India, and which is
finally close to reality. Tehran is ambitiously moving from regional power to
global power. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 2, '08)
 CHAN
AKYA
Abandoning
USS Titanic
As the world comes to grips with declining United
States power both in political and economic terms, it is surreal that global
media appear so keen to paper over the cracks. But with even the corrupt and
unctuous Gulf dictators rebelling against the US dollar, this is the beginning
of the end. (May 2, '08)
Taliban claim victory from a
defeat
In their first offensive since arriving last month, thousands of US Marines
have captured the town of Garmsir in the southern Afghan province of Helmand
from the Taliban. The Taliban are unconcerned. They claim the mass of foreign
troops will now be tied down chasing shadows and battling drug cartels, while
the Taliban concentrate on the east of the country. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(May 2, '08)
 ASIA
HAND
What's eating Thai Tesco?
British-based superstore operator Tesco has notched up remarkable growth in
Thailand, where shoppers appreciate the clean and air-conditioned environment
of its outlets along with the low prices. With success comes enemies, some
armed, and government legislation that could curb growth. Now the company is
fighting back in the courts, risking even more local wrath. - Shawn W Crispin
(May 2, '08)
Bernanke takes one more gamble
 United
States Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's decision to cut key interest
rates one more time was always in the cards. More astonishing was the scant
concern he showed towards the inflationary risks inherent in his actions over
the past few months, risks that food riots make clear are already a harsh
reality in the world beyond the US. - Julian Delasantellis
(May 1, '08)
Economy takes US center stage
A major new survey finds that oil prices and other economic issues are edging
out foreign policy concerns on the US public's worry list. Seventy percent of
respondents say they worry "a lot" about soaring energy costs, and the survey's
aptly named "Anxiety Indicator" shows that 84% worry about the way things are
going for the US. - Jim Lobe (May 1, '08)
The heat is on Muqtada
The fierce battle raging in Baghdad's Sadr City between Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi
Army and United States and Iraqi forces has claimed more than 1,000 lives over
the past few weeks. What is not clear is the motive behind the offensive
against the Shi'ite militia. It could be the Americans, trying to nip in the
bud any united front between Muqtada and Sunnis. Or the Iranians, wanting to
eliminate a potential thorn in their side. Either way, Muqtada has a fight on
his hands. - Sami Moubayed (May 1, '08)
China's pride versus Western prejudice
The Chinese government did not expect the Olympic Games to be politicized to
the extent they have been and the result is a big loss for Beijing. It has also
damaged the image of China's "harmonious society" and prompted a new wave of
Chinese nationalism. Many Chinese now feel, for the first time in many years,
antagonized by Western ideology. - Da Wei (May 1,
'08)
Push comes to shove in Afghanistan
In his latest assessment, US President George W Bush admits it's going to be a
"long struggle" in Afghanistan (this after seven years of fighting the
Taliban). US Marines, fresh in the country, are venturing into uncharted
territory, while more coalition troops are being deployed. For the Taliban,
having made space for themselves in their strategic backyard in Pakistan
through dubious peace deals, a new battle has now begun. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 30, '08)
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Fuel
tax cut
running on empty
US presidential candidates pledging to cut fuel taxes blithely ignore the fact
they are not placed to make that happen. As bad, it is not what their country
needs in response to rising prices. Worse, any such cuts would hit funding of
transport infrastructure that already lags behind its counterparts in Asia. - Julian
Delasantellis
Food-crisis anger
turns on UN bodies
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations is the latest
pan-global organization established to ease poverty in the world's
less-developed and largely rural economies to face bitter criticism as soaring
prices of essential commodities expose a lack of preparation and investment in
agriculture.
THE BEAR'S LAIR
Draining
national prosperity
Relief engendered by the latest US GDP figures is misplaced, given recent
monetary and fiscal inputs. Gradually increasing output and the optimistic
stock market will sooner or later be confronted by consumer price figures. At
that point, the US will suffer a monetary and political crisis. Awkwardly, that
is more likely to occur before November's US presidential election. - Martin
Hutchinson
Hong Kong savers
seek yuan protection
Residents in Hong Kong and other parts of greater China are increasingly moving
their savings into mainland accounts to escape the impact of falling local
currencies and low interest rates. With the yuan forecast to gain 15%
against the US dollar by the end of the year, the flood of transfers is likely
to grow. - Olivia Chung
Massage for number crunchers
Few things beat a massage for making one feel better, especially if you're a
politician or central banker with a bunch of numbers that would put you out of
a job if the public saw their naked form. Unemployment? Give a squeeze here.
Inflation? A dexterous bit of pressure will make it look less life-threatening.
And for the really ugly bits, try some hedonic adjustment.
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CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
More than one step backwards
American economist Hyman Minsky warned a decade ago that evolution in the
financial world is not necessarily a progressive process. Since that insight, a
whole new financial structure appears to have evolved, one that is definitely
retrograde with its need for ever-expanding non-productive debt.
(May 5, '08)
Doug Noland reviews the previous week's events each Monday.
MARKET RAP
Pacific remains pacified
Traders taking a break from their labors in Asia could do so reasonably
satisfied with unfolding events. Once heady share-price declines appear to be
halted with prospects of strengthening markets ahead. That apparent local
stability may be welcome if the sense of panic returns to Wall Street.
(May 2, '08)
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets
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I saw Iron Man last week and joined millions in enjoying the
pyrotechnics and CGI wizardry. But I wonder how many Americans appreciated the
symbolism inherent in the storyline. ... The "bad' Iron Man housing Obadiah is
bigger and darker than Stark's smaller and shinier "good" Iron Man. But they
are both using the same American predilection for violent solutions. At the
end, one is a winner, the other a loser, and that's all the morality most
Americans need to see in their movies. And wars.
Hardy Campbell
Houston, Texas
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to Letters to the Editor |
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ATol Specials
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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