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ATol is taking a break, we will next upload on Monday, December 1.

Thailand crashes and burns

The brazen occupation of Bangkok's international airport by anti-government protesters takes Thailand's political conflict to a point of no return. The relatively peaceful crisis is now on the brink of all-out violence. And the longer the government refuses calls for it to step down, the greater the chance of the military making a move. - Shawn W Crispin (Nov 26,'08)

Pyongyang floats a border bluff
The latest risky business from North Korea is the gamble that shutting the South Korean border will freeze out Seoul and possibly wring better concessions from the United States at next month's nuclear talks. North Korea is betting the US won't jeopardize good news in President George W Bush's final days in office by strongly supporting the South. - Donald Kirk (Nov 25,'08)

Tibetans stick to the 'middle way'
The "middle way" approach, devised by Tibetan exiles in the 1980s, calls for greater autonomy from China by non-violent means. After 20 years, it has yielded few meaningful results. Even so, a special gathering of prominent Tibet activists - minus the Dalai Lama - has decided to continue the strategy in order to strengthen the political system of the exile community. - Denis Burke (Nov 26,'08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Weapons come second
Any new era in Pentagon spending would have to begin with a recognition that enduring security is not attained by threat or fiat, nor is it bought with staggering billions of dollars. It is built with other nations. Weapons come second. - Frida Berrigan (Nov 26,'08)

BOOK REVIEW
Military reform 30 years on
America’s Defense Meltdown edited by Winslow T Wheeler
After reading this book one can only conclude that with the US military's budget at some trillion dollars annually, and mismanagement and bureaucracy at their highest levels since the Vietnam war, the time is ripe for major reform in the Pentagon and the military-industrial complex. But the authors don't just criticize, they also offer sober, detailed solutions. - David Isenberg (Nov 26,'08)

Closing time for India's Iranian cafes
Famous for cranky admonishments and delectable baked goods, longstanding Iranian cafes have literally been the cornerstones of Mumbai's cosmopolitan milieu. Yet of the some 350 shops serving bun maska to faithful customers in the 1950s, barely 25 survive. Time, and high real estates prices, are taking their toll on one of Mumbai's most delicious traditions. - Raja Murthy (Nov 26,'08)

SPEAKING FREELY
China's cyber-warriors challenge India
A new wave of Chinese cyber-warriors, numbering in the millions across the globe, presents a threat to India's security. Chinese cyber-nationalism is a powerful and dangerous tool that could be used to demoralize the Indian psyche, giving China the opportunity to defeat India and redraw its borders according to strategic interests without the need for a ground war. - Abanti Bhattacharya (Nov 26,'08)



A brave new world awaits
Appointments by Barack Obama suggest the United States president-elect has a firm grasp on the potential future outlined in US intelligence's latest peek ahead to the year 2025. For one thing, his new economists seem well positioned to manage "the unprecedented transfer of wealth from West to East". - David Isenberg (Nov 25,'08)

Obama not a ghost of Clinton past
President-elect Barack Obama's economic team includes some familiar faces, attracting censure that too many come by way of experience with the governments of former president Bill Clinton. Yet the manner in which Obama has set out his intentions to remedy America's financial crisis should dispel any suggestion that this is a Clinton lll administration. - Julian Delasantellis (Nov 25,'08)

Geithner a balm for Japan's Clinton trauma
Japan's experiences of dealing with Democratic presidents has given them cause to be wary of the latest change in the White House. The appointment of Japanese-speaking Timothy Geithner as the next Treasury secretary will go some way to easing their concerns. - Kosuke Takahashi (Nov 25,'08)

THE ROVING EYE
Bush comfortable on the SOFA
When Iraqi parliamentarians vote on Wednesday on whether or not to endorse a security pact with the United States, many of them will not have had the opportunity to study the finer points. Perhaps all they need to know is that the Pentagon and President George W Bush are very comfortable with it. - Pepe Escobar (Nov 25,'08)

IMF's double-edged rescue for Pakistan
The International Monetary Fund's US$7.6 billion credit line will help Pakistan avert an economic meltdown caused by the government's "trust deficit", but analysts are afraid the harsh conditions linked to the deal could convert the financial mess into a political crisis. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider (Nov 25,'08)

SUN WUKONG
Regions won't dance
to Beijing's tune

Controversial comments by the Communist Party chief of Guangdong province in defiance of Beijing's plans to help small businesses ride out the financial crisis could highlight power struggles in the party or political ladder-climbing, but are more likely indicative of China's growing trend towards regionalism. This places a huge question mark over the 20 million rural migrant workers in the country's richest province. - Wu Zhong (Nov 25,'08)

THE MOGAMO GURU
G-20 weenies on a golden spit
The Washington summit of 20 leading industrialized nations promised to keep spending money like mad instead of doing what should have been done, which was to install a gold standard. Dumb!! But it means that price inflation is a certainty, which is great for gold. Whee!!! (Nov 25,'08)

Balanced between Bali and Obama
President-elect Barack Obama's special relationship with key anti-terrorism ally Indonesia gives him a head start in tackling the complex religious, political and economic factors shaping the destiny of this strategic regional actor. But it has also raised local expectations to giddy heights at a time when the success of the nation's US-backed policy to root out extremists remains in doubt. - Simon Roughneen (Nov 25,'08)

SPENGLER
Obama's one-trick wizards
President-elect Barack Obama's prospective cabinet is being packed with bankers who fouled their own nests and then secured bailouts from the US taxpayer. Now they will be allowed to play with the federal government budget for the next four years. If these one-trick leverage wizards are the best and the brightest of 2008, America is in very deep trouble. (Nov 24,'08)

US military ripe for a fight with Obama
President-elect Barack Obama inherits a chasm of mistrust between the Pentagon and the White House, regardless of whether Defense Secretary Robert Gates stays on. First, Obama has to avoid a confrontation over the "don't ask, don't tell" policy on the sexuality of the forces. Then there are the deep splits sparked by the difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan: the counter-insurgency advocates who feel besieged by the proponents of the "AirLand Battle" doctrine, aside from those who favor post-combat "nation-building". - Mark Perry (Nov 24,'08)

COMMENT
A new spin on Iran's nuclear fuel
The latest anti-Iran spin is that Tehran already has enough nuclear fuel for one bomb and that its nuclear capability will increase substantially in the near future. Combined with the "Clintonization" of the incoming Barack Obama administration, there is little chance of a major change in Washington's Iran policy while it remains influenced by the wheels of the "Fourth Estate". - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 24,'08)

INTERVIEW
Taliban not talking peace
Mullah Mohammad Hasan Rahmani
The close adviser to Taliban leader Mullah Omar categorically rules out any notion that the Taliban are a part of - or even plan to be - any peace process over Afghanistan. It is all propaganda aimed to weaken the Taliban and their jihad, Hasan Rahmani tells Syed Saleem Shahzad. And the Taliban will continue their policy of attacking the supply lines of coalition forces. (Nov 24,'08)

Last-minute scramble over Iraq's pact
Iraq's controversial Status of Forces Agreement with the United States, which calls for withdrawal of all US troops by 2011 yet gives the US long-term privileges, has divided Iraqi politics like never before. If parliament fails to reach consensus on Wednesday, a delay may deepen divisions among Shi'ites, Kurds and Sunnis. There are still many deals to be cut before this unpopular pact goes through. - Sami Moubayed (Nov 24,'08)

More turmoil in beleaguered Bangkok
Thousands of anti-government protesters laid siege to government offices and police headquarters in Bangkok on Monday, even as embattled Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat announced he would neither resign nor disperse demonstrations by force. Instead, a highly anticipated high court ruling may bring a legalistic end to the escalating conflict. - Shawn W Crispin (Nov 24,'08)

Great game of hunting pirates
Under the rubric of the fight against sea piracy, an entirely different template of maritime activity is taking place by interventionist powers. The United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union have stepped out of the European theater and entered the Indian Ocean, as has India. Russia is seeking a reopening of its Soviet-era naval base in Aden. There is a strong suspicion a great game is unfolding. - M K Bhadrakumar (Nov 21,'08)

The black hole in financial markets
Americans are beginning to understand how much of their economy depended on the housing bubble. The collapse of housing prices has led to a collapse of consumer spending, which leads to a rise in unemployment, which in turn erodes the value of commercial property - and so the destruction of wealth spreads. Barack Obama will take office as the most powerful peacetime president in US history - he will be the only man in town with a checkbook. - David P Goldman (Nov 21,'08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Stuff happens in Iraq
The United States military has the ultimate argument against a reasonable withdrawal from Iraq. Its strength lies in that it has nothing to do with the vicissitudes of Iraqi politics, the relative power of Shi'ites or Sunnis, the influence of Iran, or even the riptides of war. It is the simple fact that logistically there is so much "stuff" in Iraq that withdrawal would take at least three years. - Tom Engelhardt (Nov 21,'08)

BOOK REVIEW
Political whores go biblical
Diary of a Jetsetting Call Girl by Tracy Quan
This saucy diary rises like a French bedroom souffle, baked at a high heat, Provence style. But it is often more perspicacious than sexy, using a galaxy of well-drawn characters to passionately tease out the real human emotions and politics of sex work. It also juxtaposes these realities with biblical introspection on Mary Magdalene, the patron saint of all call girls, even ones with $2,500 handbags and Manhattan banker husbands. - Muhammad Cohen (Nov 21,'08)

SPEAKING FREELY
The evil of the US dollar
The failures of the Western economic model, based on a banking system tied to a fiat currency, are now evident for all to see - and suffer. An alternative does exist. - Asif Salahuddin (Nov 20,'08)

The jolly life of a pirate ring
Through guile, fearlessness and terror, a ragtag bunch of modern-day buccaneers from impoverished Somalia is defying the world's great navies, pillaging merchant ships at will, and tightening its grip on essential trade lines to Europe and Asia. The world, despite its romantic notions of free-wheeling pirate kings, has had enough. Is it time for a "Captain Jack Sparrow wing at Guantanamo"? (Nov 20,'08)

The US strikes deeper in Pakistan
The missile attack on Wednesday by a United States Predator drone on a village in North-West Frontier Province is of extreme importance, not so much because it might have killed members of al-Qaeda's inner council, but because it is the first such action outside of Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal areas. The US is now taking the fight to the militants, wherever they might be. The next stop is the cities. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Nov 20,'08)

Asia held hostage on the high seas
It has been centuries since armed robbery on the high seas has taken on the dramatic geopolitical dimensions it has today. But piracy is back, and the brazen recent successes of Somali buccaneers has shocked governments and navies, and thrown oil companies and shipowners into panic. As this week's hijacking of a Saudi oil supertanker shows, the risk of pillage and plunder is getting worse, and leaders from Japan to South Korea to Hong Kong and India want action to protect their trade routes. - Keith Wallis (Nov 19,'08)

Japan economists call for 'Obama bonds'
The prospect of the United States seeking to repay its vast and fast-increasing debt obligations in a devalued dollar is prompting Japanese economists to call for the issue of US Treasuries in other currencies, such as the yen. If Jimmy Carter could take a similar step, why not Barack Obama? - Kosuke Takahashi (Nov 18,'08)

A CHANGE OF BALANCE, Part 2
The party's beginning
Emerging countries, particularly those in Asia, have a brighter chance of making government intervention work if only because of higher profit potential and the low level of debt relative to potential gross domestic product. This is the crux of the argument of turning the world around, not the well-worn ideas of propping up the leading industrialized countries. - Chan Akya (Nov 14,'08)
This concludes a two-part report.
Part 1: The party's over
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David Goldman
(Nov 26, '08)

... the rise in the gold price to a new plateau tells us that the market believes that there is a non-zero probability that the result of the administration’s efforts will be to blow up the world economy.




CHAN AKYA
Debt cold turkey
Perhaps the worst thing you can tell a bankrupt person on a festive day such as Thanksgiving is that worse is yet to come. That precisely is what is in store for people across the global economy as deleveraging will continue to devour every scrap thrown at it by well-meaning but useless government officials around the world.

Putin saves Abramovich's
US safe haven

A reported US$1.8 billion loan by a Russian state bank chaired by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will help Roman Abramovich's Evraz Group pay debts acquired to buy steel assets in North America. The assets' value has been hit by the economic downturn - but they remain a safe haven beyond the reach of Moscow's nationalizing instincts. - John Helmer

Euro-Caspian energy
plans inch forward

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have agreed on the main principles that will allow Kazakh oil to be pumped via Baku to southern Turkey to supply European and other markets, bypassing Russia. Georgia is also to benefit from Caspian energy suppliers striking out from Moscow's embrace. - Robert M Cutler

Bakrie looks exposed
in meltdown

The plummeting fortunes of Indonesian conglomerate Bakrie Brothers have drawn renewed attention to the close ties between industry and politics in the country in the run-up to the 2009 presidential election. - Jacqueline Hicks

FROM THE BLOG
Risk on the 'many' side
The scale of the United States authorities' new obligations, and attendant risks, put us in the position of the tribe that could count "one, two, three, and many". The recent gold price rise, modest so far, is a warning of the heightened risk of the world economy blowing up. - David P Goldman



Spengler's latest essay, Obama's one-trick wizards [Nov 24], is just brilliant - really extraordinary, and dead-on. Word for word, sentence for sentence, it's precisely what I would have written - if only I had your brains. Really, great job.
Herb Meyer

The article, A Buddhist messiah in Maoist Nepal? [Nov 14], was quite informative as well as being inspiring to all Buddhists and peace-loving people around the globe. The contributors of the article are to be thanked and appreciated.
Dibakar Pant
St Paul, USA
   Go to Letters to the Editor

On The Edge
[Re Bush comfortable on the SOFA, Nov 25] US interests are best served by staying, which [US President George W] Bush's lackluster attempts at achieving a SOFA with the Iraqis has at least managed to prove doable. The US will remain in Iraq and diplomatically engaged in the Middle East with Arabs and Persians for a long time to come.
Robster
   Go to the readers' forum topic, SOFA



1. Obama's one-trick wizards

2. US military ripe for a fight with Obama

3. A brave new world awaits

4. Obama not a ghost of Clinton past

5. Geithner a balm for Japan's Clinton trauma

6. G-20 weenies on a golden spit

7. Bush comfortable on the SOFA

8. Finance, the American way

9. Towards a future Wall Street

10. IMF's double-edged rescue for Pakistan

11. Regions won't dance to Beijing's tune

(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Nov 25, 2008)




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